Mud (November 1, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. This will be a somewhat abbreviated version, in part because I’m coming off of a week in Saudi Arabia, in part because I figure you've already read more than enough about the election.
Democracy
Speaking of which, the polls are no more revealing today than they were a week ago when I described them as opaque. With the outcome still very much up in the air, each candidate is closing in on the finish line. Both are spending time in the swing states (especially Pennsylvania) but also states where they know they cannot win but can nonetheless put on events with the potential to generate national publicity. Trump put on a big event at Madison Square Garden, a gathering that slinged some truly offensive mud that may well have garnered him the sort of publicity that will hurt his chances. Meanwhile Harris went to Texas for a celebrity-filled evening that did her no harm and may have done some good given that being in Texas, a state with one of the country’s strictest abortion laws, provided a compelling backdrop for her to attack Trump on the issue.
Joe Biden however did Harris no favor by appearing—at least to Trump supporters—to call them garbage, the term also used to describe Puerto Rico by a not-at-all-funny comedian who appeared at Trump’s MSG event. We'll know soon enough what, if any, difference any of this made. I have reached the point where I would not be surprised by any outcome, but my admittedly unscientific gut leads me to believe recent days have been good for Harris as women, Latinos, and other voting groups that were the target of the MSG comedian’s jokes are offended by what they see and hear. It may also be that many Americans just don’t want to go back to the sort of exhausting chaos a second Trump presidency would likely deliver. Trump’s recent comment that Liz Cheney should have “guns drawn on her face” has likely only reinforced this trend.
I find it impossible to write about the election and not mention the Washington Post. Normally it is endorsements that make news, but in this case, it was an eleventh-hour non-endorsement. To argue, as the publisher and editor have, that the newspaper simply decided to get out of the endorsement business might have had some plausibility a year ago, but not coming as it did just days before the election. The decision not to endorse and the defense of that decision have sent the message that the ownership, aka Jeff Bezos, determined endorsing Harris over Trump would be too costly to his business interests should Trump prevail next week. That the Post's tagline is "Democracy Dies in Darkness" is as good an example of unintended irony as you are likely to find any time soon.
According to reports, upwards of 250,000 readers have since dropped their subscriptions. I appreciate why, but I don’t plan to follow suit, as despite this unprincipled and cowardly act the (Washington) Post remains a very good newspaper. I would feel differently if, like the other Post published here in New York, the “news” section was little more than an expanded editorial page, but I have not seen that in the Washington Post and hope that will forever remain the case.
While the polls at home still reflect a lack of clarity, the election in Japan is yet another sign that this is a difficult moment for incumbents. The ruling LDP fared worse than predicted, and voter turnout was low, both suggesting a desire to send a message to the scandal-plagued ruling party as well as for change more broadly. Since the election gave no party a majority, there are lingering questions as to the duration of this uncertain period and whether it will come to weaken Japan’s newfound foreign policy leadership, one that includes rapprochement with South Korea and a more muscular approach toward China.
Opportunity
In the Middle East, the big story is that Israel finally retaliated against Iran for launching some 180 ballistic missiles at the country a few weeks back. It would appear that Israel heeded the advice of the Biden administration (and, for what it's worth, yours truly) and eschewed targeting energy installations or nuclear sites in favor of taking out facilities related to missile production and advanced air defenses. This approach initially appeared to have threaded the needle: it was enough to restore deterrence (especially as it degraded Iranian air defenses, leaving Tehran more vulnerable than ever to future Israeli incursions) but not too much as to pressure Iran to respond to Israel's response. To that effect, in the immediate aftermath of the attack Iran’s supreme leader urged the country not to overreact to the strikes. Now, however, some Iranian officials are publicly vowing to hit Israel before Election Day. It increasingly seems as if Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (the IRGC) are something of a state within a state, something that bodes poorly for regional stability.
Meanwhile, Israel appears intent on increasing pressure on Gaza, continuing with large military operations that lead to large numbers of civilian casualties and limiting the flow of food into the territory, in spite of the Biden administration’s warning just weeks ago that doing so could bring Israel out of compliance with U.S. policies on military aid required by all recipients. The Knesset decision to both bar the UN relief agency for Palestinians from operating out of Israel and prohibit Israeli officials from communicating with the agency threaten to make a bad humanitarian situation worse. More and more it seems Gaza’s future will be one defined by Israeli military operations and occupation.
On yet another front, Israel seems to be debating whether to take half a loaf in the North and accept a ceasefire that entails Hezbollah pulling back from its side of the border and assurances that Israel could take military action should the Lebanese army and the UN Peacekeeping Force fail to act against Hezbollah violations. The alternative would be to continue attacking Hezbollah, although what more this would accomplish than has already been accomplished is unclear.
I left Saudi Arabia—where I spoke at and attended the eighth annual Future Investment Initiative or “Davos in the Desert” conference—with several takeaways. The mood in the country is positive and then some. There is a pervasive sense of optimism and purpose in the Kingdom that I have not seen in my many visits over the past four decades. Economic growth is above 4 percent. MBS, the Crown Prince, is widely seen (and credited) as a modernizer who has improved the quality of life there.
Still, events in Gaza have had a profound effect. Before October 7, the younger generation around the Arab world, and even in the Kingdom, had little knowledge of or sympathy toward the Palestinians. They were more than ready to go along with Saudi normalization with Israel. Things have now changed, and that shift limits the options of governments, even nondemocratic ones. More than one Saudi pointedly reminded me that the ruler of Saudi Arabia has a second title, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, which means the Crown Prince, the de facto but not yet de jure ruler of the country, must tread warily. I see no evidence that Israel has taken these short and long-term costs into account as it continues its campaign in Gaza.
Several of my interlocutors noted with more than a little wistfulness that they no longer recognize the United States. They are worried about the political and social trends here along with future U.S. policy. They list a series of decisions that make them question America’s reliability: Obama’s infamous red line in Syria, the failure of the Trump administration to defend Saudi Arabia when Iran attacked its oil installations, the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden’s pivot from calling the Kingdom a pariah to treating it as a good friend, and the Biden administration’s failure to rein in Israel after October 7. Meanwhile, the increasingly wide gaps between our candidates only increase American unpredictability. My guess is all this will reinforce the Saudi inclination to pursue a somewhat more independent foreign policy and continue building ties with China and Russia, keeping diplomatic lines open with Iran, and strengthening its own military while staying close to us when it suits their purposes.
A final more optimistic point. The Saudis (and I agree) see this as a moment of some opportunity in a region not normally associated with that word. Hamas and Hezbollah are both much diminished, and Iran has been exposed as something of a paper tiger, unable to protect its proxies or defend itself against Israel. The question, though, is whether Israel is willing to take advantage of the possibilities before they fade—there is not a lot of optimism here—and, if not, whether the United States and Saudi Arabia can.
Demography
I want to encourage every reader of this newsletter to read an article in the current edition of Foreign Affairs. Written by Nicholas Eberstadt, it is the best assessment of demographic trends throughout the world (above all, depopulation and aging), the causes, and the likely consequences. It will shape how you see the world and what we’re likely to see emerge in it.
Let me make two other recommendations. The first, to be found in that same issue of Foreign Affairs, is by Karim Sadjadpour. It sets up Saudi Arabia and Iran as representing two competing visions for the region: one that looks to the future and seeks to modernize and selectively open up, the other that seeks to hold tight to the past and more specifically its 1979 revolution and anti-U.S., anti-Israel foundations. It is a smart, well-written essay.
The other, from the New York Times, “Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action,” highlights the continuing strength of what political scientists term “sorting,” namely, the growing tendency of Americans to move to communities or states where they find likeminded fellow citizens. The trend (which I discuss at length in The Bill of Obligations) both reflects and deepens our social and political divide. It cannot be prevented, but it does strengthen the case for both mandatory civics education that reminds us what we have in common and for expanded public service opportunities that bring people together who otherwise would not meet and come to know one another.
Catastrophe
More than one hundred years have passed (136 to be exact) since Ernest Thayer wrote the poem “Casey at the Bat.” But it feels fresh. Painfully Fresh. In this case it was the mighty, or maybe not so mighty, Yankees who disappointed. They were defeated in five games, but they would have ended Wednesday evening up three games to two if it had not been for some sloppy play and inexplicable managing that doomed them in the first game, and then all sorts of defensive lapses that undid a five run lead in the fifth inning of what turned out to be the fifth and final game. It didn’t help that Aaron Judge, their best player during the regular season, proved to be Mr. September rather than Mr. October. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a very good team, but the Yankees lost this series as much as the Dodgers and Freddie Freeman won it.
Which brings me back to “Casey at the Bat,” slightly amended here:
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
the band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;
and somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
but there is no joy in Mudville—the Yankees have lost out.
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Richard Haass in the news
Saturday, October 26: Prescott News
Wednesday, October 30: Future Investment Initiative Institute
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens