Welcome to Home & Away. I know I promised I would do my best not to produce a newsletter during the holidays, but events intervened (as they tend to do). I will do my best to keep it short.
So incompetent. There are no more words to describe him, his failing administration, and the damage being done. This situation makes the case for education, expertise, and courage.
I read posts like this one from a smart, articulate guy who has been involved in government, dipolomacy, and foreign affairs at a high level for years, decades, and am amazed at the ignorance of the Middle East.
Here's a good story about the Saudi Petroline or Abqaiq–Yanbu Pipeline. I have not seen this reported anywhere. It suggests the solution to dealing with the Strait of Hormuz.
During the Iran v Iraq War in the early 1980s (war lasted for 8 years, 1980 - 88), there was a problem getting Saudi crude oil past --- wait for it --- the Strait of Hormuz because of the hostilities. Sound familar?
Do you recall the Tanker War Phase of hostilities that lasted from 1984 - 88? Both sides were hitting tankers.
The Saudis in 1981 funded the $1.6B development of a 48" east-west oil pipeline from Abqaiq to Yanbu. That's from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Yanbu is both a port and a gigantic refining location.
Subsequently, the Saudis built an adjacent 56" east-west oil pipeline.
That pipeline was then sistered with a 24/28/30" NGL (natural gas liquids, the stuff separated from crude that is very highly prized) also terminating in Yanbu.
So, there are three lines. Big lines. the NGL line is smaller because the natural gas liquids are very light and there was not much of them.
The logistics are very simple -- the pipeline can flow 7MM bbl/day at full capacity. It has never run at full capacity until -- wait for it -- last month. The Saudis divereted all their Persian gulf exports to Yanbu.
These lines have been there since the 1980s and the NGL line can be converted to crude oil.
There are a dozen pumping stations along the route and when all pipelines are flowing full, they can move 7MM bbl/day of crude from the Persian Gulf area to the Red Sea area.
The Saudis have never run them at capacity, but as of about ten days ago, the NGL line is now moving crude oil and the combined through put of the lines is 7MM bbl/day whilst the Saudi production is currently 8MM bbl/day.
[There are some issues with the loading capabilities of Yanbu which are being addressed. They can only load 5MM bbl/day currently, but it is easily fixable. Remember some of the crude goes to Yanbu refineries to create refined product.]
For those watching the markets, the Saudis at the initiation of hostilities reduced their production by 2 - 2.5MM bbl/day which is one of the reasons why the price of crude has risen. Nobody seems to know that fact. Check it out.
So, the answer, the long term answer, is to transport crude oil/NGL in pipelines out of the region to locations that are not subject to interference from shitheads like the Iranians.
This is the easiest part of the world -- other than the desert terrain, dunes, lava fields, and the rugged Hijaz Mountains -- in which to build a pipeline.
A pipeline from the Saudi area to Israel would solve the problem nicely. Could be built in a couple of years tops.
The UAE also has an existing pipeline that goes around the Strait of Hormuz and there is an abandoned 48" Iraqi pipeline that terminates close to Yanbu.
Bottom line is that the Strait of Hormuz problem is highly fixable, the Saudis took care of themselves a long, long, long time ago.
The real solution is to eliminate the Iranian regime. God bless us all.
[I worked for Mobil in the 1970s so I knew a lot of this stuff in real time, but it's all out there.]
I have no idea why Trump is tolerated. Unexplainable events, legal or illegal there should be no debate. The word that fits for me is a morbid liar, a maniac. Trust is a combination of actions; sincerity, reliability, competency. Unacceptable diplomacy, friends with Putin/Russia? What's that about? Rule of law not even a guile line. Rule of law seem nothing more than suggestions.
Unfortunately, after the April 1 speech by Trump, I fear that his obvious boredom with the war he started will give Netanyahu and Hegseth the green light to escalate in both theaters. Hegseth will likely unleash the land invasion this week under the lie that it will be all over in a week or two.
