Bulls in the China Shop (June 23, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. Here at Home it has been a packed week: Father’s Day, the U.S. Open, a confrontational interview of Donald Trump on Fox News in which the former president again made it easier for the Justice Department and tougher on himself, a new entrant into the Republican presidential field, fresh questions about the ethics of yet another associate justice of the Supreme Court, and the latest chapter in the all too often sad saga of Hunter Biden.
So I’ve decided to counter-program and instead focus this week’s newsletter on Away.
Blinken to Beijing
I will start with China. Tony Blinken finally made it to Beijing, where he had serious sessions with the state councilor and foreign minister, as well as with China’s lead foreign policy official, but what might be described as a pro forma meeting with President Xi Jinping (reported to be only 35 minutes long), who showed more hospitality to Bill Gates than to the U.S. secretary of state.
The principal aim of the visit was to impart some momentum to the halting diplomatic relationship between the two countries, or at the very least prevent the further deterioration of U.S.-China relations. This may have been achieved, but attempts to create anything more specific or ambitious were rebuffed. China is still refusing to participate in military-to-military talks, either because Xi prefers to keep tensions high or fears giving his military too much of an independent role. The American effort to establish a channel to do something about China’s export of fentanyl precursors got no further than agreement to explore the creation of a working group, which is diplomatese for saying it is not going anywhere anytime soon.
The U.S. side clearly wants to re-establish the diplomatic momentum begun at Bali late last year and lost amidst the balloon imbroglio. At a fundraiser in California Tuesday night, President Biden said he believed that Xi had no idea of the balloon flight. I assume Biden said this to take Xi off the hook and make it easier for the two to meet, but I expect it was not well-received by someone who wants to be seen as controlling pretty much everything that goes on in his country. Biden then made a bad situation worse by referring to Xi as a dictator, not the sort of language one would normally use to bolster diplomatic prospects. But diplomacy may get off the ground regardless: the Chinese are keen to preserve economic ties and prevent further U.S. export controls and limits on investment as it deals with a slowing economy. It also seems Xi would like to see a meeting between himself and the U.S. president before the year is out.
U.S.-Taiwan Relations
During Blinken’s trip to Beijing, Taiwan was at the top of the agenda, and it remains the issue most likely to bring the world’s two largest economies into direct confrontation. As tensions continue to rise, I want to steer readers to the report just issued by a CFR-sponsored independent Task Force co-chaired by Mike Mullen, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Sue Gordon, the former Deputy Director of National Intelligence. We chose to focus on Taiwan because of the stakes and the urgency. As I wrote in a foreword to the report, “For decades, the United States, China, and Taiwan have successfully finessed the questions of Taiwan’s status…It is unclear, however, whether what has worked for five decades will work for another five years, much less another five decades.”
Authored by CFR Fellow David Sacks, U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China argues that the threat posed by China to Taiwan is growing, that the United States has a vital national interest in seeing that China does not move against Taiwan or that it fails if it does, and that there is much more the United States, Japan, Taiwan, and other allies and partners need to do to bolster deterrence. The report also issues some cautions as to what the United States and Taiwan ought not to do lest it trigger a crisis that would be disastrous for one and all. This brief summary does not begin to do justice to this thoughtful study, which I strongly recommend.
Mr. Modi Comes to Washington
The other big diplomatic story of the week involved India, namely, the arrival of Prime Minister Modi in the United States, culminating in a State visit and White House dinner on Thursday. The Biden administration set aside its concerns with India’s growing illiberalism at home and New Delhi’s refusal to cut economic and military links with Russia, instead dedicating itself to celebrating U.S.-Indian ties, ties justified by a large and potentially much larger economic relationship, strategic cooperation against China, and an increasingly powerful Indian-American community. My guess is that neither the economic nor the strategic relationship will pan out to the extent hoped for or predicted, but that won’t keep the administration from declaring victory.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Starts Slowly
This past week also saw a growing realism about Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive. As many predicted, success is unlikely if it is defined as Ukraine’s regaining control of significant amounts of territory now controlled by Russia. This assessment reflects Russia’s numerical advantages, its defensive positioning, and some signs of improved performance. I continue to think that come fall or winter there will be a difficult but necessary debate that will emerge in this country, Europe, and Ukraine itself about whether the time has come to push for a cease-fire, provide Ukraine with security assurances and long-term economic and military help, but to pursue Ukraine’s political and territorial goals through other means.
History Not Repeating Itself
I also want to highlight my latest piece for Project Syndicate, “A Tale of Two Invasions.” I am struck by the similarities between two invasions three decades apart: Saddam Hussein’s of Kuwait in 1990 and Vladimir Putin’s of Ukraine last year. I am struck even more by the differences in the U.S. and international responses and what that tells us about how the world has changed.
Somewhat more specifically, geopolitics and great-power rivalry are back, as is armed conflict between countries. The post-Cold War respite, the holiday from history, is over. As for the United States, it remains first among equals but that is not to be confused with hegemony. Finally, the gap between the world’s response to aggression then and now is a sobering warning that the international system has deteriorated. The post-Cold War era has given way to a new era defined more by turbulence and fragmentation than order. This new era may not yet have a name, but the reality is there for all to see.
Sorry to end on a down note, but then it is raining as I write this. Wishing you all a good weekend.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Tuesday, June 20: MSNBC Morning Joe on Trump's foreign policy (begins at 34:35). NHK World Japan Deeper Look on U.S. & Indo-Pacific relations.
Articles:
Project Syndicate column on Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.