Elections, There & Here (June 7, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. It has been a week of remembrances, from the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings that marked the beginning of the end of the Second World War to the 77th anniversary of Secretary of State George Marshall’s Harvard commencement address that launched the plan bearing his name. But I’ve decided to focus instead on four more current topics: some recent election results around the world; the ever-confusing, ever-worrisome Middle East; our own elections here in the United States, now just five months away; and the latest issue that seems to be capturing the attention of students on American campuses.
Elections, Elections, & Elections
There was one landslide, an expected landslide that turned out to be anything but, and something of a defeat. The landslide was in Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum of the Morena party handily won the race (with some 60 percent of the vote) to succeed the term-limited Andrés Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO). Much of the commentary has focused on the fact that she is a woman who happens to be Jewish and partly American-educated, and while all true, her personal background does not tell us a whole lot. It is difficult to know what she will do as president, as during her campaign she tried to thread the needle of representing herself as an extension of her popular and powerful predecessor while also being her own person.
There are three areas of concern. Her and Morena’s victory was so big that she could now enact broad constitutional change. The question is whether such changes would lead to a concentration of economic and political power in the executive that would pose a threat to Mexico’s democracy. The second is what political role AMLO will retain for himself, meaning what will he do in the public eye but also behind the scenes to influence his successor.
The third—and in some ways most fundamental—question is what Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, will be willing and able to do regarding Mexico’s serious internal flaws. So much of what captures our attention when it comes to foreign policy involves strong states. But Mexico is a weak one, where the country’s security apparatus along with its judicial and penal systems are no match for the cartels and gangs. Some thirty thousand Mexicans are murdered each year; dozens of candidates were assassinated in the recent elections. Beyond the devastating loss of life, this internal disorder threatens to undermine Mexico’s ability both to be a responsible neighbor and an economic partner in a position to realize its considerable potential as U.S. companies pursue near-shoring opportunities.
India, the world’s largest democracy, also just completed its election, and unlike Mexico, the results were a surprise. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi became just the second individual in the country’s history to win a third term, he and his ruling BJP party did not win the outright majority that was widely predicted. This relatively poor showing owes to voters’ frustrations with economic inequality, high unemployment, inflation, a lack of enthusiasm for Modi’s illiberal and Hindu-nationalist agenda, and perhaps weariness with a personality that has dominated the country for a decade.
Modi and the BJP will now have no choice but to rule with an assortment of partners that do not share all of their agenda. The stock market plummeted over the prospects, but I actually think the result should be welcomed. Indian democracy has asserted itself, the country’s secular identity is likely to endure, and the benefits of its growing economy might come to be more widely distributed.
The third election took place in South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC), the party of the revolution that has ruled the country for its entire post-Apartheid history, was denied a majority. It will only be able to stay in government if it forms a coalition with one or more of its rivals. This outcome could be a blessing or a crisis.
The case for the former stems from the experiences of Mexico and Japan. In both countries one party (the PRI in Mexico, the LDP in Japan) was the permanent party of government. Over the decades, that led to corruption, illiberalism, and a lack of policy innovation. Their losing an election and the subsequent rotation of political power that moved them out of government ultimately proved to be good for the country and arguably for them as well. This is precisely what is needed in South Africa, where the ANC has shown itself to be better at revolution than at governing, with unemployment and crime are off the charts. South Africa, along with Nigeria, is one of the two most important countries in Africa, and an election that brings the promise of much-needed change is a good thing. But a great deal will depend on coalition politics and whether the new government that emerges can in fact govern.
More Middle East
I have taken to calling this region the muddle east, and this week it has lived up to that name and then some. The big news came last Friday, just hours after Home and Away appeared in your inbox. President Biden announced a three-phase plan, which was portrayed as a major development and something that the Israeli government had both developed and signed off on. Phase one was to last six weeks and include a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza, a release of some hostages (including all Americans held in Gaza) in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in humanitarian assistance. Phase two (to be negotiated) would bring about a permanent end of hostilities, the return of any remaining hostages, and Israeli military withdrawal from all of Gaza. The third phase would involve the reconstruction of Gaza.
President Biden used the occasion to appeal directly to the Israeli people, urging them not to allow the moment and the possibilities to be lost. But a week later, there is little if any progress to point to. Neither the Israeli government nor Hamas has signed off on the plan; to the contrary, the Israeli government has backed away from it, with the country’s UN ambassador reportedly telling the Biden administration it opposes the U.S. Security Council resolution draft supporting the ceasefire proposal. Hamas for its part continues to demand more up front (including a permanent ceasefire) than is on offer. The plan itself has parts not yet negotiated and leaves important issues unaddressed. Phase two remains a sticking point, with Israel insisting it will not agree to a long-term ceasefire while Hamas remains in power and Hamas demanding a firm commitment to end the war as a precondition for negotiations. In short, what was marketed as a breakthrough turned out to be more of the same.