Perhaps we need to rename this excursion from Epic Fury, to what it has become Epic Failure. The war/excursion is winding down as thousands of ground forces and paratroopers enter the theater (AKA Theater of War), in Iran there is nobody to fight because we killed all their leaders but they need to surrender and give up, from their position of strength, as they have locked down the Straits of Hormuz to all but who Iran wants to pass. Are we sending mixed signals?
We are at the point in the Donald’s life where he is facing physical geriatric failure, mental cognitive failure, legal failures as tariffs and ballrooms and Epstein files form an overwhelming wave of failures, as he fires his personal attorney, Pamela Jo Bondi. I know it sounds absolutely bonkers but Trump and Hegseth feel it is more important to diminish and demean black and women officers deserving of promotion, recommended by their superiors, than to have the best leadership in charge of the military during this time of excursion, when leadership skills, experience and knowledge are most critically needed. The top generals who are standing up to Hegseth and Trump’s bigotry are being forced to resign, leaving a white national Christian alcoholic and a demented cognitively impaired racist to manage our excursion with Iran.
Trump's prediction that the Strait of Hormuz will open up "naturally", sounded very reminiscent of what he said about Covid. It will disappear naturally.
We can argue all we want about the desirability or legitimacy of the regime in Iran (and the one in the US for that matter), it exists and after the decades since their Revolution and the actions of Israel vis-a-vis their neighbors, is it any wonder that they want to destroy Israel. Yes it's not that simple...and yet it is. Be that as it may, Iran has little reason to accept any terms offer ed by Trump, since he has a record of changing his mind and making new demands. I'm not sure that Iran can get what they want, it's pretty certain that the US, having already screwed the pooch, is not getting out of this without a ruined reputation and a bloody nose with nothing very good to show for it. Everyone loses, Iran most of all, no matter how this ends in the 'short' term. Long term...who can say, but I suspect that the US will wish it hadn't attacked them after a year or two.
Wander over to polymarket.com/iran and you will be surprised to see that the smart money is lining up behind the proposition that the Iranian regime falls before the end of 2026.
These negotiations everybody is talking about are not "settlement" talks, they are "surrender" talks, just like the Jap surrender at the end of WWII.
BTW, people constantly say you cannot contest a war by bombing, but Japan decided to pull the plug after they got nuked.
The US was looking at 1.5 - 2.0 MM casualties to invade and take the Home Islands. Bombed them into surrender. Just a fact.
Is 'smart' money betting on the US using nukes or the threat of, to force the Iranian regime to capitulate? Not that it couldn't happen, but it would be insane and akin to using million dollar interceptors to take out $20k drones. It would also make the US fully a pariah state. From what I understand, there are no negotiations as such, but rather attempts to negotiate to have negotiations. This is a difficult task, as the US, especially at the current moment, has proven that it doesn't negotiate in good faith. While the fall of the regime is always a possibility, I certainly wouldn't bet any of my money in it happening by the end of the year...unless nukes were used...which...in my opinion, would be an easy case of 'war crime'.
You wouldn't. But if ground forces are deployed and it goes badly...who can say what Trumpigula will do and if anyone has the sense to finally say that this is beyond the pale...this and not all of those other idiotic things he has unleashed on the country and world...🙄
I don't get the trepidation about committing ground forces.
Did you see something in the Iraq war that suggested the Iraqis had a credible army? I suspect the IRGC/Artesh are far worse than the Iraqis who fought them to a standstill when they clashed.
I do see the US using raids -- attacks with limited objectives of seizing or destroying a specific land objective -- Kharq Island stands out.
Those raiders in the America schema are the best of the best and they would slaughter the Iranians.
On a raid, the raiders choose the where, when, and who. The Iranians can only react and the US would have complete air dominance and local air support.
I would put even money we take Kharq Island within the next 3 weeks after an extensive campaign against the electric grid, electric generating capacity (particularly in the vicinity of nuclear facilities), and bridges.
BTW, tactical nukes are very much a defensive weapon.
"This is all baffling. Why relieve pressure and not get something for it? It echoes allowing Iran to sell $14 billion of oil condition-free last month… Not to mention easing Russian sanctions without getting Moscow to back off helping Iran or attacking Ukraine. Where is the art of the deal when we need it?"
Trump is insane like Caligula and Hitler, and our prisons are packed with criminals like them. People have known for decades about the foul deeds committed by Trump. The elephant in the room is the Americans who voted for him. This is becoming more and more like a Greek tragedy.
Your Grace Richard HAASS has many point in the right direction as usual, however, I disagree with the strait of Hormuz. The state of the deal is to help friends or Gulf states & punish Iran for not abiding nuclear regulations and enriching uranium above 20%!. The only way to have this deal of nuclear restriction is to Sanction all BRICS (who support Iran in their endeavor) by closing the Hormuz for Iranian oil & expanding and oil and gas infrastructure from Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait even Iraq to either Oman or Saudi Arabia, where energy can flow effortlessly to the rest of the World.
This is the best & strongest leverage the Collective WEST can have on Iran in terms of Sanctions & Control of thier oil exports to BRICS! Needless to say this punishes not only Iran but all of BRICS ECONOMICALLY; thus, it is also a leversge used for Human rights & Socio-economic infrastructure building in this country. Basically, in the long term, this means regime concessions to other political alternatives in Iran or democratisation of Iran. - Viktor HADJIEV, title: Magnus NUCLEUS for Purity of Thought :)
The readership swoons over the polemical critiques Richard publishes. Nothing confirms more than this last offering that the silk-stocking, erstwhile Republican cadre is so taken by TDS that they are unable to reason. Four Presidents declared that a theocratic Iran was a menace to the planet, none acted to curb it. This guy has taken up the gauntlet and the effete liberal element condemns actions taken clearly in the national interest!
Since Reagan, every President has called for "something to be done" about Iran.
Ronald Reagan (1981–1989)
George H. W. Bush (1989–1993)
Bill Clinton (1993–2001)
George W. Bush (2001–2009)
Barack Obama (2009–2017)
Donald Trump (2017–2021)
Joe Biden (2021–2025)
Republicans, Democrats -- and finally this Trump 2.0 guy who doesn't talk us to death does something.
Does it well.
Boom.
I much prefer putting together the pieces of a bombed and broken Iran than a bombed and broken Middle East/Europe/world that was nuked because nobody had the cojones to deny Iran its nuclear bomb ambitions.
The English language is devoid of any word, any positive word, that could be used to favorably describe that evil crowd in charge in Tehran.
I differ with Trump 2.0 on Ukraine, but he is absolutely right on the border, immigration, deporting illegals, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba.
The man is a doer. Politics today is 99% bullshitters and 1% doers. The US promised to relocate the US Embassy in Israel for 40 years and Trump 1.0 did it and nothing happened.
Another terrific analysis of this appalling Iran situation Trump has put us in. The more I think about it and with time passing and gas prices skyrocketing your idea of "Open for All or Closed to All" makes good sense. Too bad Trump's advisors don't bring to the table your experience and smarts. I am not confident this will end well or quickly.
Every action is tied to November, holding on to Congress meaning hold on to MAGA voters, he can’t appear to be weak and he needs rising stock prices, decreasing oil prices and the appearance of strength, all unlikely. T needs a horrific event to line up all Americans behind him. Perhaps a Mars alien attack 😫
I listened to Trump drone his way through his pre-pre-prepared remarks with as much enthusiasm as I expect he shows when forced to eat the vegetables served with his double cheeseburgers. I was especially distressed to hear his "... back to the Stone Ages" (Wait, there was more than one!?) remark. I remember his remark's point of reference, and Trump is clearly rewatching the wrong war movies (and those around him are not helping him or the rest of us.)
