LIV and Let Live (May 26, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. The big story in both domains is the unfolding debt ceiling drama. There is pressure to get this done by early June, when the United States will likely stop being able to pay all it owes its creditors, but the gap between the two sides remains substantial. Actually, saying “two sides” doesn’t quite capture things, as one of the reasons reaching agreement is proving so elusive is that both sides (Republicans in particular) are negotiating with themselves as well as with the other party.
Whatever the dynamics, no one should underestimate the stakes. As Marshall McLuhan once said, the whole world is watching, which comes as no surprise given the importance of the U.S. economy and the dollar to the world. Default would also have a broader impact. I found it instructive that the U.S. military’s six service heads, aka the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaking at a CFR event this past Monday, said default would undermine U.S. credibility, leadership, and military readiness.
Some have suggested the president short circuit the whole process by invoking the 14th amendment. As a refresher, the 14th amendment states among other things that “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”
Whether and how this would apply to the current impasse is far from obvious. Attempting to cite it as a rationale for not requiring a vote to raise the debt ceiling would also be challenged in the courts. It is unrealistic that this process could play out fast enough to resolve matters.
What stirred up twitter, though, is when I suggested that even trying this path would be an error as it would bypass the political process, setting a precedent Republicans would surely exploit if and when they are again in a position to do so. Don’t get me wrong. The need to raise the debt ceiling is an absurdity, as it reflects past spending and taxation decisions already agreed to by Congress. But I get nervous when those in the majority sidestep the minority. I know the Republicans did just that on recent Supreme Court appointments, but it is destructive to our democracy all the same. What I would like President Biden to do if it looks like no deal can be reached is deliver a primetime address to the nation and explain to the American people his plan for debt reduction and why what the Republicans are doing would push us into recession, drive interest rates even higher, destroy a significant portion of their retirement savings, and help China and Russia by weakening our standing in the world.
In part because of the focus on this and Ukraine and the G7, Israel’s 75th birthday passed without a great deal of notice. I decided to devote my monthly Project Syndicate column to it though.
Think about it: For much of its history, the greatest threat to Israel was posed by the armies and air forces of neighboring states. Today, however, Israel finds itself at peace with several of those countries. But by no means is it free of serious threats to its future well-being. What has changed, though, is that the threats now come mostly from within. Yes, Israel has to concern itself with Iran and its proxies in Syria and Lebanon, but what will most affect Israel’s future is Israel’s future.
Israel is approaching fundamental choices. If it wants to remain a democratic state, it cannot forever rule over five million Palestinians and deny them citizenship and the rights that go with it. But if it wants to remain a Jewish state, it cannot rule over a country that adds five million Palestinians to its existing population of two million Israeli Arabs. Something has to give.
Adding to the pressure is the fast-growing ultra-orthodox population and the growing split between it and those Israelis favoring a more secular society. Together, the Palestinian issue and Israel’s growing embrace of the ultra-orthodox community’s social and political preferences are introducing frictions into its relationship with both the United States and American Jewry. What cannot be assumed is that their traditional support will be as forthcoming if Israel comes to be viewed as undemocratic and embracing religious extremism.
This week’s Home & Away would not be complete without a mention of Henry Kissinger, who turns 100 on May 27. As befits someone that age, Henry has lived several lives. He was born in Germany, left for the United States in 1938, went to high school, entered the Army and served with distinction in Germany, earned undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard, where he then joined the faculty.
Kissinger’s publications and a stint at the Council on Foreign Relations dramatically increased his profile. He spent eight years at the highest level in the Nixon and Ford administrations, where he was national security advisor and secretary of state, and for two years the only individual to serve simultaneously as both. Word is that the interagency process never ran so smoothly.
I am well aware that there are many who are critical of Kissinger for policies associated with Vietnam, Cambodia, Chile, and what was then East Pakistan and is now Bangladesh. My intent is not to engage these debates here. What I would say, though, is that Kissinger’s accomplishments were many and large. I would include the opening to China, detente and nuclear arms control pacts with the Soviet Union, the negotiations that brought the Vietnam War to a close, and the diplomacy that helped end the 1973 Middle East conflict and paved the way to the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. It is an extraordinary set of achievements by any measure.
And then there are the last nearly fifty years since Kissinger left government. He has managed to stay relevant and influential both through his books, articles, interviews, and private meetings with the most senior leaders and officials here and around the world. As I note in the linked tribute to him on the CFR website, he is the preeminent scholar-practitioner of our age.
I want to end this week’s newsletter with golf. Last weekend saw the PGA Championship played at Oak Hill, an amazing course near Rochester, New York. Two great story lines emerged. The first was Michael Block, the teaching pro at a modest municipal course in Mission Viejo, California. Anyone can play there for just under $100 a round; it is or at least was possible to get a 45-minute lesson with Block for $125.
Block was one of twenty (out of some 30,000) PGA professionals who earned the right to play in this year’s championship. He was the only one of the twenty to play well enough to survive the cut after the first two rounds. He ended up tied for 15th at one over par. The icing on the cake was his ace on the 15th hole of the final round. He was paired with Rory McIlroy, who for one of the few times in his career found himself all but ignored by the gallery. McIlroy showed great class, as did Block, who handled his sudden fame with stunning modesty and grace.
The second story line (somewhat lost amidst all the excitement) was the victory by Brooks Koepka. This was his third PGA title and his fifth major win. But what made it especially significant was that Koepka should have won the Masters a few months ago but melted down in the final round. That he was able to put himself back together mentally and emotionally and do at Oak Hill what he couldn’t do at Augusta—sustain a lead -- was impressive.
But it was also complicating. Some time ago Koepka defected to the Saudi-backed LIV tour, and this was the first time someone who plays on that tour won a major tournament. It makes it less likely the LIV tour will fail or just fade away. The immediate question, though, is whether Koepka gets a spot on the U.S. team that will play in Italy this fall for the Ryder Cup. He should. As is made clear in Obligation #10 of The Bill of Obligations, country comes before party or person—or, for that matter, a golf tour.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Friday, May 19: MSNBC Morning Joe on the G7 summit (begins at 23:01). BBC News on Ukraine and the G7.
Saturday, May 20: SiriusXM The Perri Peltz Show on The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens. Preview the conversation, or listen to the full show (full show requires a SiriusXM subscription).
Monday, May 22: MSNBC Morning Joe on Russian sanctions list. Presider for CFR’s Robert B. McKeon Endowed Series on Military Strategy and Leadership.
Wednesday, May 24: Presider for CFR’s Kenneth A. Moskow Memorial Lecture: A Conversation With Liz Sherwood-Randall.
Articles:
Project Syndicate column on Israel at 75.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.