But (June 14, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. We’ll begin this week with the Middle East, turn to Europe (where I am heading next week) and end back here in the United States. Think of it as Away & Home.
Free at Last
Like the previous week and the weeks before that, it was an eventful seven days in the Middle East. The big news (that arrived a day after last week’s newsletter should have reached your inbox) was the Israeli rescue of four hostages held in the Gaza Strip. What Israel’s military accomplished was impressive. And it was a demonstration of a government meeting its core obligation to protect its citizens.
But (as is often the case in this part of the world) there is a but. Actually, several of them. First, what happened is not easily replicable or scalable and thus cannot serve as a model for freeing the remaining 120 hostages. This was a highly complex military operation that required exquisite intelligence and days of rehearsals in buildings deliberately constructed to resemble where the hostages were being held, and even then, it nearly failed. Diplomacy remains the best way for Israel to secure the release of its citizens still being held hostage in the Gaza Strip. November’s temporary ceasefire freed over ten times as many hostages as Israel has been able to rescue since.
Second, the military undertaking, while successful, was costly. It is claimed that close to three hundred Palestinians lost their lives in the fire fight and aerial assault that ensued after Israeli commandos came under attack during the rescue mission. Whatever the precise number of deaths, the principal responsibility for this lies with Hamas, both for taking hostages on October 7 and then for co-locating them amidst a dense civilian population, a decision meant to deter Israeli military action, cause international criticism of Israel for casualties resulting from any rescue operation, or both.
There were two additional costs to Israel. First, the raid itself resulted in the death of an Israeli soldier helping to lead it. It was eerily reminiscent of the Entebbe operation close to fifty years ago that resulted in the death of Yonatan Netanyahu, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s older brother, who led the daring operation that freed close to one hundred Israelis being held hostage in Uganda by a radical Palestinian group that carried out the hijacking of an Air France plane during a stopover in Athens and diverted it to Uganda.
The second cost to Israel was reputational. The operation and large number of associated casualties have reinforced the perception held by many that Israel is not doing enough to protect innocent Palestinians. In this case the toll also led to renewed calls for the Israeli government to accept an immediate and permanent cease-fire agreement that would allow for the return of the remaining hostages, who are likely now being guarded even more closely by their Hamas handlers to avoid a repeat of last week’s rescue mission.
The third “but” is arguably the most basic. As welcome as the hostage rescue was and is, it did not change any of the fundamentals of the situation. There is no Israeli plan other than doing more to degrade Hamas militarily; a viable strategy for what is to come after in the way of governance in Gaza remains nowhere to be found. This reality was brought home by the resignations of Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot from the so-called war cabinet, with both pointing to Netanyahu’s failure to lay out a vision for postwar Gaza.
I appeared on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN show this past Sunday (link below), and he along with several friends found me to be even more sober than usual. I will confess that I find it hard to be optimistic about prospects for a lasting ceasefire, much less peace. This Israeli government continues to prioritize attacking Hamas over bringing the hostages home and continues to avoid difficult political choices about what should come next in Gaza or the West Bank as confronting them could bring down the government. That centrists such as Gantz and Eisenkot are abandoning ship only increases the relative influence of the extremists who remain, some of whom have declared an interest in Israelis resettling Gaza. I am also worried about a sharp increase in hostilities on Israel’s northern border between Israel and Hezbollah as the intensity of the war in Gaza fades.
Hamas, for its part, is reluctant to give up the hostages that give it leverage and even more reluctant to add momentum to a political process in which it would have no role. What it wants is a permanent ceasefire that requires Israeli military withdrawal from all of Gaza, a scenario that would allow it to remain active and potentially dominant there. This is obviously unacceptable to Israel.
Secretary of State James Baker used to say that the United States cannot want peace more than the Israelis and the Arabs. This truism can be applied to any mediator and any set of protagonists. But this is exactly the position in which the United States finds itself today. The situation in the region is decidedly unripe for diplomacy, not because Israelis and Palestinians lack the ability to make peace, but because they are unwilling to compromise other goals in order to do so. Hence my skepticism.
Continental Drift
The 80th anniversary of D-Day has come and gone. President Biden gave a good speech, but it did not gain much traction either at home or away. Most Americans are not focused on this part of the world, much less on events there more than three quarters of a century ago. The greatest generation that fought the war is passing from the scene, and younger generations for the most part don’t study this history, or much of any history for that matter.
