Context (January 5, 2024)
Welcome to the first Home & Away of 2024. I want to add a Happy New Year, even if we all know that this could very well be a difficult year both at home and away. Assuming that turns out to be the case, I hope this weekly missive at least makes the country and the world more understandable, if not more enjoyable.
I’m writing this from Down Under, where I’ve been for nearly two weeks now. There’s lots to like here in Australia, but if I had to single out a few things, I’d go with the flat white (coffee), the grilled cheese at Bills in Double Bay in Sydney (nothing less than life-altering), the early (9:00 pm) fireworks over Sydney Harbor on New Year’s Eve for kids and those of us who are not wild about staying up late, the ocean swimming, and much else, starting with the people. I would enthusiastically nominate Australia to be an ally, except it already is one—and a staunch one at that.
Iowa, Harvard, & Mexico
A lot has happened in the two weeks since the last newsletter. In addition to Colorado, Maine has also moved to keep Donald Trump off its primary ballot. Regardless of how many states join this effort, I continue to think this is a questionable application of the law and bad politics. On a related but more immediate note, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary are nearly upon us. Trump will have the nomination pretty much sewn up if he wins both. Nikki Haley appears to be the only candidate positioned to score an upset, something she could do by placing second in Iowa, winning New Hampshire, and going into her home state of South Carolina with some momentum. A long shot, but not impossible. It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, her answer to the question of what caused the Civil War (she initially did not mention slavery) has on voters.
And I see that Claudine Gay’s tenure as Harvard’s president was cut short, which was the right outcome given her handling of October 7’s fallout and credible plagiarism allegations that appeared to violate Harvard’s own honor code. Being a university president is one of the worst jobs in America, involving the need to deal with tenured faculty, precious students, fickle boards, demanding parents and alumni, a large administrative staff, and disaffected townspeople. That said, it was painfully clear that Gay had lost the necessary legitimacy, what the Chinese call the mandate of heaven, if she ever can be said to have possessed it.
Now, though, is the moment to pivot away from Gay’s individual failings and focus on bigger issues such as universities staking out political positions (they should not), the DEI complex (it needs to be redirected and reduced), and free speech guidelines (they ought to be quite permissive in what they allow and consistent in what they ban). Schools such as the University of Chicago offer a way forward.
At least as important, universities need to revisit the question of what they teach and demand of their students. I would argue for requiring courses in civics, information literacy, and global literacy for all students, regardless of their chosen major. Those in higher education ought to take advantage of the current context and look hard at what they do and how they do it. Otherwise, we will see further erosion of trust in this country’s elite institutions and the emergence of a generation without the requisite knowledge or understanding required to lead a democracy here at home or away.
The visit to Mexico by the Secretary of State, the Homeland Security Secretary, and the White House Homeland Security Advisor does not seem to have accomplished much if you go by the two governments’ joint statement. There is too much talk of root causes for emigration (which are too intractable to be meaningfully addressed this decade) and not enough about specific policies that can be introduced and implemented in short order, and well before November 2024, to stem the tide of illegal migration. As a result, I continue to believe the border, along with age and inflation, will constitute serious political headwinds to President Biden’s re-election effort.
Gaza & Beyond
The New York Times ran several important pieces on the Middle East over the holidays. There was the extraordinary, difficult-to-read story on Hamas’s weaponization of sexual violence on October 7, a well-documented, purposeful, and depraved act of both cruelty and policy that does not seem to have caught the attention of those marching “for Palestine” or of many women’s groups. Beyond ignoring Hamas’ abuse of Israeli women, these same groups also seem not to know or care about the nature and quality of Hamas rule over Gaza these past two decades. If Hamas had put a fraction of the resources and effort it put into building tunnels into building a modern economy and society, Gaza would be a fundamentally different place than it is today, and its citizens would be far better off.
