Welcome to Home & Away. As seems to be the new normal, there is no shortage of subjects and developments (be they domestic or international) to write about.
Haley’s Comet
Here at Home the good news is that a government shutdown was averted, at least for now. It was a rare bipartisan moment, as almost all Democrats and a narrow majority of House Republicans came together to fund the government for the next few months. The not so good news is that we are talking about yet another temporary respite, as funding will need to be approved again in early 2024. And even this brief reprieve came at a price, as military assistance for Ukraine and Israel (not to mention what President Biden requested for the border wall and Taiwan) is nowhere to be found in the continuing resolution Congress ultimately approved.
The Republican presidential field is now down to five: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy. In all key primary states and national polls, Trump is still the front-runner by a wide margin, which is both tragic and dangerous. His most recent outburst, calling his political opponents “vermin,” is the sort of dehumanizing language that comes right out of the authoritarian playbook and paves the way for violence. No less troubling was the latest New York Times account of his intentions for immigration policy, plans which include selective entry bans, detention camps, mass deportations, and more. Putting aside all the humanitarian and legal concerns, what is missing is any appreciation of the role immigration has played over this country’s history in building up its society and adding to its economic dynamism.
Nikki Haley is clearly emerging as the principal alternative to Trump. And there is a possible path for her. She could finish second in the Iowa caucuses and then score a strong second to Trump in New Hampshire, where she has already jumped 14 points since August. She should also benefit from the fact that not just registered Republicans, but also unaffiliated voters can vote in New Hampshire’s Republican primary. Then, she would face off against Trump in her home state of South Carolina. The odds still favor Trump, but Haley is gaining momentum and would have a good shot at being the next president of the United States if she can somehow garner the nomination.
Tim Scott has also decided to call it a day, which even Trump’s own pollsters anticipate should help Haley’s numbers. He ran a disappointing race that was long in retelling his biography and short on everything else. His optimism made for a poor fit with the angry times. But, by dropping out early, he has preserved and arguably increased the chances he will be tapped by Trump to be his vice president, a move I bet would appeal to Trump as it could lead to further inroads in the African-American vote, which is already worrying Democrats.
Otherwise, the week was a mixed bag for America. The Supreme Court at long last adopted an ethics code, although what, if any, difference it will make remains to be seen, given its lack of enforcement mechanisms among other issues. But the development of the code suggests the Court is not totally tone deaf. The awful news is male life expectancy in this country is now at 73.5 years, almost six years below what the average woman can expect.
Floor Plan
As for Away, there are two big stories this week. The first concerns the United States and China. On Wednesday, Presidents Biden and Xi met for several hours on the margins of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in San Francisco. President Biden has long sought to set a floor under this critical—but increasingly contentious—relationship, and he may have achieved it, at least for now, in part because his Chinese counterpart appears to want this as well.
What makes it all interesting is that the two want to establish a floor for different reasons. Biden wants to stabilize the relationship as he is urgently looking to prevent a geopolitical crisis in a third part of the world. He also needs to demonstrate in an election year that U.S. pressure has forced China to mend its ways, especially on hot button domestic issues like the Chinese export of the chemical precursors used to make fentanyl.
Xi, for his part, wants to avoid any new American export controls, tariffs, or sanctions that would exacerbate China’s economic woes. This explains his willingness to sign on to constructive-sounding statements on climate change and artificial intelligence, and his agreeing to re-establish military-to-military communications. The same calculation will hopefully lead him to act with restraint over Taiwan and in the South China Sea, and not to cross a line when it comes to support of Russia or Iran.
As welcome as some, or even all, of this is, it is not quite time for cartwheels. A floor is just that, a floor. It is premised more on what the two major powers are prepared to avoid, not what they want to accomplish. In addition, and as we have seen in the past, there is no guarantee the two countries will be able to maintain any floor coming out of San Francisco, which was long on pledges that need sustained commitment and follow-up to be implemented. Whether China upholds its end of the bargain remains to be seen, as Trump and Xi signed a similar agreement on fentanyl in 2019. Observers still recall Xi’s pledge not to militarize the South China Sea when he visited the White House in 2015 and look how that turned out. Talk of a reset in relations is thus premature and then some, especially as 2024 promises to be a challenging year, one ushered in by elections in Taiwan and closed by elections here in the United States.
The bottom line is that U.S.-China relations remain something to be managed, not a problem to be solved. Expecting anything else from the summit was to expect too much. The world’s most important relationship remains a highly competitive one, and the challenge remains what it was: to see that competition does not preclude selective cooperation or give way to conflict. My monthly Project Syndicate column, published this morning, explores the summit and its implications in more depth.
I want to say one more thing about the U.S.-China summit, or, more accurately, the run-up to the summit. The plan was for the United States to announce a new trade initiative with regional countries under the banner of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). It made good economic and strategic sense alike, especially as neither the Trump nor Biden administrations moved ahead with U.S. membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
But the Biden administration got cold feet and dropped the new trade effort when Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (long known for his protectionist stances and who faces a tough re-election battle) pushed back. This is but the latest evidence that trade has become a four-letter word. Few Republicans or Democrats support it anymore, something that ought to make one reconsider the value of bipartisanship. The outcome is bad for American businesses and consumers alike. Not to mention that we have all but given up on a tool that could advance climate goals while enabling us to deal with China from a position of strength.
More Middle East
As for the Middle East, the past week saw more of the same. The United States and Israel are right to reject calls for a cease-fire, which makes no sense when Hamas remains committed to killing Jews and Israel’s destruction. But the best way to push off calls for one is by agreeing to several day pauses that would allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza and ideally be linked to deals that would free some of the hostages. The Biden administration seems to be warming to the idea, which already has international backing. Just this week, the UN Security Council voted to adopt Resolution 2712, which calls for “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors” in Gaza for “a sufficient number of days” and additionally “calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas and other groups.” While the United States did not vote in favor of the resolution, it critically chose to abstain rather than veto it.
Israeli policy still lacks anything resembling an endgame. I continue to believe President Biden should visit Israel and speak directly to the Israeli people, over the heads of this prime minister and this government. His focus should be on the immediate military challenge, reminding Israelis that what makes a war just is not simply its rationale but how it is conducted. There seems to be some progress in this regard as Israel is turning more to targeted raids by special operations forces rather than aerial strikes.
Biden also needs to speak to what comes after. Here, unfortunately, there has been no progress. To the contrary, settlers are intimidating Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and there is now talk of expanding settlements into Gaza. The prime minster has also publicly ruled out the Palestinian Authority assuming a role in governing Gaza and Israel’s president has said the country will maintain a “very strong force” in Gaza. The only way Israel can avoid a long and costly, and ultimately unsuccessful, occupation of Gaza is to set in motion a political process that would, over time, bring about a Palestinian partner willing to live peacefully alongside Israel. To use a word that permeates this edition of Home & Away, when it comes to Palestinian political aspirations, there is not yet a floor upon which the foundations of a state could be built. Such a floor is desperately needed, and only the United States can start the building process.
Rethinking Ukraine
My colleague Charlie Kupchan and I have been talking for some time about revisiting the issues that informed our piece in Foreign Affairs last April, and today happens to be the day Foreign Affairs published the new article. Titled “Redefining Success in Ukraine,” it argues that Ukraine and its Western friends are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a mismatch between stated ends and available means. It recommends that the United States begin consultations with Ukraine and European governments on a new strategy, one that would call for a cease-fire and switch Ukraine’s military emphasis from offense to defense. We believe this would be the best way to protect and preserve military and economic support for Ukraine and Ukraine itself even if, as is likely, Russia rejects the cease-fire offer. The piece is sure to be controversial and unwelcome by many, but we believe what it has to say needs to be heeded. In any event, I, and we, hope you will read it in full.
Lastly, an administrative note. I will not be releasing an edition of this newsletter next Friday; it seems only right to allow you to digest your Thanksgiving meal in peace. If I feel compelled to reach out to you next week, it will be before the holiday—speaking of which, I want to wish a good one for you all, one that provides something of a break from all that is churning at Home & Away alike.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Monday, November 13: MSNBC Morning Joe on the return of PM Cameron to office in the U.K.
Wednesday, November 15: MSNBC Morning Joe & MSNBC Reports with Yasmin Vossoughian on Xi-Biden summit in California.
Thursday, November 16: MSNBC Morning Joe on the meeting between Biden and Xi (audio-only; begins at 4:35)
Articles
Redefining Success in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs)
Summing Up the Biden-Xi Summit (Project Syndicate)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.