Hot Off the Press (July 21, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. I hope you enjoyed (but not too much) your week off from this newsletter and that your summer is off to a good start. It is already 25% over, so don’t put off much longer what you want to accomplish.
It’s Hot
Let’s start with the heat. We seem to set temperature records every day, week, month, and year. Things are heating up, or as they say in the UK, hotting up. The extreme weather events are not limited to the heat though, as we are seeing massive amounts of rain and floods in areas never before known for such things, most recently in the American northeast. All this comes on top of fires and droughts elsewhere.
A few thoughts. First, no one should see climate change as simply a future problem. Yes, it will get worse, but it is already here. Now. And it is plenty bad.
Second, I would appeal to television news executives devoting significant time to covering the latest weather crisis to set aside some of that time to note what is causing these events. These are not acts of God. Nor are they a result of chance. They are instead the result of climate change mostly brought about by human activity. Connecting dots, educating viewers and listeners, is an obligation. Only if this is done is there a chance we will see growing public support for needed and overdue policy.
Third, no matter what changes come in the way of policy, a good deal of climate change is already baked into the cake. Reversal or climate cooling is not a near-term option. All of which means we need to get serious about adaptation, about making it easier to live with the effects of climate change. This involves such things as updating building codes and devoting a greater share of infrastructure investment for the climate we have and will have rather than the one we had. Adaptation is not an alternative to mitigation but an essential complement.
Fourth, climate change is one of many good reasons this country needs to rethink its growing opposition to trade pacts. Trade accords could be used to incentivize countries to adopt responsible climate policies (for example, a rapid phase out of coal-fired power plants) if significant tariffs were placed on goods manufactured with that form of energy. Progressively lower tariffs could be imposed on goods made with oil and natural gas. Those companies using renewables or nuclear energy could avoid such tariffs altogether.
Tariffs could also be used to penalize those countries not doing what they could and should to limit methane release. There could be some limited exemptions for poorer countries, although the goal should be to incentivize them to choose a development path increasingly based on green technologies, something that would require such technologies being made widely available and affordable, most likely through the provision of financing (either directly or through the World Bank) on generous terms.
Fifth, I see U.S. climate envoy John Kerry has been in China speaking with his counterpart there. I also see that Xi Jinping (who did not meet with Kerry) has stated that China will not accelerate its pace on reaching responsible climate goals because of foreign, i.e., U.S. pressure. Let me suggest that Kerry and the Biden administration have it wrong here. Too much of the U.S. approach has been to implore China to cooperate, leading Beijing to conclude that it can link progress on climate to U.S. concessions on matters it cares about, such as trade and investment. But what will move the needle on climate change is not U.S.-Chinese cooperation but better Chinese performance, beginning with a shift away from coal-fired power plants within China. As noted above, if the United States had been smart enough to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (or TPP, now known as the CPTPP) we could have used this trade accord as leverage with China. It is not too late to reconsider.
No No Labels
As for Home, when it comes to domestic politics, there is no shortage of subjects to comment on. Donald Trump remains the odds-on favorite to be the Republican nominee for president. It will be revealing to see if new indictments tied to his conduct surrounding January 6 and expected any day now changes this. So far, though, Trump’s support qualifies as what economists term “inelastic,” i.e., impervious to external developments. Prospects of a second Trump term should be a source of profound concern, as his plans (as revealed in the New York Times) for expanding executive power are fundamentally at odds with Madison’s notion of checks and balances and are arguably incompatible with American democracy.
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden remains the presumptive nominee. But the fact that someone as unhinged as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can do as well as he is doing in the polls should be taken as something of a warning sign by Democrats and the Biden camp. There is nothing the incumbent can do to make himself any younger, but he can do a much better job at articulating a narrative of what he has accomplished at home and abroad.
I am concerned that efforts to put forward another alternative under the No Labels banner is gaining some momentum. Going ahead would constitute an error of the first order. History strongly suggests that third party candidates do not win but they do tilt the election outcome toward one or the other major party candidate. As Biden is the incumbent and near certain to be the more moderate of the major party candidates, a third-party candidate is sure to help the Republicans. If that candidate were to be Donald Trump, it would be truly irresponsible to do so.
Don’t get me wrong here. I can understand why public enthusiasm for either major party or their current frontrunners might be finite. The Republican Party has strayed a long ways from its conservative self; it is now far more radical and populist. And the Democratic Party has in many realms moved to the left. If neither of these trends can be reversed, a third party may well make sense. But as my mother used to say, there is a time and a place for everything, and this is not the time for introducing a third party when doing so could help produce an electoral outcome that would pose a significant threat to American democracy.
This is not to argue that No Labels ought to close up shop. But it should limit itself to advocating for intelligent positions on matters of policy (such as immigration) and political reform (such as on how congressional districts ought to be drawn or on the ability of elected officials to own stocks). The organization could then link its endorsement to the major party candidate most willing to embrace its agenda.
Ascending the Vilnius Summit
On the Away front, last week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius went well, for which the Biden administrations deserves praise. Sweden will become NATO’s 32nd member. Erdogan, possibly for economic reasons, possibly because he has reassessed his bet on Putin, seems to have made something of a pivot to reduce Turkey’s distance from the rest of the West.
As for Ukraine, I’d argue the summit and the Biden administration got it mostly right. There is a commitment to provide long-term assistance but to hold off NATO membership, which would be neither desirable nor feasible under current circumstances. I wrote about this in my latest for Project Syndicate. The only thing I’d add is that President Zelensky did not help his cause by his public display of unhappiness, which was seen by some as showing a lack of appreciation for all the help Ukraine is getting.
More broadly, there is evidence Ukraine’s counter-offensive is proceeding slowly, mostly the result of Russian forces being dug in and their extensive use of mines. Ukraine has once again attacked the Kerch Bridge, complicating Russia’s ability to supply its troops in Crimea, but the strike is unlikely to have a major effect on the war’s trajectory. Russia, presumably in an effort to increase revenues from its own agricultural exports and, in the process, offset some of the effects of sanctions, has effectively ended the Black Sea grain deal that allowed Ukraine’s grain to reach the world, something that will add to Ukraine’s economic woes as well as global inflation and food shortages. To this I would add that diplomatic prospects for ending the war (now 17 months old) remain poor, as Ukraine is intent on trying to liberate lands occupied by Russia and Russia is intent on trying to wait out the West.
Demographic Destiny
One other thing worth noting. In case you missed it, I suggest you spend a few minutes online with the extraordinary New York Times look at the world’s demographic trajectory. Like supertankers, demographic trends do not turn on a dime, so you come away with an appreciation of the difficult challenges many countries will face as a result of their shrinking and aging populations—and Africa’s very different but no less difficult challenge of providing education and services and jobs for its fast-growing young population.
G&T
We will start with G, or golf. Rory McIlroy won the Scottish Open, which made him one of the favorites (along with John Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Cam Smith) for this weekend’s Open Championship, the last of the four majors to be played this and every year. (It used to be called the British Open. Somewhere along the way it became just the Open Championship or simply the Open. Exactly why or when I don’t know as I clearly didn’t get the email.)
Whatever, the Open is being played this year at Royal Liverpool, in the city usually associated with that popular band that appeared on The Ed Sullivan Show 59 years ago and took this country by storm. The bunkers, i.e., sand traps, are something else. Whoever can avoid them and stay in the fairways has a good chance of hoisting the Claret Jug on Sunday.
Now T, as in tennis. It was an epic week. An unseeded Czech player, Markéta Vondroušová, won the women’s championship at Wimbledon. The next day Carlos Alcaraz won the men's singles title by defeating Novak Djokovic in a five set, near five-hour match for the ages. One game in the third set lasted close to 27 minutes, almost as long as the entire first set, which was dominated by Djokovic. You don’t have to be a tennis player or even a serious fan to admire the artistry and range of this 20-year-old phenom out of Spain. The good news is there is every reason to believe we will have the pleasure of watching him play for years or even decades to come.
As always, some links to click on. Please share your reactions, both to what is there and what else you’d like covered. And feel free to forward Home & Away to others.
Richard Haass in the news
Tuesday, July 11: MSNBC Morning Joe on the indictment of Gal Luft.
Wednesday, July 12: NPR Morning Edition on the war in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the future of international relations.
Thursday, July 17: MSNBC Morning Joe on Trump’s comments on Taiwan. WNYC The Brian Lehrer Show on The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens and American democracy.
Articles:
Ascending the Vilnius Summit (Project Syndicate)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.