There was also the Times story about what happened (or didn’t) on October 7 in terms of Israel’s military preparedness and then response. The crux of the story is that there was no plan for the sort of attack that took place, even though there were many warnings that such an attack was imminent. The IDF response was improvised, disorganized, and woefully inadequate. What seemed to lie at the core of this failure was a misreading of Hamas (an underestimation fueled by arrogance) and a focus on the West Bank and the interests of settlers, an essential constituency for Netanyahu’s coalition, above all else.
As for where we are now or where we are likely to be in the Middle East, I find it difficult to discern grounds for optimism. Israel’s prime minister is preparing for a long occupation of Gaza while several of his ministers are speaking openly of forcing or transferring Palestinian civilians out of Gaza permanently, a stance correctly criticized by the State Department. This Israeli government has no interest in opening a political process that would empower Palestinians in either Gaza or the West Bank.
The Biden administration needs to stop hoping against hope that this will somehow change and instead take the initiative by drafting a United Nations Security Council resolution that sets forth a conditional roadmap for addressing reasonable Palestinian political ambitions. President Biden should also speak directly to the Israeli people, spelling out the costs of Israel’s current trajectory and the benefits for Israelis of an alternative approach in Gaza and beyond.
One last thing on the Middle East: the chances for a widening of the conflict have gone up as the war in Gaza continues at an intense level, paired with Israel’s assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Lebanon, the pressure on Israel’s government to act forcefully to make the north of the country safe enough for Israelis to return home, Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping, and reported advances in Iran’s nuclear program that further reduce the amount of time needed to field one or more nuclear devices. Whenever there are multiple fault lines and decision-makers, the chance of something destabilizing happening goes up, and this is one of those times.
It is impossible to write about the past two weeks and not say a few things about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia has increased its attacks on non-military targets in Ukraine, most likely to break its will to resist. I don’t see that happening. If anything, it could have the opposite effect on Ukrainians. More relevant though is the question of Ukraine’s ability to resist, something that would be greatly improved by its shifting to a more defensive-oriented strategy and by the U.S. Congress approving the Biden administration’s request for a large, additional tranche of aid.
End Notes
I began this edition of Home & Away with politics and will end there as well. My previous newsletter included a piece I had written looking back on 2023. I include it here in case you missed it, or worse yet, read it and forgot what it said. Just to balance things out, I am including in this newsletter another piece (also for Project Syndicate) looking ahead to 2024. In a year of many elections, the most meaningful by far will be the one taking place in the United States in November; indeed, it promises to be the most significant domestic and international event of 2024. Away, the first major election is taking place next week, as Taiwanese voters head to the polls to choose their next president.
Let me mention in this context (that word will never be the same) “A Citizen’s Guide to Preserving American Democracy,” the documentary based on The Bill of Obligations that premiered on January 2 and is now available on PBS.org. Nothing is more important, especially this year, than encouraging more Americans to become better informed and more involved in our politics. Ideally the film and associated learning materials being produced will help viewers do just that. To say a lot depends on it, both at home and away, is a gross understatement.
Last and certainly least I will make good on my promise to say something about my golfing experience here. I only got in two rounds because of some heavy rain and a slip on a wet marble floor that did in my hamstring. But I had a glorious day, filled with sun and wind, playing New South Wales, Australia’s version of Cypress Point. I then went to Melbourne and got in a round at Royal Melbourne’s East course. Subtle, difficult golf given the greens. Speaking of which, I was surprised by how slow the greens were at both courses—and frustrated by my inability to always remember to convert meters to yards in figuring out what club to use. Played around bogey golf in both venues; not bad, but not great. Lots of good shots and quite a few pars to feel good about, but as always, the score hurt by one or two bad drives, errant chips, and one or two 3-putts. Still, hope springs eternal.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Tuesday, January 2: PBS A Citizen’s Guide to Preserving Democracy
Wednesday, January 4: MSNBC Morning Joe on the PBS documentary A Citizen's Guide to Preserving Democracy
Articles
A Year of War and Little Peace (Project Syndicate)
The World in 2024 (Project Syndicate)
Interview and Podcast
Navigating geopolitics with Richard Haass (Interview on Inside the Strategy Room podcast from McKinsey with transcript)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens