Welcome to Home & Away. The good news is that the past week of physical (not to be confused with political) gridlock here in New York City will soon be history. The not-so-good news is that a return to what passes for normal in New York City (where the administration of its now indicted mayor is fast unraveling) is nothing to celebrate. The same holds for the United Nations.
Valedictory
Speaking of the United Nations, the week unfolded as expected in the sense that there were few—if any—expectations for what might be accomplished at the UN General Assembly. The week is like Davos in that the formal sessions matter little and what counts for more are all the side meetings.
I do want to comment on President Joe Biden’s address on Tuesday. As might be expected of his fourth and final speech at the UN General Assembly, there was a valedictory feel to it…not just the man, stepping down after a career that has spanned half a century, but for a generation. Biden will be the last U.S. president whose formative years coincided with the Cold War and unprecedented U.S. leadership in the world and for whom the notion of American leadership of what became known as the West came naturally.
The framing of the address was good—and reminiscent of the book that influenced me most on international relations, The Anarchical Society, by the Australian academic Hedley Bull. For Hedley, the state of the world reflects the relative balance between forces of order and disorder, or in his terminology, ‘society’ and ‘anarchy.’ Biden put it this way:
“There will always be forces that pull our countries apart and the world apart: aggression, extremism, chaos, and cynicism, a desire to retreat from the world and go it alone. Our task, our test is to make sure that the forces holding us together are stronger than those that are pulling us apart, that the principles of partnership that we came here each year to uphold can withstand the challenges, that the center holds once again.”
Just to be clear, order is not the natural way of the world. As is taught in science class, entropy, or disorder, is what can be expected of systems unless they are influenced by benign actors. What explains more than anything else the considerable degree of order in the world since World War II are the efforts of the United States, along with its partners in Europe and Asia, to deter conflict, maintain alliances, build institutions, and promote economic growth and freedom. I am well aware of the exceptions and failures, but the overall track record is impressive, so much so that I would bet future historians will come to see the last three-quarters of a century as something of a golden age.
Several trends have moved things towards disorder of late. There is the proliferation of power (above all military, but also economic) that ensures the United States and its partners will encounter increasingly strong opposition from China, Russia, and others when they seek to expand their influence and promote their interests. There is as well the emergence of global issues—above all climate change—for which it has become impossible to forge a common approach.
And there is another factor adding to disorder: the eroding commitment within the United States to play the sort of leading international role that has characterized our foreign policy approach for the past 75 years. The sort of role Joe Biden made the case for on Tuesday.
It is too soon to predict Biden’s place in history. He will deservedly get high marks for leading the way in providing vital military assistance to Ukraine. When Russia first invaded, few thought Kyiv could hold out against Moscow’s aggression. Yet for over two years it has done just that. The challenge now, though, will be to define victory and success in achievable terms, something the American and Ukrainian governments have thus far refused to articulate.
I imagine Biden will also get high marks for his policies in the Indo-Pacific, where the United States is in a stronger place than it was four years ago to deter Chinese adventurism and maintain peace in a critical region. He did this in a number of ways, by building a coalition with Australia and the United Kingdom (AUKUS) to produce submarines and collaborate on advanced technologies, modernizing the U.S.-Japan alliance and pushing through unprecedented U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation, expanding the U.S. military’s access to the Philippines, and sending strong signals to China that aggression of Taiwan would be met with a forceful U.S. response.
But Biden will also be judged by two failures and two unavoidable realities. As for the former, there was the 2021 decision to follow through on Trump’s commitment to withdraw from Afghanistan and how that withdrawal was carried out. It was an unforced error as the United States, working with its NATO allies, private contractors, and the Afghan government, had achieved a degree of stability in that country at an affordable price.
The other failure is nearby in the Middle East, where for close to a year now the Biden administration has sought to persuade Israel to do different things or do things differently, mostly in vain. Palestinians, Israelis, and America’s international reputation are worse for it.
The first of the two realities that diluted Biden’s impact Tuesday was his status as a lame duck. He is in the proverbial ninth inning of his presidency, and the world is overwhelmingly focused on what comes next. Which brings us to the second reality hovering over his remarks, the specter of Donald Trump. Although of Biden’s generation, Trump could not be more different as he embodies pre-World War II isolationism more than post-war internationalism. It is interesting that although Biden and Trump are of the same generation by age, Biden and Vice President Harris (some decades younger) are closer in how they approach the world.
One more Away item before I turn to Home. Just this morning I published a piece for Project Syndicate (“The New Gang of Four”) that looks at the increasingly close ties among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. More alignment than alliance, this problematic grouping is motivated by opposition to Western values and the U.S.-led international order. The four are providing one another with diplomatic, economic, and military support.
Unfortunately, there is no single or simple policy to counter this alignment, while attempts at regime change would prove futile or counter-productive. But there are approaches the United States ought to adopt for each of the four. In addition, this country needs to enhance its conventional and military capabilities, reduce its debt, restructure supply chains, address its internal political divisions, and tend to the other alignment that provides a natural counter to the Gang of Four, namely, the Western alliance system.
Courage
Here at Home polls continue to suggest a tight election when it comes to the Electoral College. This can be anticipated alongside the near certainty Kamala Harris will win the national popular vote by a substantial margin. That won’t affect the electoral count, but it might give Democrats a majority in the House at the same time Republicans are still on course to win back the Senate.
Speaking of the electoral count, there’s disquieting news from the swing state of Georgia, where the Republican-controlled state election board recently voted to require that counties hand count the ballots cast on Election Day. This may sound innocuous, but the practical effect will be to introduce delay and unlimited opportunities for mischief and outright fraud. (Think Florida 2000 on steroids.) The decision will be challenged in the courts, but it provides a stark reminder of just how fraught the 75 days between Election Day and Inauguration Day are likely to be.
The more reassuring news on this score comes from Nebraska, where an effort was launched (with Donald Trump’s full backing) to end the practice of awarding electoral votes by congressional district in favor of a winner-take-all approach that is the case in all states but Maine. In practice this would have likely meant all five of the state’s electoral votes would go to Trump rather than at least one going to Harris. In a close election such as this one, the difference could prove decisive.
It is telling that Trump embarked on this effort after Maine’s deadline to change its election rules expired. Had Maine also adopted the winner-take-all approach Trump advocated for in Nebraska, he likely would have lost the one electoral vote Republicans can usually count on from Maine’s second congressional district.
The last-minute attempt to revise long-standing practice in Nebraska was blocked by two Republicans: State Senator Mike McDonnell and Governor Jim Pillen. It offers a good example of the tenth obligation of good citizens: to put country before either party or person, just the sort of think John Kennedy (or some would say Ted Sorensen) wrote about in the book Profiles in Courage.
Finally, I want to highlight a sermon given a week ago by Elliot Cosgrove, the chief rabbi at Park Avenue Synagogue here in New York City, where I happen to be a member. Rabbi Cosgrove (also the author of a just-published book, For a Time Such as This: On Being Jewish Today) made the case that Donald Trump engaged in what can only be described as antisemitism when he stated that, “The Jewish people would have a lot to do with a [Trump] loss.”
The rabbi correctly and courageously called Trump out for this preemptive scapegoating as well as for suggesting American Jews should vote for him exclusively on the basis that he was good and Harris was bad for Israel, which raises issues of dual loyalty and insults Jewish voters who, like all citizens of this country, of course have other concerns. Rabbi Cosgrove was careful not to advise people how to vote, but he was explicit in calling on Trump to retract his remarks. I am not holding my breath.
Speaking of things semitic, as things now stand, there will be no Home & Away next Friday given that Rosh Hashanah falls on Thursday and Friday, although depending on events and schedules I may get something out Wednesday, October 2, before I head off to mark 5785. Calling for a peaceful new year seems a bit ambitious just now. Let me just express the hope that it is a good and healthy one for all.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Thursday, September 19: Museum of the American Revolution
Monday, September 23: Andrea Mitchell Reports
Tuesday, September 24: José Díaz-Balart Reports
Tuesday, September 24: Squawk Box
Tuesday, September 24: The World
Article
Friday, September 27: The New Gang of Four (Project Syndicate)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens