Fox, Democracy & Demography
An interesting week both at Home & Away. Unless you watch Fox News, you would know the big news at home is Fox News, and in particular its settlement of the lawsuit (at the cost of $787.5 million) brought against it by Dominion Voting Systems. I understand why Dominion did what it did, and it may well have been the wise decision from its perspective, but it is hard for the rest of us not to feel a bit cheated.
Dominion’s decision to settle ended the prospect of a trial that would have brought with it a gripping and important civics lesson, one in which a powerful media organization was raked over the coals for trafficking in what it knew to be lies. The courtroom could have become a classroom highlighting Fox News’s failure, or more accurately refusal, to meet even the most basic obligations of legitimate journalists. Ideally, this would have had a bracing effect on the folks purporting to be journalists at Fox and elsewhere. Whether there will be any reflection at Fox or elsewhere remains to be seen. The public statement by Fox News’ parent corporation – “This settlement reflects FOX's continued commitment to the highest journalistic standards” – provides ample grounds for skepticism, although it is possible the pending $2.7 billion Smartmatic USA lawsuit may add to the costs of acting irresponsibly and hence add to the deterrence effect.
Speaking of things domestic, I also want to highlight a typically thoughtful piece by Thomas Edsall of the New York Times. The essay chronicles the hollowing out and growing illiberalism of many democracies, most notably this one. An odd mix of majoritarianism and minoritarianism is at work. What we are seeing time and again are individuals advancing their political agendas no matter the cost to the country.
The idea that the threat peaked with January 6 and has passed is a dangerous illusion. Hopefully a future essay by Mr. Edsall will address remedies for what ails us here in the United States. In the meantime, I would point readers toward a recent book – you guessed it – The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens, which is all about what politicians, CEOs, educators, religious and congregational leaders, and ordinary citizens can do to save our valuable but endangered democracy.
As for Away, I want to reopen my virtual copy of the New York Times and go to a story on demographics, more specifically on India passing China as the world’s most populous country. This is an important development for both countries. For China, it is an outcome of economic growth, urbanization, rising cost of living paired with an insufficient social safety net, and the one-child policy, all of which have contributed to an aging and now declining population and a gender imbalance. Some estimate that China’s population could fall by nearly half, from 1.4 billion to a number in the range of 800 million, by the end of this century. Were this to happen, it would have all sorts of ramifications for China’s economy and productivity, none of them good.
The implications of becoming number one for India are decidedly mixed. India, already the world’s fifth-largest economy, will continue to move up, but GDP per capita, now maybe one-fourth that of China’s, will increase only slightly. For a long time there have been two Indias, one of a large urbanized middle class, another of an even larger pool or poor people in rural areas and cities alike. This will persist.
Finding good jobs for young Indians is and will remain a problem for the government. India still faces challenges related to its caste system, while a growing Hindu nationalism jeopardizes the country’s social fabric in light of the country’s large (more than two hundred million) Muslim minority. India is also showing signs of the illiberalism afflicting other democracies. Further complicating India’s future is mounting instability in Pakistan, its neighbor and longtime adversary. As if that were not complicated enough, India has an increasingly competitive and even confrontational relationship with China, a neighbor with whom India has territorial disputes that have recently escalated to violence. All of which is to say the often euphoric predictions one encounters as to India’s future seem more than a little premature.
Before I end with a few links, I just want to mention that the recent piece I wrote with Charlie Kupchan in Foreign Affairs advocating a new strategy for our policy toward Ukraine and the war is getting a lot of attention. As expected, some of it is favorable, some not. Some of the critics call us warmongers and others appeasers; go figure. In any event, I am if anything more convinced than ever that a serious debate over our policy is overdue. So I am providing a link to it again this week in case you missed it or want to look at it a second time.
Last, this past week saw the celebration of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement. Although things in Northern Ireland are far from perfect, they are orders of magnitude better than they were during the three decades of the Troubles and much better than they would have been were it not for the combined efforts of the British, Irish and American governments and the willingness of quite a few political leaders of Northern Ireland to step up to the moment. I have a piece on the lessons to be drawn from the diplomacy (and how they might be applied to an effort to end the war in Ukraine) coming out next week that appropriately enough I will include in next week’s newsletter.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
In the news
Monday, April 17: Presided over CFR's C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Christine Lagarde, where we discussed Europe’s economy, the banking sector, and inflation.
Tuesday, April 18: "Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel” on HBO on Russian athletes competing in the Olympics (video password: realsports). Spoke about The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens as part of the Sumners Civics Lecture presented by the Dallas World Affairs Council & the Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations.
Wednesday, April 19: Joined Conversations With Jim Zirin to discuss The Bill of Obligations.
Thursday, April 20: Open Book with Anthony Scaramucci podcast on The Bill of Obligations.
Articles:
In Foreign Affairs on a new strategy for the West in Ukraine.