Welcome to Home & Away. This week’s edition comes a day early to accommodate some travel and in three parts: an assessment of the costs and benefits of Operation Epic Fury, thoughts as to how the United States should approach the challenge of ending the conflict, and suggestions for where to go for smart analysis about the war.
You consistently provide the best, most even-handed coverage of the current Iran situation. Thank you also for your excellent referrals to other, savvy Iranian experts.
In broad daylight, the US and Israel blinded the top shelf Russian, Chinese, and Iranian anti-aircraft gear using the most advanced EW -- the most underappreciated aspect of the American arsenal -- on the planet leaving Iran with frozen screens, screens filled with snow, screens filled with massive numbers of faux targets, dead communications between radars and target acquisition computers and firing solutions and launching computers and whilst blinded, the US flew 400 Tomahawks at 30' elevation at 800 km/hr giving the Iranians about 3 minutes to find and acquire those cruise missiles.
Not one Tomahawk lost to Russian, Chinese, or Iranian anti-air response.
This was the most successful attack in the history of cruise missile warfare and an obvious triumph of American technology. That's wha the Russians and Chinese are thinking about right now.
The US/Israel decapitated the Iranian government and the IRGC, sank the Iranian Navy, grounded the Iranian air force, and achieved immediate air superiority followed immediately by air supremacy.
Today, the Iranians have fewer than 20% of the missile launchers they had at D minus one second and the launchers, missile stockpiles, drone stockpiles, missile manufacturing plants, drone manufacturing plants, and the entire country's command and control network are disappearing at warp speed.
Iran has already ceased to be a viable economic system and it will only get worse as Iran's exports will also not be able to leave Iranian ports. It is unlikely that one barrel of Iranian oil will be delivered to China for some considerable time.
This was as complete an ass whipping as ever fashioned in the history of warfare.
You're making the same mistake every American administration since Vietnam has made...thinking he who wins the body count wins the peace...and it is winning the peace that ultimately matters
My point actually had nothing to do with how data is, isn't or was collected. It's about understanding what you're really trying to accomplish and keeping your eye on the ball.
I believe it was Clauswitz who said "war is a continuation of politics by other means". If your objective is to simply blow stuff up, you have succeeded. Although I don't know what you've accomplished other than simply "mowing the lawn" as the Israelis call it.
The regime is still in place and by most accounts it's more hardline. You've done to advance the prospects for internal regime change. You haven't prevented Iran's ability to threaten shipping because you haven't dented drone production which by nature it low-tech and dispersed.
You haven't really changed the regime's willingness to support proxies. Sure, maybe you've dented their short-term capacity to supply, rebuild and coordinate with those, but you certainly haven't done anything that moves the needle long term
I think you're looking at the first quarter score.
Given where we are, I'd say we are on schedule to deliver regime change, defang the Quds/IRGC, and to starve the terrorists of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
I expect the US/Israelis will flatten all the missile/drone manufacturing, storage, and launch capabilities. These are simple unopposed bombing runs.
In the end, we can hope for the kind of long term reversal of fortune and governance as we created in Germany and Japan after WWII.
In complex situations, it is always useful to reason from the end game to inform the beginning and the middle of the undertaking. Knowing the destination, it is far easier to plan the journey.
Can the world, the Middle East, Israel, and the US live with a nuclear armed, missile-delivery-capable Iran led by a bunch of vicious, medieval, religious lunatics such as the Iranian Ayatollahs?
Can the same bunch live with a temporarily defanged and neutered Iran led by the same religious lunatics?
Can the same bunch expect to be able to negotiate in good faith and effectively with the same religious lunatics and reasonably expect to craft an enforceable and effective peace? Tobe clear for 47 years this has eluded any real progress.
Is there any long term role in a future Iran for Ayatollahs, the IRGC, the Basij, the Quds, and any other number of extremists?
Should the Iranian people surrender control of their 93MM strong population to the same religious lunatic minority -- maybe 7% of the entire population?
Should the Iranians be ruled by leaders who hang, mutilate, rape, torture, and kill their people for offenses that would not even be notable in a civilized society?
The answer to all those questions -- simple questions -- is NO.
Informed thusly, the action plan is infinitely easier to divine and create.
The Allies in WWII did not envision a long term role in a future Germany for the Nazis -- they were a political party before they seized power -- and the world should take the same view for the Ayatollah-led Iranian extremists.
Our objectives should be unconditional surrender and regime change to a new regime that is created by the Iranian people themselves.
If you start to feel wobbly or that logic is too elementary, give me 300 words on how the world exists with a nuclear armed, missile capable, Ayatollah-led Iran.
With this clarity, the vast majority of what you wrote is dross.
As I have previously stated on many occasions, there has got t9 be clear criteria of accomplishment in any Conflict -armed or not. My best way to make an argument for or against any war starts with analysing structural and non-structural variables. Structural are those who change the Socio-economic path and opens certain economic benefits & non-structural are all replenishable costs in any Conflict.
Obviously, non-structural are ballistic missiles as these depots can be easily destroyed during war and replenished during Peace time. Military equipment is also non-structural assets as these can be bought and delivered overnight (from Russia and China in this war case). Structural accomplishments is a nuclear weapons ban in Iran as this will allow for more trade & oil exports (economic benefits) and healthier regional trade Iran relationships with all neighbouring Muslim-Arab states.
The most important structural variable is a regime change! This changes the whole pattern of Socio-economic Functioning & rebuilds the system from inside out. Obviously a regime change is not going to be considered unless occupied or unless string opposition springs a desire for such change in Governance in Iran. For this to happen internally, it requires ethnic consolidation as ethnic groups are most expoited by Dictatorships. Ethnicity requires organised forms of cooperation known as Political Unions or parties that can slowly but gradually build a momentum.
The only Poliyical minority that can accomplish a eegime change is the Azeri minority along with Balocji and Afghani groups. Needless to say Iran is often called the bigger Azerbijan as more ethnic Azeri live in Iran than in Azerbijan; thus, the best way to promote a regime change is to foster Political representation of ethnic groups in direct comepetition with the established status quo or what people love to call Political ALTERNATIVE.
In conclusion, war tends to consolodate support for a regime rather than changing a regime as people often stand together against foreign aggressors especially US-Israel partnership; this, the war has a negative overall Structural IMPACT & appears as the wrong path to Socio-economic changes in Iran. - Viktor, title: Magnus NUCLEUS for Puritybof Thought
Saw you on MS NOW. Have you even met Donald Trump? You trust that pig? Could not believe your remarks about Cuba! We are being led into a holocaust by a madman and you are nonchalant about Cuba. I could not believe you. Shame on you. You trust Trump to not sent in the military?What is wrong with you.
Thanks for your clear and convincing analysis and recommendations. Please reconsider the persuasive value of less economic sanctions, more US-Iran trade agreements, and financial assistance to rebuild non-military infrastructure destroyed by bombs and to compensate other affected countries for their war damages. Those incentives are necessary to ensure that ceasefire and peace treaties lead to post-war prosperity for all affected countries, regardless of who started the wars.
Thank you for the resources you find helpful, but I will continue to use only the free ones. With the vast expanse of the media these days I just can't justify any subscriptions that charge for personal opinions and readily available information. While it's true there are a lot of contradictory sources that are free so are there a lot of paid subscriptions faking it. I am still capable of critical thinking and parse out the chaff from the wheat.
As you point out, with amazing consistency in everything Trump does, Putin is the big winner. Trump will continue to suck up to him even as Putin helps Iran target Americans. That is treason but not surprising. Meanwhile Putin claims he is still supporting Iran in its defense against us infidels. How does any American tolerate that? Besides that Trump, who says high oil prices are a short term cost for his great winn, hands Putin a huge windfall in sanctions relief supposedly to help with the price of oil., helping Putin fund the continued attacks on the civilians of Ukraine, our supposed ally. So Trump supports the man targeting our own troops and our supposed ally and we seem not to care. Support the war or not, but it can't get more wrong than this. Trump choses Putin over us.
You consistently provide the best, most even-handed coverage of the current Iran situation. Thank you also for your excellent referrals to other, savvy Iranian experts.
Thank you for sharing recommended resources, Richard!
Wow. Thank you for your guidance on how to think through this mess. And with such diplomacy! 😏
We do not need to defer debate…
This war is a disaster…
We have no plan…
We can’t define success…
The premise that Iran was about to attack was a lie…
We had a deal on the table we should have considered…
But we sent unqualified people to negotiate…
We seem to be doing the bidding of Netanyahu…
And not asking Congress for their input…
We indiscriminately bombed with no objective…
And hit a girl’s school…
Killing more than a hundred children…
We bombed a non combatant vessel…
Nowhere near the war…
And left any survivors to die…
We are allowing Russia to report our positions…
And that seems OK to those in charge…
We unnecessarily drove oil prices higher…
Which ultimately will drive other prices higher…
And made the world a more dangerous place…
We don’t need to defer debate…
This is another Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan…
And the American People have been lied to again…
"This war is a disaster…"
Hardly, amigo.
In broad daylight, the US and Israel blinded the top shelf Russian, Chinese, and Iranian anti-aircraft gear using the most advanced EW -- the most underappreciated aspect of the American arsenal -- on the planet leaving Iran with frozen screens, screens filled with snow, screens filled with massive numbers of faux targets, dead communications between radars and target acquisition computers and firing solutions and launching computers and whilst blinded, the US flew 400 Tomahawks at 30' elevation at 800 km/hr giving the Iranians about 3 minutes to find and acquire those cruise missiles.
Not one Tomahawk lost to Russian, Chinese, or Iranian anti-air response.
This was the most successful attack in the history of cruise missile warfare and an obvious triumph of American technology. That's wha the Russians and Chinese are thinking about right now.
The US/Israel decapitated the Iranian government and the IRGC, sank the Iranian Navy, grounded the Iranian air force, and achieved immediate air superiority followed immediately by air supremacy.
Today, the Iranians have fewer than 20% of the missile launchers they had at D minus one second and the launchers, missile stockpiles, drone stockpiles, missile manufacturing plants, drone manufacturing plants, and the entire country's command and control network are disappearing at warp speed.
Iran has already ceased to be a viable economic system and it will only get worse as Iran's exports will also not be able to leave Iranian ports. It is unlikely that one barrel of Iranian oil will be delivered to China for some considerable time.
This was as complete an ass whipping as ever fashioned in the history of warfare.
So, disaster? Not even close.
Cheers.
So it's all over. The US has won.
Hold on a minute why can't shipping safely navigate Hormuz? Why are the same people in charge in Iran? How come they're still exporting oil? …
I didn't say the US has won the war. I said your characterization as being a disaster is wrong and unsupported by the actual evidence.
Cheers.
You're making the same mistake every American administration since Vietnam has made...thinking he who wins the body count wins the peace...and it is winning the peace that ultimately matters
Your criticism of the Vietnam War US Army's fixation on body count is a fair criticism. I served in that army.
Your analogy comparing the Iran war results to Vietnam War Era how the data is being collected, what the data is, and its significance is not fair.
If you achieve air supremacy after using state of the art EW and Tomahawks, that is irrefutable.
If you decapitate the enemy's government and military that is different than falsifying the body count of NVA/VC snuffies.
I could go on.
Be fair. Cheers.
My point actually had nothing to do with how data is, isn't or was collected. It's about understanding what you're really trying to accomplish and keeping your eye on the ball.
I believe it was Clauswitz who said "war is a continuation of politics by other means". If your objective is to simply blow stuff up, you have succeeded. Although I don't know what you've accomplished other than simply "mowing the lawn" as the Israelis call it.
The regime is still in place and by most accounts it's more hardline. You've done to advance the prospects for internal regime change. You haven't prevented Iran's ability to threaten shipping because you haven't dented drone production which by nature it low-tech and dispersed.
You haven't really changed the regime's willingness to support proxies. Sure, maybe you've dented their short-term capacity to supply, rebuild and coordinate with those, but you certainly haven't done anything that moves the needle long term
I think you're looking at the first quarter score.
Given where we are, I'd say we are on schedule to deliver regime change, defang the Quds/IRGC, and to starve the terrorists of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
I expect the US/Israelis will flatten all the missile/drone manufacturing, storage, and launch capabilities. These are simple unopposed bombing runs.
In the end, we can hope for the kind of long term reversal of fortune and governance as we created in Germany and Japan after WWII.
Persia could return to its former cultural glory.
Cheers.
One thing that has become crystal clear, if it wasn’t clear already, is that the Trump regime cannot be trusted as a reliable ally.
In complex situations, it is always useful to reason from the end game to inform the beginning and the middle of the undertaking. Knowing the destination, it is far easier to plan the journey.
Can the world, the Middle East, Israel, and the US live with a nuclear armed, missile-delivery-capable Iran led by a bunch of vicious, medieval, religious lunatics such as the Iranian Ayatollahs?
Can the same bunch live with a temporarily defanged and neutered Iran led by the same religious lunatics?
Can the same bunch expect to be able to negotiate in good faith and effectively with the same religious lunatics and reasonably expect to craft an enforceable and effective peace? Tobe clear for 47 years this has eluded any real progress.
Is there any long term role in a future Iran for Ayatollahs, the IRGC, the Basij, the Quds, and any other number of extremists?
Should the Iranian people surrender control of their 93MM strong population to the same religious lunatic minority -- maybe 7% of the entire population?
Should the Iranians be ruled by leaders who hang, mutilate, rape, torture, and kill their people for offenses that would not even be notable in a civilized society?
The answer to all those questions -- simple questions -- is NO.
Informed thusly, the action plan is infinitely easier to divine and create.
The Allies in WWII did not envision a long term role in a future Germany for the Nazis -- they were a political party before they seized power -- and the world should take the same view for the Ayatollah-led Iranian extremists.
Our objectives should be unconditional surrender and regime change to a new regime that is created by the Iranian people themselves.
If you start to feel wobbly or that logic is too elementary, give me 300 words on how the world exists with a nuclear armed, missile capable, Ayatollah-led Iran.
With this clarity, the vast majority of what you wrote is dross.
I corrected one of your questions:
Can the world live with a nuclear armed, missile-delivery-capable [Israel] led by a bunch of vicious, medieval, religious lunatics such as [ben Gvir]
The answer is no, of course.
Can the world live with a nuclear armed missile delivery capable US led by a mentally deranged pedophile and rapist?
As I have previously stated on many occasions, there has got t9 be clear criteria of accomplishment in any Conflict -armed or not. My best way to make an argument for or against any war starts with analysing structural and non-structural variables. Structural are those who change the Socio-economic path and opens certain economic benefits & non-structural are all replenishable costs in any Conflict.
Obviously, non-structural are ballistic missiles as these depots can be easily destroyed during war and replenished during Peace time. Military equipment is also non-structural assets as these can be bought and delivered overnight (from Russia and China in this war case). Structural accomplishments is a nuclear weapons ban in Iran as this will allow for more trade & oil exports (economic benefits) and healthier regional trade Iran relationships with all neighbouring Muslim-Arab states.
The most important structural variable is a regime change! This changes the whole pattern of Socio-economic Functioning & rebuilds the system from inside out. Obviously a regime change is not going to be considered unless occupied or unless string opposition springs a desire for such change in Governance in Iran. For this to happen internally, it requires ethnic consolidation as ethnic groups are most expoited by Dictatorships. Ethnicity requires organised forms of cooperation known as Political Unions or parties that can slowly but gradually build a momentum.
The only Poliyical minority that can accomplish a eegime change is the Azeri minority along with Balocji and Afghani groups. Needless to say Iran is often called the bigger Azerbijan as more ethnic Azeri live in Iran than in Azerbijan; thus, the best way to promote a regime change is to foster Political representation of ethnic groups in direct comepetition with the established status quo or what people love to call Political ALTERNATIVE.
In conclusion, war tends to consolodate support for a regime rather than changing a regime as people often stand together against foreign aggressors especially US-Israel partnership; this, the war has a negative overall Structural IMPACT & appears as the wrong path to Socio-economic changes in Iran. - Viktor, title: Magnus NUCLEUS for Puritybof Thought
Saw you on MS NOW. Have you even met Donald Trump? You trust that pig? Could not believe your remarks about Cuba! We are being led into a holocaust by a madman and you are nonchalant about Cuba. I could not believe you. Shame on you. You trust Trump to not sent in the military?What is wrong with you.
Amb. Haass, what is the best email address for you, please?
Thanks for your clear and convincing analysis and recommendations. Please reconsider the persuasive value of less economic sanctions, more US-Iran trade agreements, and financial assistance to rebuild non-military infrastructure destroyed by bombs and to compensate other affected countries for their war damages. Those incentives are necessary to ensure that ceasefire and peace treaties lead to post-war prosperity for all affected countries, regardless of who started the wars.
Thank you for the resources you find helpful, but I will continue to use only the free ones. With the vast expanse of the media these days I just can't justify any subscriptions that charge for personal opinions and readily available information. While it's true there are a lot of contradictory sources that are free so are there a lot of paid subscriptions faking it. I am still capable of critical thinking and parse out the chaff from the wheat.
https://avddemocracy.substack.com/p/there-was-no-plan-for-trumps-war
"It is thus time to revive diplomacy". And who would do that exactly? You all are gone, there isn;t anyone capable is there?.
As you point out, with amazing consistency in everything Trump does, Putin is the big winner. Trump will continue to suck up to him even as Putin helps Iran target Americans. That is treason but not surprising. Meanwhile Putin claims he is still supporting Iran in its defense against us infidels. How does any American tolerate that? Besides that Trump, who says high oil prices are a short term cost for his great winn, hands Putin a huge windfall in sanctions relief supposedly to help with the price of oil., helping Putin fund the continued attacks on the civilians of Ukraine, our supposed ally. So Trump supports the man targeting our own troops and our supposed ally and we seem not to care. Support the war or not, but it can't get more wrong than this. Trump choses Putin over us.
How do we respond to an Iranian nuclear test?
We need readers and thinkers but got ass lickers.