April 7, 2023
Welcome to Home & Away. The big story here at home was and is Donald Trump’s arraignment. I have already written questioning the political wisdom of pursuing this course and won’t repeat myself. Not to mention that what’s done is done and we are where we are.
I tend to think the legal action increases the odds Trump will be the Republican nominee for president as it makes him the center of attention (something the media is enabling with its near non-stop coverage, even including live coverage of his plane taking off from Florida) at the same time it makes it more difficult for others to get their share of the oxygen and to attack him lest they seem to be siding with Democrats. Others disagree, arguing that while this may be true of this initial charge, the reaction will be different if and when there are other indictments tied to election tampering or mishandling classified materials or encouraging the events of January 6. We’ll see.
The conventional wisdom is that even if Trump manages to get the nomination (something that is quite possible given the commitment of his base and the rules governing Republican primaries by which a candidate with a plurality can often walk away with most or even all of the delegates) he would face tougher sledding in the general election as independents would move against him. Maybe...but not certainly. The 2024 election will hinge on many things. If it is a referendum on Trump, then yes, he would likely lose. But if it becomes a referendum on Joe Biden, on his handling of the economy or concerns about his age or the border or crime or whatever, then Trump could still win.
All of which is to say that as of now Donald Trump is one of the two individuals most likely to be president come January 2025. A second Trump administration fills me with more than a little foreboding. This concern reflects not just matters of policy but more so Trump’s politics and disregard for American democracy. I have worked for four presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, and one thing they had in common was a respect for the position. They all knew they were custodians of the Oval Office and the presidency was bigger than they were.
Donald Trump seems incapable of such thoughts. He violates and openly flouts many of the obligations articulated in my book: he seems to revel in tossing aside norms, is often uncivil, promotes political violence, demonstrates little or no interest in the common good, vilifies government and those working for it, and puts himself before the country. I worry that a second term would bring all this out and more, with four years defined by retribution, the weaponization of the powers of government, and persistent efforts to promote private interests over the public. He could well be enabled by Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress and a right-leaning Supreme Court. The irony would be tragic: an increasingly illiberal United States marking in 2026 the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. Budapest on the Potomac.
For all this, Trump’s legal problems and their political ramifications are hardly the only events worth noting. They may not even have been the most significant. Pride of place might deserve to go to the election in Wisconsin, where the liberal (progressive) candidate won out over her 2020 election-denying opponent. The result will tilt the balance in the Wisconsin Supreme Court to the Democrats, which will matter not just on policy questions involving abortion (which continues to drive many people to vote for Democrats) but also on potential Electoral College challenges in a pivotal swing state. It makes it less likely we will have a political crisis in 2024.
I cannot leave the Home section of this week’s newsletter without mentioning what happened in Tennessee, namely, the expulsion of two Democratic lawmakers by the Republican-dominated state legislature. Yes, the protest carried out by the two representatives violated the rules of the House, but it is impossible to avoid the judgment that the over-the-top response was dictated by the fact that the two lawmakers in question were Black and protesting the availability of guns. I would associate myself with the words of former President Barack Obama here, that “What happened in Tennessee is the latest example of a broader erosion of civility and democratic norms.” It is that and more, providing further evidence as if we needed it that American democracy is in trouble.
As to the week Away, Mr. Trump again figures prominently. The foreign policy consequences of what is taking place here are mostly undesirable. The rest of the world has been reminded that both Trump the person and Trumpism the mindset are anything but relics of the past. Most of this country’s partners and allies (with the exception of Israel under its current leadership, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, and Turkey) are decidedly less than thrilled with the prospect of a Trumpian renewal, one that raises basic questions as to this country’s reliability.
What else? Finland became the 31st member of NATO. This development is one of the many unexpected consequences of Putin’s war of choice. It is too soon to assess the results of this war, but, to borrow from the historian Barbara Tuchman, I am confident that it will be judged as folly. Hopefully many in Russia will come to share this realization, which would increase the odds that a future Russian leader will choose to integrate with Europe rather than attack it.
Then there is the “transit” of Taiwan’s president to the United States before and after her visit to Central America. President Tsai held a few meetings in New York with members of Congress and then a higher profile meeting in California with the new Speaker of the House. Diplomacy seems to have prevailed, as Tsai and McCarthy both delivered restrained remarks. All parties got what they wanted: McCarthy became the highest-ranking U.S. official to meet with Taiwan’s president in the United States since 1979, Tsai was able to showcase her efforts to build U.S.-Taiwan relations, and Beijing can point to the fact that McCarthy did not visit Taipei.
As a result, Xi Jinping seems to have decided not to react (or, more accurately, over-react) as he did in the wake of the visit to Taiwan by the previous Speaker. Thus far, China has announced that its coast guard will inspect ships in the Taiwan Strait, which Taiwan has stated it will not abide by. My sense is that none of this will lead to a full-blown crisis, but it is also a reminder that China keeps trying to change the status quo in ways that increase its ability to shape Taiwan’s decision-making. It is also another demonstration of Beijing’s preference for “grey zone” measures that do not rise to the level of prompting a forceful U.S. response yet help China get closer to its objective.
While McCarthy was meeting with Tsai in California, Xi was hosting French President Emmanuel Macron in Beijing, where Ukraine was a major topic of their meeting. From the looks of it, Xi continues to have little interest or ability in persuading Putin to compromise in Ukraine.
Two final subjects. Thursday saw the beginning of the 87th Masters. Close to one hundred golfers teed off. The plot is always the golf and the course, but the subplot is the tension between the PGA Tour and the upstart LIV tour bankrolled by Saudi Arabia. It will get awkward in the extreme if a LIV golfer puts on the green jacket Sunday, but the odds are against it. I am pulling for Rory McIlroy, who has won the other three major tournaments over the course of his career and needs only this one to round things out and complete the career grand slam, and for Cameron Young, who learned the game playing at Sleepy Hollow, where I have been known to toil with far less success.
Wednesday night marked the start of the Jewish holiday of Passover. The celebration of liberation from bondage seemed more immediate than ever given events in Ukraine and in Israel. Another reason to write about it stems from what happens at the seder, the meal at which Passover is celebrated that centers around telling the story of the Jews. The obligation is for each generation to pass this narrative on to the next. Doing so has helped Jews maintain their identity even in the face of centuries of persecution. I point it out because it highlights the centrality of story-telling, of narratives, to identity. We Americans would do well to note this, as our failure to pass on the story of American democracy to younger generations is one reason we find ourselves in the fix we are in. Supporting the teaching of civics in our schools and colleges is one of the best things we can do if we want to see this wonderful political experiment of ours continue.
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In the news
Friday, March 31: Interviewed by Kevin Kajiwara, Teneo’s Co-President of Political Risk Advisory, as part of the Teneo Insights Series to discuss The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens, the war in Ukraine, and China.
Tuesday, April 4: Bloomberg Surveillance (18:25 – 26:40) on Finland joining NATO, the Trump indictment, and polarization in the U.S.
Wednesday, April 5: MSNBC Andrea Mitchell Reports on Israeli forces raiding the Al-Aqsa Mosque and President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the U.S.