So where does that leave things? I would anticipate the war in Gaza will continue for months, albeit at a considerably lower level. The greatest chance of renewed conflict on a large scale appears to be shifting to the north, where Israel seems to be preparing for a confrontation with Hezbollah. If so, we are about to see a demonstration of one of my rules of the Middle East: things get worse before they get even worse.
American Politics
The advantage historians are meant to have over journalists is the passage of time, which in principle should provide perspective on events. A week has passed since the Trump verdict, which isn’t the length of time historians normally enjoy, but it is something. The verdict appears to be helping Biden somewhat in the polls while also firing up Trump’s base, which largely perceives the case to be an effort to find Trump guilty of anything to frustrate his political aspirations.
As for where things stand in the race, my sense is Trump is still somewhat ahead, Republicans are on track to take the Senate, and the House is in play. The possibility Republicans could run the table, that is, win the White House and both chambers of Congress at a time when the Supreme Court has become more radical than conservative, leaning heavily in the direction of the former president and his acolytes, ought to be taken seriously. Checks and balances may be in short supply. This would leave the fate of the United States and American democracy in the hands of individuals whose character is suspect, who too often put their own ambitions and the interests of their party before this country.
President Biden did one thing this week that should help his chances of keeping his job, namely, announcing a new policy for the border. The near out-of-control border situation is regularly cited by voters of all leanings as a top concern. Along with the war in Gaza and his age, it is a source of serious headwinds in the way of Biden’s re-election.
The new policy (based, by the way, on the same legal authority that Trump used) will end requests for asylum once the average daily number of people crossing into the country reaches 2,500. The border will only reopen when the number falls below 1,500. Given that the current number of people coming into the country averages around 4,000 per day, the new policy is tantamount to an immediate closing of the border.
The new policy will no doubt be challenged in the courts and is already drawing the ire of progressives. But it is essential nonetheless. Immigration needs to be regulated in terms of numbers; criteria need to be set for who can enter. What has been taking place over the past three years is neither desirable nor sustainable. Yes, the United States has obligations to offer entry to those who qualify for asylum, but there is reason to believe that most of those who have recently entered do not. My principal complaint with the new policy is that Biden did not implement it sooner—much sooner—as in the day after Republicans abandoned bipartisan border legislation earlier this year when Donald Trump made it clear he preferred the situation to fester as it would hurt President Biden’s standing and therefore help his.
An Idea
I came across an article in the New York Times the other day suggesting that deans at a good many universities were struggling with the question of what to do regarding penalties for students who violated school rules concerning protests, who were arrested, or both. Some administrators believe denying degrees or calling for expulsion to be overly punitive, while others argue that students made informed choices and now must face the consequences if rules are to have any deterrent value in the future. Not surprisingly, many of the students involved are calling for all charges to be dropped.
In many instances (where violence or the destruction of property was not evident), expulsion or degree denial does seem a bit draconian, while simply letting those who knowingly broke the rules off without paying a price sends a terrible message. So let me suggest another path: remedial education.
More specifically, I would recommend that protesters who violated the rules pass an examination in two areas to be reinstated. First, they would be required to demonstrate competency in civics, including the precepts of civil disobedience, which calls for those who break the law to pay a price. They would be required to read Henry David Thoreau and Martin Luther King, Jr. along with other works on civility and American democracy. And second, they would be required to pass an exam on the history of the Middle East. We are talking about educational institutions after all, so what better way forward than to insist on education relevant to the behaviors judged to be unacceptable?
An Ask
As you may have noticed, this newsletter is both free and represents 100% of what I am publishing each week. There is no additional product or service available to those prepared to pay. And for now I have no plans whatsoever to change this, as my motive is not to get rich but to develop my ideas and get them in front of a large number of people. Which brings me to my ask. Assuming you find Home & Away of some value, which I’d like to think is a not unreasonable assumption since you are subscribing to it or at least reading it, I ask that you mention it to or share it with someone (or ones) you think would find it interesting and worth the modest amount of time it takes to read or listen to each week. That’s it. Thanks for considering my request…and thanks even more for doing it if you choose to. Have a good weekend.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens