Welcome to Home & Away. I will pick up where I left off several days ago when I published a special edition with ten takeaways from the extraordinary events in Russia. We have learned some but not a great deal since then as to what transpired…and we are still left speculating what to make of it all and the likely consequences for the war in Ukraine and for Russia itself.

More from Moscow

What seems to be going on is the expected purge of those thought to be involved. It presents Putin with what I would describe as the dictator’s dilemma: how to remove individuals implicated in the mutiny but whom Putin depends on for ruling the country. What makes it doubly complicated is that Putin must take steps to sustain his rule at home while he is fighting a war in Ukraine.

We will see if he can manage the tensions. Many Russia experts are writing his political obituary, which I believe is premature. The failed putsch may prove to be the beginning of the end, but for all we know the end is still years off. It is also too soon to know what if any impact all this will have on Russia’s will and ability to fight the war in Ukraine.

Also coming to the fore is the possibility that if Putin loses control the result is more likely to be disorder than liberalism. Russian society and indeed the country have many fault lines. Russia also has thousands of nuclear devices in its possession. The only thing more worrisome than a strong Russia could well be a weak, fragmenting Russia. Think Pakistan times 100.

My Conversation with Secretary of State Antony Blinken

I also had the opportunity this week to host Secretary of State Antony Blinken here at the Council on Foreign Relations. A few things worth reporting on from our conversation: There is no obvious Biden doctrine. I’d argue that at its core this president’s foreign policy is about alliances and partnerships, but this only tells you about means, not ends.

Trying to signal Putin that time is not on his side in Ukraine is another goal. I expect the NATO summit in early July will signal new commitments of various sorts to Ukraine.

As for China, where he recently visited, Blinken used language—that the two countries need to find a way to coexist peacefully—that was surprisingly reminiscent of the Cold War. When I asked what the goal of U.S. policy should be vis-à-vis China, he candidly assessed there isn’t a “clear finish line.” His immediate goal in going to China was to establish regular diplomacy so as to build something of a floor under this troubled but critical relationship. My guess is that this year will see more frequent high-level contacts, culminating in a meeting this November between Presidents Biden and Xi. As for Taiwan, I tried but failed to get more clarity (strategic or otherwise) about U.S. policy.

The Biden administration has moved a long way from treating the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a pariah. It is trying to figure out the contours of a closer security relationship that the administration could live with and Congress would approve. Blinken made clear as well that Israeli-Saudi normalization would also depend on what happens between Israelis and Palestinians, warning the Netanyahu government that “if there is a fire burning in their backyard” it could make it difficult or impossible for normalization with Saudi Arabia to move forward. Last, and contrary to news reports, the secretary stated that no nuclear arrangement with Iran is in the offing.

SCOTUS Opines

Here at home the big news (in addition to CNN obtaining recordings that showed Donald Trump effectively admitting he was aware he was in the wrong to possess and share classified material) were two Supreme Court decisions. The first rejected the so-called independent state legislature theory. The case at hand (Moore v. Harper) concerned gerrymandering, but the ruling constituted something of a broader argument bolstering the role of state supreme courts and the principle of checks and balances.

The second major decision, issued Thursday, involved a case brought by Students for Fair Admissions against Harvard and the University of North Carolina (UNC). The ruling stated that the affirmative action policies of the universities violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, thereby making it much more difficult (but not impossible) for colleges to consider race as a factor in admissions.

As I understand it, a majority of the Court argued that current race-conscious admissions policies discriminated against Asian-Americans. Individual applicants can cite race (in an essay, for example) as a factor in explaining who they are, but the college admissions office cannot view candidates through the prism of race.

Two additional thoughts. I predict that schools will have little difficulty figuring out how to take this decision into account while still managing to maintain a diverse student body. And second, I hope schools use this as an opportunity to get rid of legacy admissions, which are a form of discrimination in favor of some that have not earned it. Indeed, legacy admissions are an example of legal corruption motivated by a desire to increase alumni financial contributions that have the unfortunate effect of perpetuating inequality of opportunity in this society.

Some Personal News

Last but for me at least not least, today marks my final day here as president of the Council on Foreign Relations after a run of twenty years. As my friend Dan Schulman of PayPal pointed out to me, you can leave a job three ways: you can be fired. You can die. Or you can leave. Option three is the best by a good margin.

But option 3 is in reality two distinct options: you can leave while people still want you to stay or hang on past that point. I’d like to think I got it right here, which means I leave with a bittersweet feeling. This seems to me, though, the best way to go. It is far preferable to being forced to leave before you are ready or feeling a sense of relief or liberation as you walk out the door.

I am proud about how the Council increased its independence, maintained its nonpartisan identity, and expanded its impact, reach, and diversity over these two decades. And I am especially excited about all we did to become a resource for students and teachers at the middle, high school and college levels. You can learn more about what is now available by going to our education site.

For reasons I cannot quite explain, the past twenty years were also a productive time for me. I produced six books, including what is my personal favorite of all my books, War of Necessity War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars. And I wrote a few hundred articles. You can see some of those that appeared in Foreign Affairs here.

As for next steps, I intend to stay active in debates over foreign policy and civics alike. I also plan to use the summer to improve my golf game (more on this next week), to begin work with PBS on a documentary based on The Bill of Obligations, to settle on the subject of my next book, and, rest assured, to continue to produce Home & Away.

Finally, I want to wish the American readers of this newsletter a Happy Fourth of July. Do take a moment to read the Declaration of Independence while you wait for the grill to warm up or you recover from too many burgers and hot dogs. As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.

Share

Richard Haass in the news

Friday, June 23: Bloomberg Surveillance on U.S.-India relations, China, and American democracy, (begins at 33:36).
Sunday, June 25: MSNBC Yasmin Vossoughian Reports on Prigozhin's deal with Putin, the war in Ukraine and China.
Monday, June 26: Irish Times on Sinn Féin. MSNBC Morning Joe on the rebellion in Russia. CNBC Closing Bell on Russia and the counteroffensive in Ukraine (begins at 39:55).
Tuesday, June 27: The President's Inbox on the future of U.S. foreign policy. PBS NewsHour on The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.
Wednesday, June 28: A Conversation With Secretary Antony Blinken.
Thursday, June 29: Future Hindsight on The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens. MSNBC Morning Joe on Putin and the war in Ukraine and my time at CFR.

Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.

Home & Away

Exit Strategies (June 30, 2023)