Europeans aren’t sure what to make of Biden’s speech in the sense that, despite his efforts to highlight the importance of helping Ukraine defeat Russian aggression and link this war to the defeat of fascism in World War II, he was unable earlier this year to prevent the months-long impasse in Congress over aid to Ukraine. Similarly, Biden cannot assure America’s European allies that such aid will continue to flow after November.
But European worries go beyond aid for Ukraine. They are uneasy with the Biden administration’s approach to industrial policy, Gaza, Israel, and China. They are even more concerned about the implications of Trump 2.0, principally that it would bring with it the weakening of the American security guarantee, a unilateral or isolationist approach to the world, additional tariffs, and opposition to global efforts to combat climate change.
What is more, Europeans have their own problems at home. The European Parliament election results constituted a major protest vote against centrist parties in both France and Germany…and reinforced the strength of the governing rightist party in Italy. The results reflected unhappiness with years of low economic growth, perceived over-regulation, and high levels of immigration.
The anti-incumbent mood does not bode well for the president of France, who called for snap elections that begin later this month and conclude in early July. He and France could well be entering three years of “cohabitacion” until the next presidential election, one in which Macron cannot be a candidate given term limits. The same mood favoring change will likely result in a landslide in the UK, where the deservedly discredited Tories are about to be given the order of the boot on July 4 of all days.
All of this should increase the anxiety level in the White House. Trump, despite four years as president, is widely perceived (for good reason) as the outsider compared to Biden, who has spent his entire adult life in politics. Fair or not, Biden bears the burdens of popular frustrations associated with the economy and the border along with widespread doubts stemming from his age.
Indigestion with Congestion
Here in New York City the big news now that Trump’s hush-money trial is over is Governor Kathy Hochul’s decision at the proverbial eleventh hour to pause the implementation of an initiative that would have imposed a fee on cars entering Manhattan below 60th Street. The idea was to discourage people from driving their cars and raise funds to pay for much-needed improvements to mass transit. Less driving would have also reduced emissions and translated into less time and productivity lost to traffic.
Hochul clearly gave in to voices across the political spectrum who opposed such a fee, for instance commuters from other parts of the state who drive in to work each day. It is a textbook example of how in a democracy, strident minorities (special interests) can overwhelm less vocal majorities representing the larger, collective interest. I expect the fact that the fee was due to go into effect just four months before the November elections had something to do with it. But this is short-termism at its worst, as the new policy would have over time improved the quality of life here for the far greater number of New Yorkers who use mass transit and provided an alternative to yet another increase in taxes. Hopefully the pause in introducing congestion pricing will prove temporary.
In the Swing
I want to end this week’s missive by returning to a subject close to the heart of several readers and this author, namely golf. We are seeing a rare demonstration of excellence in the play of Scottie Scheffler. He has now won five of his eight starts this year, including one of the majors (the Masters). It is also possible that had he not been arrested just hours before his second round at the PGA Championship he might well have also won that major. He did manage to win this past week (the Memorial) even though he was not playing his best golf; sometimes, good enough is good enough. He is the first golfer to head into the U.S. Open (which began yesterday at Pinehurst and ends Sunday) with five wins (including one major) since Arnold Palmer in 1962, otherwise known to historians as the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis. And while Scheffler struggled in his opening round, finishing at one over par, there is plenty of golf to be played and I for one would not count him out.
I wish I could report similar excellence in my own golf game, but honesty precludes my doing so. But I am doing something I should have done years ago, namely, retooling my swing. I was given the choice by a local pro between tinkering with my flawed swing or taking it apart and putting something very different in its place. This is the golf equivalent of choosing between physical therapy or hip replacement. In any event, I chose the latter, more radical path of deconstruction to be followed by reconstruction. So far, it is all too similar to the Middle East, in that things have gotten worse before getting even worse. But the season is young, and we are very much hoping that results will get measurably better soon. In the meantime, a happy golf, and barbecue, and family-filled Father’s Day to all the dads out there.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Sunday, June 9: CNN: Fareed Zakaria GPS
Tuesday, June 11: CNBC Squawk Box
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens