Wartime (April 5, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. It is April 5, 2024. The not so new year is officially one-quarter over, which means the U.S. elections are just seven months away.
The War at Six Months
Speaking of milestones, we have reached the six-month mark in the war between Israel and Hamas. It is difficult to imagine that half a year has passed since the horrific day that was October 7. While Israel remains consumed by the attacks that killed some 1,200 civilians and the continuing hostage crisis, much of the world has moved on, focusing instead on the Israeli military response that has left some 13,000 Hamas fighters and another twenty thousand Gazan civilians dead.
The Biden administration for its part still seems to be looking for a middle ground on Gaza. It wants to be supportive of Israel yet rein in its worst excesses. Sometimes compromises are the best approach. Not here. Its words of criticism are too tough for the most ardent backers of IsraeI’s government while its deeds are not tough enough for the critics of what Israel is doing. Indeed, its verbal criticisms, however harsh, are undermined by its repeated approval of arms transfers to Israel—these transfers, that now number over a hundred, seem to come with no conditions on how they can be used or consequences if they are used in a manner inconsistent with U.S. law. And there was no meaningful U.S. reaction to the announcement two weeks ago that an additional two thousand acres of land in the West Bank had been expropriated by Israel for settlement expansion—even though such land confiscations make the prospects for a Palestinian state even less likely.
The question is whether this has changed (and, if so, to what extent) in the wake of Thursday’s conversation between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu. The president pressed for an immediate ceasefire, increased humanitarian aid flows (which Israeli responded to by opening a new land border crossing for aid to enter Gaza only hours later), and for Israel doing much more to avoid harming aid workers. He also indicated that U.S. support for Israel would be affected if all this did not come to pass. But the demands were vague as to what precisely was expected of Israel and what exactly the United States would do if it judged Israel did not act accordingly. All this is likely to come to a head if Israel decides to proceed with its offensive in Rafah.
I appeared on Fareed Zakaria’s program on CNN last Sunday (you can find a link at the bottom of this newsletter), and a few viewers objected to my use of the word “indiscriminate” to describe Israel’s use of armed force in Gaza. We can debate whether “indiscriminate” goes too far, but for those who maintain it does, I would challenge them to come up with an alternative word or phrase that explains how 20,000 civilians and some two hundred aid workers could have been killed in the process of targeting 13,000 Hamas fighters. Something is clearly wrong—seriously wrong. Either Israel has not made a priority of avoiding civilian casualties, its decision-making process is deeply flawed, or both.
The airstrike that killed seven aid workers employed by World Central Kitchen received global attention and even generated an apology from the Israeli government, but that type of strike unfortunately does not appear to be an exception. What this latest strike will do is further hamper humanitarian efforts, exacerbate the food shortage in Gaza, and further damage Israel’s reputation and standing. The World Central Kitchen, which was responsible for 60 percent of non-governmental aid deliveries prior to the attack, is now suspending its Gaza operations and multiple other aid groups have announced they are following suit. That Israel investigated the incident and removed or reprimanded several officers is welcome, but much more important is that it institute rules and procedures that reduce the chance that its actions will kill aid workers or civilians more generally.
It is not just that the Gaza war could well continue for months or longer; it is also that the war could expand. The situation in Israel’s north, where some 60,000 Israelis have been forced to leave their homes given actual or potential rocket attacks by Hezbollah from Lebanon, is arguably untenable for any Israeli government. The question is whether there might be a diplomatic option as an alternative to either the status quo or military action.
Giving further impetus to the potential for war-widening is the Israeli strike in Syria that killed several senior commanders of Iran’s Quds force, including those who were responsible for overseeing operations in Syria and Lebanon. I understand Israel’s logic behind the strike—it raises the costs to Iran of carrying out a war against Israel through its proxies—but it also increases the odds that Iran will open a new front in Israel or elsewhere in the world.
The Brewing War Inside Israel
Meanwhile, signs are emerging of a changing political landscape inside Israel. Large protests have returned to the streets. We are seeing a clear divide over war priorities. There are those (beginning with the prime minister) who want to prosecute the war against Hamas and those who want the government to prioritize the return of the remaining hostages, estimated to number 134, although fewer than one hundred are thought to still be alive. My sense is this latter push reflects a fear that many of the hostages will be kept until the war ends even if another temporary ceasefire that paves the way for the return of some hostages is negotiated. This thinking might well be right, as Hamas obviously sees the hostages as both leverage capable of affecting what Israel does militarily and a means to bring about the end of an Israeli military presence in Gaza.
Second, traditional politics have re-emerged in Israel. Long simmering tensions in society, temporarily pushed beneath the surface by the war, have re-emerged. There is a growing resentment toward the Haredi or ultra-orthodox community, estimated to constitute some 13 or 14 percent of Israeli society but projected to make up twice that or even more by mid-century.
Several factors account for these deep-rooted divisions. To begin with, Haredim are exempt from military duty in a country that requires several years of universal service, decades in the reserves, and call-ups if and when Israel finds itself at war.
More broadly, the ultra-orthodox are seen by many more secular Israelis as free riders. Their communities and schools receive enormous economic subsidies from the state while many do not work or contribute to the economy. They live separately and differently. Certain sects neither support Zionism nor the Jewish state.
It is common for the ultra-orthodox to maintain that Israel exists so Jews can study the Torah. One Chief Sephardic rabbi stated he would tell his followers to leave the country rather than agree to serve in the military. Ultra-orthodox leaders claim that service would take young Haredim away from study and require men to be in close proximity with women, even though the IDF has created separate units that could accommodate ultra-orthodox practices.
Adding to the friction is that religious political parties wield disproportionate power in Israel’s political system. This is a result of Israel’s parliamentary system and the fact that no party has ever been able to form the government without coalition partners. Today, the largest party in the Knesset (Netanyahu’s Likud) only holds slightly more than half the seats it needs to govern. Smaller parties are often kingmakers, regardless of how out of touch they are with majority preferences. What is more, the sway of these religious parties will only grow with time as their share of the population and number of Knesset seats grows.
The prime minister is searching for a compromise on the conscription issue as it has the potential to bring down his government. A second member of his wartime cabinet, Benny Gantz, is also now calling for early elections, the last thing Netanyahu wants as they could prove to be a referendum on his performance leading up to October 7 and since. If Netanyahu is defeated, he not only loses power but also protection from the multiple legal charges that have been brought against him. He is pushing for the country’s focus to remain on defeating Hamas even though I would argue it cannot be defeated, much less marginalized politically, with military force alone. But the prime minister has resisted reaching out to Palestinians politically lest it shatter his right-wing government, many of whose members strenuously oppose the emergence of a Palestinian state.
The Political War Here
There has been a good deal of focus on Donald Trump’s legal woes, his Bible sales, and any number of other excesses. I get it. But polling indicates that he continues to enjoy considerable support. Something is going on that we ignore at our peril.
Trump is successfully zeroing in on the out-of-control southern border, crime, and wokeness. He is exploiting the cultural gap between the parties, showing some political touch in attending the funeral of a New York City police officer who was killed in the line of duty while Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton were hanging out in midtown with Hollywood stars and raising $25 million.
Democrats, and progressives in particular, are all too often perceived as elitist, anti-police, weak on the border, and backing prosecutors more concerned with the rights of criminals than the public’s right to security. Visiting a drug store with tubes of toothpaste behind lock and key is a reminder that something is seriously amiss. So too is evidence that truancy is at record levels. Small things add up; that after all was the premise of the no longer popular but demonstrated to be effective broken-windows approach to policing.
I am not suggesting for a minute that Republicans, much less Trump, have serious answers to these and other domestic challenges. But in an age with pervasive unhappiness over how things are going and heading (despite evidence that the U.S. economy is doing quite well and that in a good number of big cities many forms of crime are down), populists enjoy real political advantages. Indeed, the danger is that pessimism over the current situation and trends leads people to overlook the flaws of the opposition and embrace them out of fear and frustration. This is what explains populism elsewhere. It could well happen here.
A Break From the Wars
It is a great time of year for anyone who cares about sports, including yours truly. Even though it’s April, I will start with March Madness and college basketball. We are now down to the final four for both the men and women. Two schools (Connecticut and North Carolina State) are represented in each. The women square off tonight, the men Saturday evening. The winners play Monday evening.
The smart money is on the men from the University of Connecticut and the undefeated women’s team from the University of South Carolina, although Iowa with the remarkable Caitlin Clark is a close second. The bigger story is women’s basketball itself, which is pulling in record audiences and generating enormous enthusiasm.
Professional basketball is in the homestretch of its long 82-game regular season, to be followed by its long post-season. This year there are the Boston Celtics and everyone else. I was hoping my Knicks, in their 51st year of rebuilding, could give the Celtics a run for their money, but injuries to three of their best players keep getting in the way. But I am prepared to make the case that Jalen Brunson deserves serious consideration for this year’s MVP.
Baseball is under way. My Yankees are off to a strong 6-1 start after sweeping their opening four-game series against the hated Houston Astros, who deserve their critics given their history of cheating. But the two best teams this year may well be the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Baltimore Orioles, now owned by my friend David Rubenstein. If my Yankees cannot win it all, I will be pulling for the O’s as they have built a quality team, and their city deserves some good news.
The professional football draft is just weeks away. This year’s crop includes several promising quarterbacks. For my troubled Giants, the question is whether to go with a quarterback in the first round even though they just spent a fortune on the oft-injured and oft-frustrating one they already have. I would argue against, but here, as elsewhere, I don’t call the shots.
Last but never least is golf. We are less than a week away from the Masters. The favorite is the world’s best golfer, Scottie Scheffler, who last Sunday lost his chance to win three straight tournaments when he missed a 5’4” putt on the final (72nd) hole. I detected a lack of conviction in his stroke, something weekend hackers such as yours truly recognize. It made me feel better. Not schadenfreude. Just commiseration. Empathy. Sympathy. Call it the brotherhood of imperfection. Which is what golf and much of life if you think about it tend to be.
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Richard Haass in the news
Sunday, March 31: Fareed Zakaria GPS
Monday, April 1: Elliot H. Stein Lecture in Ethics, Gephardt Institute for Civic and Community Engagement, Washington University in St. Louis
Wednesday, April 3: MSNBC Morning Joe on the ramifications of the Israeli strike that killed aid workers in Gaza, protests in Israel, and Biden administration’s response.
Thursday, April 4: CNN The Lead with Jake Tapper, NPR All Things Considered
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