Five Uneasy Pieces (May 24, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. It was a busy week. Taiwan’s new president took office and delivered his inaugural address, and although it largely signaled a continuation of the status quo, China is demonstrating its displeasure with a show of military force around the island. The UK prime minister called for a snap election in July despite polls showing that the Tories would likely lose in a landslide to Labour. Donald Trump and his lawyers determined he would not take the stand in his “hush money” trial that will soon head to the jury; I increasingly believe that whatever the ultimate verdict, Trump will benefit politically. Nikki Haley unsurprisingly, but disappointingly all the same, announced she would be voting for Trump, justifying it by excessively criticizing Joe Biden’s foreign policy while mostly giving Trump a free pass. I expect I will return to all of these topics in due time; what follows, though, are five other stories from this week that warrant immediate attention.
Triangulation
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin signed their “no limits” joint statement on the eve of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since then, there has been a good deal of speculation as to whether Xi was miffed at the Russian invasion and/or surprised by how poorly it fared over the next two years.
That said, there is little reason to believe that Beijing is looking to create distance between itself and Moscow. During Putin’s visit to Beijing last week, the two countries concluded a follow-on pact, reached against the backdrop of a war that of late has favored Russia. This latest statement reflects Chinese support for the Russian position in Ukraine and Russia’s for China’s approach to Taiwan—as well as a shared opposition to the American conception of world order and antipathy toward the U.S.-led international system. The “no limits” phrase (that had described their relationship in the 2022 statement) was not repeated, but it is implicit throughout.
Forty years ago, triangular diplomacy worked to the advantage of the United States, as Washington maintained better relations with both Moscow and Beijing than they had with each other. Now, however, the triangle works against U.S. interests, as these two authoritarian leaders have decided that their shared priorities far outweigh other considerations, including their relationship with the United States, which both apparently see as being of limited value and, in any event, deteriorating. Despite calls that appear periodically for the United States to do a “reverse Kissinger” and split Moscow and Beijing, I see no grounds for thinking Washington can prevent this ever-closer alignment much less engineer a schism between these two countries under their current leadership.
One addendum to the above. The Financial Times reported UK Minister of Defence Grant Shapps’ claim that China is “providing or preparing to provide” lethal aid, i.e., combat equipment, to Russia. (The U.S. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, expressed some surprise over this assertion.) But if this were to happen, it would constitute a significant decision by China to help Russia beyond its ongoing purchases of sanctioned Russian fossil fuels, sharing of satellite intelligence, and provision of dual-use items that have allowed Russia to produce more in the way of munitions and equipment than would have been possible otherwise. Just as significant is that this shift would represent a clear rejection of explicit and public U.S. demands and repeated private warnings that China not take such a step, one which would be met with new U.S. sanctions and quite possibly increased military help for Ukraine.
The Meddle East
You would think at this point that the Middle East has proven itself capable of sufficiently messing things up on its own without outsiders needing to find ways to add to it. But, just as clearly, many in the world cannot resist the temptation to make a bad situation worse. Two things happened this week worth noting and criticizing.
The first is the decision by the governments of Ireland, Norway, and Spain to formally recognize a Palestinian state. The New York Times headline described this development as a blow to Israel, but I would argue it is actually more of a blow to Palestinians. These European actions feed the illusion (already widespread in the upper reaches of the Palestinian Authority) that the road to a Palestinian state runs through UN resolutions or statements by EU members, when in fact it can only run through Israel and direct talks between both parties. If there is to be a Palestinian state, it will be negotiated, not delivered, and it will require Israelis and Palestinians alike accepting certain conditions and compromises.
Outsiders can facilitate such talks, but their efforts cannot substitute for efforts by the protagonists themselves. Palestinians must renounce violence and terrorist organizations such as Hamas to assure Israel that it has a partner both willing and able to make peace. Not only can the rest of the world not do this for the Palestinians, but these recognitions will further contribute to Israelis’ growing suspicions than they are being pressured into accepting an outcome inconsistent with their security.
The second counter-productive development was the decision by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to seek arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leaders including Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammed Deif. Putting aside the truly offensive moral equivalence here, as well as the legal argument that the ICC has no reason to get involved with Israeli leaders given the country’s own functioning legal institutions, you have to ask yourself how this ICC move helps bring the war to a close, secure the hostages’ release, or pave the way to a Palestinian state.
Let me suggest that it does none of these things or, worse yet, makes progress on them even more unlikely than it already was. Leaders will be less likely to act constructively if they face penalties for what they have done or are accused of doing. Plus, the warrant strengthens Netanyahu, a principal obstacle to a political settlement, at a time he is under mounting pressure at home, as it bolsters his narrative that he is a victim of global antisemitism and that Israelis need him to push back against such hostility. The last thing this conflict needs are symbolic actions that make it more difficult to deal with real-world problems.
Some more Israel mentions. There is a growing chorus of criticism of the prime minister for his refusal to articulate a long-term strategy for Gaza. First there was Defense Minister Gallant, and now Benny Gantz has come out publicly to decry the lack of a serious plan to end this war and to lament that the government’s failure to articulate one has doomed the IDF to clear and re-clear the same areas in Gaza with no end in sight and mounting Israeli casualties. They are right, but, unfortunately, I am far from convinced that their speeches will change anything.
Nor, for the time being, will the Saudi desire to normalize relations with Israel, something it is prepared to do in exchange for a security treaty and civilian nuclear energy assistance from the United States. Missing from the picture is an expression of any Israeli willingness to satisfy at least some Palestinian political aspirations and consider a credible pathway to a Palestinian state, something the Saudis need to win over their own public if they pursue normalization and the Biden administration needs to win over Senate Democrats who are wary of making such firm commitments to Saudi Arabia given its human rights record and past foreign policy choices.
Succession
This week also saw the deaths of the Iranian president and foreign minister in a helicopter crash. I find it impossible to mourn those responsible for so many deaths and so much repression. That aside, I don’t think this development will change much of anything in Iran. It is not just that these individuals had limited impact on foreign policy, but also that the basic policies of hostility to the United States and Israel are central to the regime’s DNA and will remain so.
The biggest effect of the crash might well be on who ultimately succeeds Iran’s Supreme Leader. The incumbent is 85 and reportedly in ill health. President Ebrahim Raisi was widely thought to be a strong candidate to be his successor. Some are now saying Ayatollah Khamenei will be succeeded by another Khamenei, as in his son, but I find it hard to imagine the Iranians would put someone in that powerful of a position who lacks the credentials and, arguably, the legitimacy. The revolution overthrew a hereditary monarchy and is likely to think twice before becoming one itself.
Not Normal
This week, the New York Times ran a story that Justice Samuel Alito flew an inverted American flag—a symbol of distress that has come to be associated with the so-called “Stop the Steal” campaign that rejects the results of the 2020 presidential election—outside his home in January 2021, around the time of the January 6 insurrection. What makes this news even more troubling is that the flag was flown just as the Court was considering whether to hear a case challenging the election (which it ultimately chose not to).
Alito did not deny that the upside-down flag flew outside his home, instead attributing it to his wife (cherchez la femme) and justifying it as simply a reaction to some anti-Trump neighbors, an explanation that both makes no sense and is no excuse. (Further weakening his argument is the fact that a second politically-charged flag, this one associated both with January 6 as well as a push to remake American government in Christian terms, was seen flying outside his summer property as recently as last year.)
All this is but the latest in a long list of examples of a Supreme Court that has gone rogue, robbing American democracy of a government institution that traditionally had been viewed as nonpartisan, legitimate, and prepared to act in the best interests of the country rather than on behalf of a particular ideology. Instead, what we have is a Supreme Court where the chief justice has lost control of the court to a five-person radical majority.
Just as clear is that norms don’t hold much sway these days, which is a true signal of distress, as norms—what I define in The Bill of Obligations as the unwritten traditions, rules, customs, conventions, codes of conduct, and practices that reduce frictions and brittleness in a society—are required for a democracy to succeed since they encourage behaviors that cannot be legislated but are nonetheless essential.
Golf-gate
The just-concluded PGA Championship, one of golf’s four major tournaments, was as good as it gets in terms of the golf. I was glad to see Xander Schauffele not wilt under the pressure of the final weekend; to the contrary, he won it by one stroke with a birdie on the 72nd and final hole. Few will remember this, though, as the tournament will forever be known as the one in which Scottie Scheffler, the world’s #1, was arrested and charged with no less than four felonies while trying to enter the premises on the second day.
I won’t rehash what transpired, other than to say the scene at the entrance was chaotic (to use the word Scheffler used over and over at his press conference) in the aftermath of a fatal accident there earlier that morning. Two things stood out for me. Scheffler did his pre-round stretching that same Friday morning on the floor of a jail cell, which has to be a first. And second, after he was booked, finger-printed, and photographed, he went out and shot a five under par 66. He had a letdown the next day, and then a good final round on Sunday to finish in the top ten. My guess is he would have been in the thick of it had it not been for the arrest. But, even so, his ability to compartmentalize is impressive and then some.
Scheffler’s arraignment was delayed until June 3 over the objections of the local prosecutor, who clearly did not coordinate with the local chamber of commerce, as Louisville’s chances of hosting another major sporting event any time soon have suddenly become modest. Why the charges were not just dismissed or at least dramatically reduced is beyond me, but then again much about golf is beyond me.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens