Musk, Mitt, & More (September 15, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. It is 9/15, only four days after 9/11. It is impossible to be in New York and not be struck by the enormity of what took place that day twenty-two years ago, from the loss of life to the heroism. But let me add a few additional thoughts to the mix.
One is personal. At the time I was the head of the policy planning staff for the State Department. But I was not in Washington. Instead, I was in Dublin wearing another hat, that of U.S. envoy to the Northern Ireland peace process. I was meeting with Bertie Aherne, the Irish Prime Minister, when word reached us of the first plane hitting the World Trade Center. We turned on the television and watched the second. Stunned, we took a few minutes to collect ourselves, and went out and did an impromptu press conference. It was a good moment to be with such a good friend of the United States.
With air traffic shut down, I couldn’t get back to the United States. So I continued with my schedule. It was odd and then some to be in Belfast, a city long associated with terrorism, that evening and the next day. But my mission got some unexpected help from what had just happened as I could tell those I met with, including Gerry Adams and Martin McGuiness, that the days of Americans looking the other way at IRA terrorism were over. The message was received, and the process of moving away from political violence and giving up arms gained momentum. Sometimes, good can come from bad.
But bad can also come from bad. 9/11 set in motion an era of U.S. foreign policy no one predicted. For the next two decades the lodestar of our national security was terrorism and how to counter it. For reasons both justifiable and not, it led us into two wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Looking back, it all seems to have been an unimaginably costly detour, one that I expect will leave future historians scratching their heads as to why and how the United States so lost its way in the world. What we are seeing today is the belated but much-needed rebalancing of U.S. foreign policy, away from the greater Middle East and efforts to transform countries not easily transformed to a much greater emphasis on Europe and the Asia-Pacific and the challenge of managing great power rivalries.
A Modern Day Icarus
This past week was also about Elon Musk, as Walter Isaacson’s long-anticipated biography appeared on shelves. I have not yet had the chance to read the book although feel I almost have given all I have read about it. I was at a book party this week where Walter did an elegant job summing up the book, laying out how it began as a study of a brilliant engineer but along the way had to take on the reality that Musk is as flawed as he is brilliant.
It is hard not to be struck by Musk’s decision not to allow Ukraine to access Starlink to target Russian ships docked in Crimea. Whatever you think of his decision, and I don’t think much of it, what is truly extraordinary is that he got to make it. That he is in a position to implement his own foreign policy with such consequences is dangerous.
Anyone doubting this need only read what Musk had to say about China and Taiwan. Musk parroted the PRC’s position, stating “From their standpoint, you know, maybe it’s analogous to like Hawaii or something like that, like an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China mostly because … the US Pacific Fleet has stopped any sort of reunification effort by force.”
Does anyone seriously think that Musk, whose Tesla operation heavily depends on China, would not side with China if it were to attack Taiwan? The U.S. government had better work overtime on promoting the emergence of other firms in the realm of space launch and satellites central to the internet. Where is industrial planning when we need it?
Romney’s Warning
I was sad to see Mitt Romney’s announcement that he will not seek reelection in 2024. Mitt is a good man and a reminder of when Republicans were conservative, principled, and decent rather than radical, outrageous, and uncivil.
The excerpt in the Atlantic from McKay Coppins’s forthcoming biography of Romney is nothing less than stunning. “A very large portion of my party really doesn’t believe in the Constitution,” Mitt is quoted as saying. Then there is the anecdote that days before January 6 he was warned by Angus King (who had heard it from a DoD official) of planned armed attacks on the Capitol. Romney was a likely target, but he never heard back from Mitch McConnell when he told him. Romney rightly accuses Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz of putting politics above the interests of liberal democracy and the Constitution.
Romney goes on to opine that America’s experiment in self-rule “is fighting against human nature…This is a very fragile thing. Authoritarianism is like a gargoyle lurking over the cathedral, ready to pounce.” And for those who think people like me are exaggerating when they warn of the potential for political violence in this country, Romney recounts several senators not voting for Trump’s impeachment not because of the facts but out of fear for their personal safety and that of their families.
The New Axis of Evil
There were several pieces of important international news this week. There was the trip by train of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Russia. (His armored train might be one of the few trains out there that moves slower than Amtrak, but I digress.) The trip highlights the real-world reality of how hard it is and will be to isolate Russia, to deny it access to arms and ammunition, or to deny it markets for its oil and gas. Reports that Russian missile production now exceeds prewar levels is further evidence of this. All this suggests that Russia might be able to hold onto much of the territory it controls even if Ukraine were to receive more advanced weaponry from the United States and the West. Which in turn suggests that more thought needs to be focused on defining our long-term strategy for Ukraine and the war and Russia other than more of the same.
The Gee Whiz G20
The G20 has come and gone, and as was anticipated here, it fulfilled its low expectations. Even though neither Xi Jinping nor Vladimir Putin made it to Delhi, the language on Ukraine in the document issued at the end of the gathering was watered down from the year before. What this reflected was the host country India (or Bharat, for those who read this newsletter last week) and quite a few others being unwilling to come down hard against Russia or China. The final communique was also something of a disappointment on climate change. Still, it was good for America’s posture in the region that President Biden attended and went on to Vietnam, even if it did not do much for the President’s political fortunes at home.
Wither Biden?
Speaking of the president’s political fortunes, they are not looking good. His worrisome performance at the end of his press conference in Vietnam reinforced legitimate concerns as to his age and health; it is not just that Biden is 80, but he is an old 80. There is the Hunter Biden saga, which will only intensify given yesterday’s indictment. Also the border. Plus Cornell West. And an economic situation that for many Americans is getting worse. It is hard to find a Democrat who in private will not say that Biden should not stand for a second term as he might lose to Trump and would almost certainly lose to someone like Nikki Haley.
To state this (as David Ignatius did in his column this week) is not to attack Biden but to argue that even though he is a good man who has been a good president there is a strong case that the best thing he could do for this country and American democracy would be to not seek a second term. Biden should not want to repeat the error of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and stay too long and have his legacy come to be associated with something he opposed his entire career.
As you might expect, there is a “But” here. Biden is reportedly ahead in the half dozen battleground states that will likely decide the Electoral College outcome. Then there is the reality that if he takes himself out it could well trigger something of a civil war among Democrats. In some ways it might already be too late for a viable alternative to emerge who could unify the party. All of which is to say the president and Democrats and all Americans who more than anything else want to avoid a second Trump term have a dilemma on their hands.
Some Personal News
I began this week’s newsletter with the personal, so I will end in the same vein. I am good at some things I’d like to think, but one of them isn’t retirement. (Another seems to be golf.) Which is to say my portfolio expanded this week when it was announced that I am joining Centerview Partners, an international investment banking advisory practice, as senior counselor. I will be working out of their New York City office. The good news (in addition to the fact I will be part of a firm filled with good people good at what they do) is that it will allow me to continue (in my capacity as President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations) to do the other things that are of real importance to me, including writing books and articles on foreign policy and the state of American democracy, speaking on the same matters, and lest I forget, writing this newsletter.
Last, tonight is the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year. May it be a good and sweet and healthy year for you all and for your families and friends. And don’t forget to start dating your checks 5784.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Monday, September 11: MSNBC Morning Joe on G20 summit & China (begins at 34:22; audio-only).
Tuesday, September 12: MSNBC Andrea Mitchell Reports on Kim Jong Un meeting with Putin & Iran prisoner exchange deal.
Podcasts
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.