Feeling Lonely (May 5, 2023)
Welcome to this week’s Home & Away. Here at home the immediate news is the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin announced that the day of reckoning is likely to arrive sooner than expected, as early as June 1, as a result of lower-than-anticipated tax receipts. All this comes amidst what is the Washington, DC version of chicken: The President has said he will not consider anything but a clean increase in the debt ceiling, while the Speaker seeks to use the vote to roll back many of this administration’s signature legislative accomplishments and place a low ceiling on future spending.
The president may be right in the abstract, but not in the real world; if we fail to raise the debt ceiling, the economic consequences (higher interest rates, an increased likelihood of a recession, accelerated moves away from the dollar, etc.) would be terrible for just about anyone and everyone and would occur on his watch just as we head into an election cycle. Pinning it all on the Republicans would be unlikely to succeed.
At the same time, McCarthy’s stance is likewise more of an opening bid than a bottom line as he too cannot be sure he and his party would not bear more than a little of the blame if things go south. The danger is that it might prove difficult for McCarthy to keep his majority intact if he compromises, which he will need to do if we are not to go over the cliff. A compromise might well require Democratic votes in the House. I can also imagine a scenario in which Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, markets dive, and only then does a compromise emerge. Stay tuned and fasten your seatbelts.
A second domestic matter I want to highlight is the report issued by Surgeon General Vivek Murthy. Titled Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation: The U.S. Surgeon General’s Advisory on the Healing Effects of Social Connection and Community, it is not the sort of thing you expect to see coming from the government. The report (which I am paraphrasing here) details the consequences of widespread loneliness not just for our individual physical health but also our collective social and political health, i.e., the harmful consequences for a society that lacks social connections for its schools, workplaces, and civic organizations, where performance, productivity, and engagement are diminished.
The fact that we have reached such a point would no doubt surprise Alexis de Tocqueville, who wrote in his classic Democracy in America about how the citizens of this country were distinguished by their tendency to associate with one another. It is one reason I highlighted the need to promote the common good in my latest book, The Bill of Obligations, arguing that doing so is necessary if this democracy of ours is to endure. It is also a reason to emphasize public service, which offers a path for individuals to do good not just for their communities but for themselves.
Speaking of my book, I want to note the decline in test scores reported this week for middle schoolers in history and civics. The civics decline was modest but notable given that it was the first drop reported since the test was introduced in the 1990s. Only 22 percent of eighth graders – just over one in five – were judged to be proficient in civics. One reason might be that reforms such as No Child Left Behind, by emphasizing reading, math, and science, inadvertently sent the signal that schools could safely de-emphasize civics. I continue to think that preparing young Americans for citizenship is essential if this democratic experiment of ours is to endure much less flourish, and that civics education ought to be mandatory for middle and high school students as well as a requirement for graduation from college.
As for Away, I want to begin with Ukraine. I am a frequent critic of Speaker McCarthy, but his comments in Israel in response to a question from a Russian journalist were welcome. Actually, they were welcome twice over: both as a signal to Putin, who clearly is hoping that American and Western resolve is fading, and as a signal to his Israeli hosts, whose reluctance to support Ukraine and distance themselves from Russia has been a major disappointment.
A few more things on Ukraine: The drone “attack” on Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin looks like nothing so much as a Russian false flag operation intended to provide justification for new missile strikes on Ukraine’s leadership and government buildings in Kyiv and other cities. Russia may also have been driven by a desire to shore up support among the Russian population ahead of what could prove to be a punishing Ukrainian counteroffensive. The effort was crude and clumsy and persuaded few I would think, although I expect it will feed into the government’s narrative of Russia as a victim.
I read Anne Applebaum and Jeffrey Goldberg’s essay in the Atlantic that argues for what I would describe as a maximalist position vis-à-vis Ukraine. The article defines victory as Ukraine regaining every last inch of its 1991 self; an end to all Russian attacks on the country and its people; and “some kind of justice.” It also calls for Russian leaders to acknowledge both that the war was a mistake and that Ukraine is an independent country with the right to exist. All this may well be desirable, but I doubt much of it is achievable any time soon. Which brings us back to what I have been writing about and discussing for some time now, namely, the need to think about what is both achievable and acceptable in Ukraine, the costs of continued fighting, and our other interests around the world.
Also well worth listening to on Ukraine and several other subjects is the interview conducted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, the editor of Foreign Affairs, with General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Chairman carefully but unmistakably casts doubt on what either Russia or Ukraine might be expected to accomplish militarily this year. He also reminds the listener how difficult China would find a direct military move against Taiwan…and he waxes thoughtfully about emerging technologies and their impact on the character of future conflict. Like I said, 30 minutes well-spent.
Finally, there is the deteriorating situation in Sudan. I won’t pretend to be an expert, but it is difficult to see Sudan becoming a normal country in the foreseeable future given its internal divisions and the focus on most governments on other places and matters. It is a reminder that stability in the world is jeopardized not just by strong states (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran) but also by weak ones. Alas, Sudan is but one of many. One could easily add Pakistan to the list along with a good many countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Whatever else the future holds, global order does not seem to be high on the list.
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Richard Haass in the news
Friday, April 28: Spoke with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada at CFR, where we discussed Canada’s role in the world, the war in Ukraine, and trade.
Monday, May 1: The “Bill of Obligations”: A Law Day Conversation with Dr. Richard Haass event at the New York City Bar Association.
Tuesday, May 2: Joined MSNBC’s Morning Joe to discuss Speaker McCarthy’s visit to Israel and his vocal support for aid to Ukraine. Chicago Council on Global Affairs Protecting American Democracy: What Can Americans Do? event with Ivo Daalder.