Groundhog Day (August 18, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. It is feeling like Groundhog Day, as once again the lead story here at Home is the indictment (the fourth for those counting) of the 45th president of the United States. It is tempting to become inured, but like most temptations, this one should be resisted, as what is alleged to have taken place is nothing short of extraordinary. The Georgia charges depict a concerted, mob-like effort to illegally overturn the results of an election demonstrated to be free and fair.
We are not surprised when we read of this sort of thing taking place in authoritarian countries or in one or another faux-democracy elsewhere. But it nearly happened here, in the world’s oldest and most established democracy. The bid to mount what in effect was a coup d’etat came much too close to succeeding for comfort. We were bailed out — American democracy was bailed out — by a few individuals, including the then-vice president and some state election officials, people willing to put country before party or person at a moment when a good many other individuals, including the former president and at least eighteen others, did just the opposite. For good reason I dedicated The Bill of Obligations to these principled and courageous people who withstood tremendous pressure and did the right thing at this critical moment.
It is worth contemplating how we arrived at such a perilous point. It is easy but not good enough to chalk it up to Donald Trump and his pronounced narcissism that time and again short-circuits any patriotism he might possess. We need to look inward, at ourselves, at our collective failure to teach civics to our young people, to the persistent denigration of public service, and to our diminished media landscape. Above all, we need to address the fact that too many of us do not bother to get informed and involved in our politics, in the process ceding the field too often to those who are misinformed or focused only on themselves rather than their fellow citizens, the country, or our democracy. All of which is to say the legal machinery now set in motion may rid us of Donald Trump, but even if it does (and I would bet it does not) it will not address the context that made and makes it possible for him to do what he does.
The Fire Next Door
Also falling under the Groundhog Day banner are the terrible fires in Maui. The images are biblical. More than one hundred people lost their lives, with the death toll all but certain to rise. One can attribute this in part to what appears to be a marked unpreparedness on the part of local authorities for this sort of contingency. But the larger lesson is that these fires provide further evidence, along with recent floods and storms and extreme heat, that climate change is as much a near and present danger as a future one. It constitutes a threat to how we live our lives and to life itself.
Climate change, largely driven by human activity and above all the widespread burning of fossil fuels, still has not generated effective national and global action. There is an enormous gap between the problem and the response. I see no reason to believe the international gatherings scheduled for this year (especially COP 28, set to start in the UAE in late November) will make a dent. Too many governments (including those of China and India, the two most populous countries in the world) are unwilling to place climate concerns over economic growth and immediate political calculations.
Second, people around the world and in this country have not yet adapted their lives. For all sorts of understandable reasons, they prefer to live where and how they have always lived, even if it will be more difficult, dangerous, and costly to do so given the effects of climate change.
Among other things, all this adds up to a crisis for the insurance and reinsurance industries. We are already seeing higher premiums or the complete withdrawal of insurance availability for homes in areas of great risk. And if the private sector refuses to cover the replacement of homes, then the public sector, i.e., governments, will be pressured to step in. This will become another burden on taxpayers, especially if few conditions are placed on where people can live or on building requirements to make them less vulnerable.
Interesting Interest Rates
As for Away, there are several things to comment on. The Russian economy is in trouble, forcing the government to raise interest rates to stabilize the ruble that had fallen sharply amidst economic overheating tied to the war effort and economic mismanagement. Mr. Putin can start wars and imprison opponents, but he cannot buck the laws of economics. It will be interesting to see if the economic situation there deteriorates further, and, if it does, if it leads Putin to become somewhat more open to ending the war and getting out from under some of the sanctions contributing to Russia’s economic woes.
Interest rates in China are moving in the opposition direction. China’s central bank lowered them to encourage lending and spending, in an effort to jumpstart economic growth that has stalled now that the post-Covid-19 lockdown sugar high has worn off. This move, though, is unlikely to turn things around meaningfully given the continued existence of many policies that have done so much to discourage investment, consumption, and transparency. China wants the benefits of a market economy without having one. It would be a neat trick if the government could pull it off, which it increasingly seems it cannot. I plan to write about this in more depth in my next column for Project Syndicate, so stay tuned.
Crying for Argentina
Then there is Argentina. The first round of the presidential election was won by Javier Milei, an economist and political newcomer who espouses a radical libertarian but also culturally conservative agenda that includes abolishing the country’s central bank, introducing dollarization, shrinking the size and role of the government, rejecting the reality of climate change, and opposition to abortion. No one can say as yet how he will fare in the October election. But whatever happens, his strong showing is a reminder that populism can prosper in any country where economic growth is low, corruption is present, public education is poor, and inflation is high.
Unhappy Anniversary in Kabul
This week marks two years since the United States exited Afghanistan. Most of the commentary over these two years has focused on the haphazard withdrawal that left thirteen American soldiers dead and countless Afghans vulnerable. But this focus, however understandable, is insufficient as it only looks at how we did what we did rather than at what we did.
What also merits attention is the decision to withdraw. I continue to believe it was ill-advised. The United States had reduced its military presence significantly (to a few thousand troops), but that was arguably enough along with contractors and NATO forces to allow the elected Afghan government to continue to function. Staying would not have brought peace or military victory, but it would have avoided what we now have (Taliban control) at a relatively modest cost. U.S. casualties had plummeted years before the hurried exit when U.S. participation in combat operations ended. The notion that there would be a new, reformed Taliban was and remains preposterous.
The withdrawal is proving to be not just a human disaster but strategically dangerous both in terms of the likelihood of renewed terrorism and the undermining of what stability there remains in Pakistan. It is further proof that just because there is bipartisan support for a policy, as there was here, in that the Biden administration implemented the misguided accord with the Taliban negotiated by the Trump administration, it doesn’t mean the policy is a good one.
And Some Rare Good News to End On
Last, I want to end on an uncharacteristically positive note. President Biden is hosting at Camp David the leaders of Japan and South Korea. For years, our two most important allies in the Indo-Pacific were not even on speaking terms, hampering efforts to deter and if necessary respond to Chinese and North Korean aggression. This meeting, however, sends a powerful message to China that the United States and its regional allies are working together on behalf of shared interests, interests that include peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. It sends as well a strong message to North Korea, as the three countries will establish a leaders-level hotline, hold annual military exercises, and share intelligence. The small gathering is a success for U.S. diplomacy, as Washington helped bring the two countries together and overcome what once seemed to be intractable historical issues dating back to Japan’s colonization of Korea.
All of which is to say that this week’s newsletter may be titled Groundhog Day, highlighting some stories that repeat themselves, but it ends on a development that represents something both different and welcome. It is the geopolitical equivalent of ending a tough round of golf with a birdie on the 18th hole.
Speaking of golf, which I did on Morning Joe yesterday, I will confess that the summer has not gone as hoped. My handicap is where it was six weeks ago, at 13. My goal of getting into single digits remains a goal. The only thing that is consistent is my inconsistency. The good news is that there are still 17 days until Labor Day. So all is not lost. I promise updates (in great detail if the news turns out to be positive, in brief if not) in coming newsletters.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Thursday, August 17: MSNBC Morning Joe on China and the Camp David trilateral meeting with Japan & South Korea (begins at 45:08; audio-only)
Thursday, August 17: We The People Podcast from the National Constitution Center on Civic Virtue and Citizenship (audio only)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.