Gee Whiz 20 (September 8, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. As difficult as it may well be for some in the United States to believe, the most interesting developments of late have occurred Away. The obvious place to start is the Group of Twenty (G20), set to convene for a summit this weekend in Delhi. In principle, it ought to be an important event given the context: war in Europe, the hottest year on record, mounting tensions in the Asia-Pacific, lingering instability in the Middle East, growing protectionism, and slowing economic growth.
In reality, though, the G20 will have little if any impact on these and other pressing issues. This should come as little surprise, as the G20 tends to disappoint. It is a gathering, not an institution. There tends to be little follow up. The large membership that is increasingly divided on the most pressing issues of the day, rotating leadership, and lack of permanent professional staff also explain why little tends to come from these meetings.
A Deal on the Sidelines?
What is often more important than the official sessions are the side meetings. Here I will be looking for what could emerge from the expected bilateral between President Biden and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, aka MBS. The Biden administration has been pushing hard for a grand bargain involving the United States, Israel and the Kingdom. The Saudis want a treaty-based security guarantee and a meaningful (and somewhat autonomous) civilian nuclear energy program. The Israelis want political normalization with the Saudis. The Biden administration wants progress on the Palestinian front, something it views as both desirable and as necessary to get buy-in for any such deal from Democrats in Congress. The administration also wants to wean the Saudis from China and Russia.
I am not so much skeptical as to the possibility of a deal as I am of its attractiveness. Providing a security umbrella and nuclear assistance to the Saudis is risky given that they are not a democratic ally and their penchant for independent action that does not often take into consideration American interests and concerns. And it is far from clear that this Israeli government would sign up to and more importantly implement meaningful concessions when it comes to increasing Palestinian self-governance and reining in settlements. The danger is that the deal would provide the current Israeli prime minister a major political victory when he is doing much to weaken Israeli democracy and further undermine prospects for reaching an accommodation with the Palestinians.
Absent from Delhi
Returning to the G20, there is the absence this year of both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Putin’s decision not to attend was long expected as he is wary of leaving Russia given his international legal situation. He also has no desire to be the object of widespread criticism over the war in Ukraine. He is focused on prevailing in the war and persevering at home, and it is unclear how spending a few days in India would serve those ends.
Xi’s eleventh-hour decision not to attend the G20 was more of a surprise given that he has joined the gathering every year during his decade in power. He may be trying to convey unhappiness with India’s larger strategic tilt toward the West and/or frustration over border differences and hoping that his absence takes away from the luster of India’s big moment. He may have also concluded that the time is not auspicious for a bilateral meeting with President Biden but would find it difficult to turn one down if they are both in the same room. But the more interesting possibility is that he wanted to remain at home to deal with China’s growing economic problems and the potential they will pose political problems for him.
The New York Times’ chief China correspondent summed the situation up this way: “Consumers are gloomy. Private investment is sluggish. A big property firm is near collapse. Local governments face crippling debt. Youth unemployment has continued to rise. The economic setbacks are eroding Mr. Xi’s image of imperious command, and emerging as perhaps the most sustained and thorny challenge to his agenda in over a decade of power.”
China’s economic difficulties are real. What is hard to know is what if any consequences they will have for either Chinese politics or its foreign policy. It is also impossible to know whether Xi is prepared to introduce changes that make economic sense but would dilute his authority. As is often the case when it comes to China, there are more questions than answers.
One other point regarding China. Xi’s decision not to attend the G20 summit comes after a series of mysterious events, from the disappearance of China’s foreign minister to the purging of the senior leadership of the PLA Rocket Force, which oversees China’s nuclear arsenal, and the forced exit of Xi’s predecessor from the Party Congress last fall. The opacity of Chinese politics has increased under Xi, and the machinations of elite politics in Beijing remain very much a black box. This should worry both foreign policy analysts and investors, who cannot be confident in their read on where China is or is heading.
In principle the absence of Putin and Xi should make it easier for President Biden to dominate the G20. But here again principle is not the same as reality. India will be careful not to allow the proceedings to turn into a ganging up on Russia, which remains an important source of weapons and energy for Delhi. China, for all the differences over the border, is a neighbor India handles with care. India is not about to move far from its tradition of conducting a non-aligned foreign policy, which is a fancy set of words for hedging. Nor is India’s prime minister prepared to push on climate change lest doing so highlight what his own government is failing to do to meet the challenge.
India No More?
Speaking of India, one curiosity worth noting is the G20 dinner invite that referenced not India but Bharat, the Hindi name for India, a name seen by some to have colonial overtones. Bharat actually receives one mention in the Indian constitution, but the fact it is surfacing now is no accident. It is all consistent with Prime Minister Modi’s efforts over the years to make India into more of a Hindu country and less of a secular one. India (or Bharat if the new name becomes commonplace) is still a democracy, but a decidedly less liberal one.
Back to the War
The war in Ukraine will also form the backdrop to the G20 and much else. There is a good deal of debate as to the effectiveness of and prospects for the counter-offensive, now three months old. What progress there is has been modest but it constitutes progress all the same. The question is whether Russian lines hold until they do not and whether we are approaching such a point.
There is obviously no way of knowing, although reports of a pending visit by North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un to Russia are instructive, as it suggests Russia needs ammunition and equipment, both of which are being used up at a rapid clip given the intensity of the fighting. The possible visit and deal are instructive in another way, namely, that in today’s world, it is difficult to isolate a country given just how many other countries and companies are prepared to go their own way. That Russia would likely provide North Korea with nuclear assistance in exchange would further lead to the emergence of a region and a world in which more military capacity is in more hands than ever before.
News, Norms, & Holds
Here at Home, it was a week without new indictments, which is news if you stop to think about it. Polls show Trump and Biden neck and neck. Age is more and more a dominant consideration. It is not that the president is that much older than his predecessor and likely challenger, it is that he seems to be much older and less vital. It is a problem that the passage of time will only make worse. The pending indictment of Hunter Biden is another problem that will not get better with time. Fair or not, it allows Donald Trump to direct attention away from his own legal troubles and speak of double standards, something that reinforces his message of victimhood to his base.
Two other brief items here at Home. The first was the decision by the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, not to show up when the president visited his state in the wake of a hurricane. One of the obligations in The Bill of Obligations (number six to be precise) is to observe norms. It was and still is a norm to respect the president, even if he is of the other party and you are seeking his job. One wonders about someone’s willingness to put country before party or person (obligation ten) if he will not even do it for his state at a time of crisis.
Then there is Tommy Tuberville, the senator from Alabama who lives in Florida. It is an outrage that he is holding up a host of nominations and promotions that affect military readiness and morale because of his views on abortion. But what is also an outrage is that individual senators have this power. It would be hard to think of a better moment for Democrats and Republicans to come together to limit or better yet get rid of this non-democratic practice that has no constitutional basis. If there ever was a perversion of the principle of one man one vote, this is it.
Finally, some good news to end on. No, not my golf game, sadly. Instead, the decision by Stanford to require all first year students to take a core course on civics, aka Obligation 9. And second, the joint call by 13 presidential centers on citizens and public officials to "engage in civil dialogue; respect democratic institutions and rights; uphold safe, secure, and accessible elections; and contribute to local, state, or national improvement." Or, if you prefer, to embrace Obligations 4, 6, 7, and 8. Here’s hoping it happens.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Wednesday, September 6: CNN Amanpour on the G20 Summit
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.