February 3, 2023
Welcome to the second issue of Home & Away. I will focus on the debt ceiling talks that were joined on Wednesday when President Biden sat down with Speaker McCarthy. The White House is right on the substance and half right on the politics.
Increases in the debt ceiling should be unconditional, as they simply allow for financing of debt that has already been accumulated because of previous decisions on spending and taxation. Failure to raise the debt ceiling will not decrease U.S. debt, only the costs of financing it going forward. There would as well be other steep economic and political costs at home and abroad.
The way to reduce the growth or stock of U.S. debt is to cut future spending, increase revenues, or both. Putting country first, the tenth and ultimate obligation of The Bill of Obligations, would argue for raising the debt ceiling and then making the politically difficult decisions that are necessary to slow the accumulation of additional debt.
The Administration is right politically to call the House Republicans’ bluff and challenge them to cite specific spending cuts they would like to make going forward, something easier said than done given that so much of the budget pays for entitlements, debt financing, and national security. There are no easy cuts in any of these, and non-defense discretionary spending is simply too small to offer much in the way of budget savings.
I would suggest, though, that the White House erred in saying it wouldn’t negotiate, because it never looks good to oppose negotiation. That said, Wednesday’s meeting was the beginning of some sort of negotiation, and I’d like to think the odds are better than even the two sides will ultimately find a formula to avert a crisis that would cause great economic pain that could hurt all concerned politically.
Turning overseas, or “Away” to be more precise, there is much to worry about. Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to Israel and the only conclusion to draw is that this is a bad situation almost certain to get worse. We can have a debate over whether the two-state solution is alive or dead, but it is much closer to the latter than the former. Neither side has the will and the ability to compromise for peace.
In addition, and in part as a result, the potential for violence will grow, the result of actions carried out by Palestinian youths and Hamas, but also owing to various actions of Israeli settlers and government officials. Incidents at Islamic sites could prove particularly explosive.
There were reports of selective Russian non-compliance with the New Start nuclear pact. This is not surprising; it is always difficult to compartmentalize cooperation in a deteriorating relationship. Adding to this is that the Russians increasingly see nuclear weapons as central to their status as a major power given their demonstrated conventional military shortcomings.
Two other developments are worth noting. The first is Iran, where the regime has regained the upper hand over protestors. Second is Pakistan, a country of over 200 million with dozens of nuclear weapons, that shows every sign of becoming a failing state. It is not yet a failed state, and it is in the world’s interest it not become one. Preventing that will be difficult though.
Looking ahead, Secretary Blinken will be in China in a few days, where he will reportedly meet with Xi Jinping, becoming the first Secretary of State to do so in nearly six years. This is the latest in what I would argue is a tactical move by Beijing to lower tensions and put a floor on the relationship as it deals with a number of internal challenges and regional pushback against its assertive foreign policy. It would be a mistake, however, to read these signals out of Beijing as an indicator that its strategic intentions have changed in any meaningful way. We will get more clarity on this if, as some reports suggest, Xi will head to Moscow in the coming weeks to meet with Putin. How the curious balloon matter plays out will likewise be revealing. More on all this in next week’s newsletter.
Personally, most of my time this past week was taken up with my new book. I am pleased and then some to report The Bill of Obligations made it onto the New York Times bestseller list and cracked the top ten, just behind Bono’s Surrender and only nine slots behind Prince Harry’s Spare. I will do my best to keep hope alive. In the meantime, links to related articles and events can be found below.
In the news
Friday, January 27, 2023: MSNBC Morning Joe
Sunday, January 29, 2023: ABC News This Week
Tuesday, January 31, 2023: MSNBC Andrea Mitchell Reports, CFR DC Book Launch
Wednesday, February 1, 2023: MSNBC Morning Joe
Thursday, February 2, 2023: WVON Morning Show on WVON-AM, The Lisa Wexler Show on WICC-AM, The Roundtable on WAMC-FM/AM, The Ross Kaminsky Show on KOA-AM/FM
Articles:
The Pursuit of Profits Requires Strong Democracy, Barrons
A 10-Step Guide to Saving American Democracy, Bloomberg