2024, American Democracy & Extended Deterrence
This week’s Home & Away begins with the topic likely to dominate political conversation in this country for the next year and a half, namely, the 2024 elections and the presidential election in particular. This week saw President Biden announce his intention to stand for a second term. He faces little opposition within the Democratic Party other than two outsiders: Marianne Williamson (not quite sure how to describe her) and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who sad to say is a serial trafficker in conspiracies. Biden should win the nomination handily.
On the Republican side there is the 45th president, former governors Nikki Haley and Asa Hutchinson, and a long and growing list of de facto or potential candidates that includes former vice president Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among others. Right now I’d describe Trump as the favorite with DeSantis in second place. One question is whether Trump gets indicted one or more additional times and, if so, what if any effect that would have. A second question is how DeSantis performs as a candidate and whether he can pose a serious challenge to Trump.
Biden clearly matches up better versus Trump than he does against Republican candidates of the next generation. It is quite possible that his expectation that Trump would be the Republican nominee contributed to his decision to run in his 80s for a second term that would end when he is 86.
But a second faceoff with Trump is no slam dunk for Biden. Presidential elections tend to be referenda. Biden should come out fine if a majority of voters have Trump’s personality and Republican radicalism on abortion and guns on their minds. But he could be in trouble if the election turns on the mood of the country and its trajectory, which, because of inflation, crime, drugs, and a broken immigration system, is anything but good.
The most important thing to say about the election has to do with its stakes. Beyond immediate policy differences between the two men, what could be the most profound difference is their reverence for democracy or, in the case of Trump, his lack of it. Democracy may not appear on the ballot but it most certainly is. The notion of Donald Trump presiding over celebrations of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence leaves me in no mood to celebrate.
As for Away, I’d start by saying that what I have just written about will be topic number one not just here but in many other countries, certainly inside their governments. Much (but not all) of the world will be pulling for a Biden win, but non-Americans get no vote even though they too will be meaningfully affected by the outcome here.
The big Away issue this week was the state visit of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. The visit came on the heels of some awkward revelations about the bilateral relationship that suggested the United States is monitoring official conversations in South Korea. Policy-wise, there have been some frictions relating to U.S. frustration over Seoul’s reluctance to ship arms and ammunition to Ukraine. South Korea for its part has been unhappy with provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act that disadvantage electric vehicles manufactured in South Korea and sold in the United States.
But all it took was President Yoon belting out a few bars of Don McLean’s American Pie at Wednesday night's State Dinner for any sign of tensions to melt away. The issue that dominated the visit was nuclear weapons--both North Korea’s and ours. It is apparent to anyone willing and able to see that North Korea is not about to de-nuclearize. To the contrary, it is building up its nuclear inventory and array of delivery vehicles as fast as it can. Diplomacy, sanctions, and love letters have all proved equally unsuccessful.
All this has sown doubts in South Korea (in ways reminiscent of the French in the 1960s) that the United States would stand up to nuclear blackmail given North Korea’s ability to target American cities. Doubts as to the reliability of extended deterrence are compounded by fears of a second Trump presidency, as last time around Trump threatened to pull all 28,500 American troops out of the country over a disagreement stemming from how much South Korea was offsetting defense costs.
With public polling showing that many Koreans wanted to develop an independent nuclear arsenal, the Biden administration chose to provide nuclear reassurance in the way of involving South Korea more in nuclear decisions relating to the peninsula and in promising more frequent visits to the area by nuclear-capable U.S. systems. There is no appetite in Seoul for stationing U.S. nuclear weapons on South Korean territory, and no appetite in Washington for an independent South Korean nuclear force. This will work for the foreseeable future, although I predict the question of developing an independent nuclear force will move to center stage in South Korea if Donald Trump should again occupy the Oval Office. That by the way is why we call this newsletter Home & Away, because the two are so intimately connected.
Otherwise, it seems that Xi Jinping was finally able to connect with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the phone. Just why the call came when it did remains something of a mystery, with some speculating it was an effort to repair China’s reputation in Europe following the controversial remarks of China’s ambassador to France questioning the sovereignty of several independent countries that were formerly part of the USSR.
The Chinese and Ukrainian readouts of the call that I saw gave no indication whether Xi was prepared to lean on Putin and, if he were, to what effect. Clearly, this is what Zelenskyy is hoping for. And speaking of Ukraine, here is a link to my most recent piece in Project Syndicate, one that highlights the lessons to be gleaned from the negotiation of the Good Friday Agreement to anyone seeking to introduce diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
In the news
Monday, April 24: “Think” on KERA FM on The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens
Wednesday, April 26: Bloomberg Balance of Power on President Biden meeting with President Yoon and U.S.-South Korea relations.
Articles:
In Project Syndicate on what lessons the Good Friday Agreement offers for trying to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.