Midwest & Middle East (August 9, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away, and to what promises to be a relatively short edition. Better you spend your time enjoying the last few days of what has been a truly compelling Olympics and the last few weeks of summer.
Walz not Waltz
The big news has been the choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as the Vice President’s pick to be the next vice president. I will admit to having hoped it would be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, but it might be he is more suited for the role of chief executive than a number two. Plus, now that he doesn’t have to campaign nationally, he can focus his efforts entirely on turning out the vote in Pennsylvania.
In any event, it is impossible not to like Tim Walz, be it his persona or his biography. This is all my way of saying that Sam Haass, the CEO of the political consulting firm Slingshot Strategies and the Haass you should be listening to when it comes to matters such as this, may have been right in arguing Walz was the strongest choice for vice president. Sam, consider this public confession from your old man an early birthday present.
I am skeptical that Republican efforts to paint the Democratic ticket as radicals or Communists will gain much traction. The bigger challenge for Harris and Walz will be to persuade swing state voters to support them given that popular concerns over inflation and immigration, issues where Trump polls considerably stronger than they do, are priorities.
But let me say one other thing. It is good to see the Democrats campaigning by embracing the politics of optimism, of what is right with this country. The Republicans are in a very different place. Populism at its core is angry and fueled by resentment, and the not-so-subtle message of MAGA is that this country is no longer great. Maybe the Democrats can somehow find a way to persuade Lee Greenwood to sing at a rally or two.
Waiting for Iran
As for Away, there has yet to be an Iranian reaction to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in a government guest house in Tehran. I still think a response of some sort to be all but inevitable. But what seems to be up for consideration is the nature and scale of any Iranian response, as a good many governments, including Russia’s, are making the case for restraint to avoid a scenario in which Israel feels compelled to retaliate decisively to the retaliation, leaving Iran and the region worse off as a result. An augmented U.S. military presence in the region may also be affecting Iranian calculations.
Israel has already communicated that the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah will suffer should it attack Israel. Unclear is whether Israel would be prepared to attack Iran directly—go to the source in language used by then Secretary of State Al Haig some forty years ago—if Hezbollah caused multiple Israeli casualties. Also unclear is how Israel would respond against Iran if it attacked Israel directly, as it did in April.
In the meantime, Hamas has chosen Yahya Sinwar to replace Haniyeh as the group’s new political leader. If nothing else, it puts to rest any notion that there is a political Hamas as opposed to a military Hamas. Even though the Biden administration, Egypt, and Qatar are now pushing for final negotiations over a hostage and ceasefire deal to take place next week, Sinwar’s new role will probably make reaching an agreement more difficult given that Sinwar will now head negotiations in Haniyeh’s place. He has consistently demonstrated a desire to prolong the war on the assumption a longer war was more to Hamas’s advantage than Israel’s. If a negotiated end to hostilities continues to prove elusive, Israel would be wise to consider just declaring the end to major military operations in Gaza. Doing so would be less costly than it seems—Israel cannot eliminate Hamas no matter what force it employs—and it would increase pressure on Sinwar to let the hostages go.
A calmer Gaza would also ease some of the pressure on Israel’s stretched military, allowing it to focus on other fronts. None of this would bring stability to Gaza—that would require Israel changing course and adopting a comprehensive strategy that includes a political component designed to show Palestinians there is an alternative path that promises a better political and economic future than Hamas ever could—but it would be a start.
Surprise
One other international item merits mention. Ukraine has launched an incursion into Kursk, a region several hundred miles south of Moscow. The attack seems to have caught the Russians by surprise. Ideally, it will force Russia to shift some of its resources from offense to defense. Better yet, by bringing the cost of the war home to Russia, the Ukrainian attack (if coupled with a clear U.S. commitment to continue providing Ukraine with arms) could lead Putin to question his premise that a long war serves his interest. Were this to happen, the stage would have been set for negotiations.
Think I’ll leave it there. Have a good weekend.
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Richard Haass in the news
Thursday, August 8: Squawk Box
Article
What the US Should do on Iran-Israel — and What it Should Not (Financial Times)