Completely disagree. I now believe Iran must have a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against foreign attack. And only 2 countries are interested in attacking Iran and have been in the last 40 years, the USA and Israel. For all practical purposes, this is not even an axis of evil; it's a singular point of evil where US and Israeli interests are fused and cannot be divided. They will go down together because Iran has been preparing for this since 1979, when the ISUS (Israel-USA) was forming. Iran has a strategy and has tactics, Israel has tactics but no strategy, and the USA has a pedophile as a president, which says everything anybody needs to know.
His phrase about the Straits opening up naturally brings to mind his comment about Covid just disappearing one day. Both boggle the mind.
So incompetent. There are no more words to describe him, his failing administration, and the damage being done. This situation makes the case for education, expertise, and courage.
When I heard the comment about the Strait, my mind recalled his COVID delusions as well.
I read posts like this one from a smart, articulate guy who has been involved in government, dipolomacy, and foreign affairs at a high level for years, decades, and am amazed at the ignorance of the Middle East.
Here's a good story about the Saudi Petroline or Abqaiq–Yanbu Pipeline. I have not seen this reported anywhere. It suggests the solution to dealing with the Strait of Hormuz.
During the Iran v Iraq War in the early 1980s (war lasted for 8 years, 1980 - 88), there was a problem getting Saudi crude oil past --- wait for it --- the Strait of Hormuz because of the hostilities. Sound familar?
Do you recall the Tanker War Phase of hostilities that lasted from 1984 - 88? Both sides were hitting tankers.
The Saudis in 1981 funded the $1.6B development of a 48" east-west oil pipeline from Abqaiq to Yanbu. That's from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Yanbu is both a port and a gigantic refining location.
Subsequently, the Saudis built an adjacent 56" east-west oil pipeline.
That pipeline was then sistered with a 24/28/30" NGL (natural gas liquids, the stuff separated from crude that is very highly prized) also terminating in Yanbu.
So, there are three lines. Big lines. the NGL line is smaller because the natural gas liquids are very light and there was not much of them.
The logistics are very simple -- the pipeline can flow 7MM bbl/day at full capacity. It has never run at full capacity until -- wait for it -- last month. The Saudis divereted all their Persian gulf exports to Yanbu.
These lines have been there since the 1980s and the NGL line can be converted to crude oil.
There are a dozen pumping stations along the route and when all pipelines are flowing full, they can move 7MM bbl/day of crude from the Persian Gulf area to the Red Sea area.
The Saudis have never run them at capacity, but as of about ten days ago, the NGL line is now moving crude oil and the combined through put of the lines is 7MM bbl/day whilst the Saudi production is currently 8MM bbl/day.
[There are some issues with the loading capabilities of Yanbu which are being addressed. They can only load 5MM bbl/day currently, but it is easily fixable. Remember some of the crude goes to Yanbu refineries to create refined product.]
For those watching the markets, the Saudis at the initiation of hostilities reduced their production by 2 - 2.5MM bbl/day which is one of the reasons why the price of crude has risen. Nobody seems to know that fact. Check it out.
So, the answer, the long term answer, is to transport crude oil/NGL in pipelines out of the region to locations that are not subject to interference from shitheads like the Iranians.
This is the easiest part of the world -- other than the desert terrain, dunes, lava fields, and the rugged Hijaz Mountains -- in which to build a pipeline.
A pipeline from the Saudi area to Israel would solve the problem nicely. Could be built in a couple of years tops.
The UAE also has an existing pipeline that goes around the Strait of Hormuz and there is an abandoned 48" Iraqi pipeline that terminates close to Yanbu.
Bottom line is that the Strait of Hormuz problem is highly fixable, the Saudis took care of themselves a long, long, long time ago.
The real solution is to eliminate the Iranian regime. God bless us all.
[I worked for Mobil in the 1970s so I knew a lot of this stuff in real time, but it's all out there.]
I have no idea why Trump is tolerated. Unexplainable events, legal or illegal there should be no debate. The word that fits for me is a morbid liar, a maniac. Trust is a combination of actions; sincerity, reliability, competency. Unacceptable diplomacy, friends with Putin/Russia? What's that about? Rule of law not even a guile line. Rule of law seem nothing more than suggestions.
Unfortunately, after the April 1 speech by Trump, I fear that his obvious boredom with the war he started will give Netanyahu and Hegseth the green light to escalate in both theaters. Hegseth will likely unleash the land invasion this week under the lie that it will be all over in a week or two.
Perhaps we need to rename this excursion from Epic Fury, to what it has become Epic Failure. The war/excursion is winding down as thousands of ground forces and paratroopers enter the theater (AKA Theater of War), in Iran there is nobody to fight because we killed all their leaders but they need to surrender and give up, from their position of strength, as they have locked down the Straits of Hormuz to all but who Iran wants to pass. Are we sending mixed signals?
We are at the point in the Donald’s life where he is facing physical geriatric failure, mental cognitive failure, legal failures as tariffs and ballrooms and Epstein files form an overwhelming wave of failures, as he fires his personal attorney, Pamela Jo Bondi. I know it sounds absolutely bonkers but Trump and Hegseth feel it is more important to diminish and demean black and women officers deserving of promotion, recommended by their superiors, than to have the best leadership in charge of the military during this time of excursion, when leadership skills, experience and knowledge are most critically needed. The top generals who are standing up to Hegseth and Trump’s bigotry are being forced to resign, leaving a white national Christian alcoholic and a demented cognitively impaired racist to manage our excursion with Iran.
What could go wrong?
Trump's prediction that the Strait of Hormuz will open up "naturally", sounded very reminiscent of what he said about Covid. It will disappear naturally.
We can argue all we want about the desirability or legitimacy of the regime in Iran (and the one in the US for that matter), it exists and after the decades since their Revolution and the actions of Israel vis-a-vis their neighbors, is it any wonder that they want to destroy Israel. Yes it's not that simple...and yet it is. Be that as it may, Iran has little reason to accept any terms offer ed by Trump, since he has a record of changing his mind and making new demands. I'm not sure that Iran can get what they want, it's pretty certain that the US, having already screwed the pooch, is not getting out of this without a ruined reputation and a bloody nose with nothing very good to show for it. Everyone loses, Iran most of all, no matter how this ends in the 'short' term. Long term...who can say, but I suspect that the US will wish it hadn't attacked them after a year or two.
Wander over to polymarket.com/iran and you will be surprised to see that the smart money is lining up behind the proposition that the Iranian regime falls before the end of 2026.
These negotiations everybody is talking about are not "settlement" talks, they are "surrender" talks, just like the Jap surrender at the end of WWII.
BTW, people constantly say you cannot contest a war by bombing, but Japan decided to pull the plug after they got nuked.
The US was looking at 1.5 - 2.0 MM casualties to invade and take the Home Islands. Bombed them into surrender. Just a fact.
Is 'smart' money betting on the US using nukes or the threat of, to force the Iranian regime to capitulate? Not that it couldn't happen, but it would be insane and akin to using million dollar interceptors to take out $20k drones. It would also make the US fully a pariah state. From what I understand, there are no negotiations as such, but rather attempts to negotiate to have negotiations. This is a difficult task, as the US, especially at the current moment, has proven that it doesn't negotiate in good faith. While the fall of the regime is always a possibility, I certainly wouldn't bet any of my money in it happening by the end of the year...unless nukes were used...which...in my opinion, would be an easy case of 'war crime'.
I haven’t heard any credible voices suggesting the use of nukes.
The U.S. has 300,000 precision guided bombs in the inventory. They don’t need them, nukes.
Iran is just about done.
You wouldn't. But if ground forces are deployed and it goes badly...who can say what Trumpigula will do and if anyone has the sense to finally say that this is beyond the pale...this and not all of those other idiotic things he has unleashed on the country and world...🙄
I don't get the trepidation about committing ground forces.
Did you see something in the Iraq war that suggested the Iraqis had a credible army? I suspect the IRGC/Artesh are far worse than the Iraqis who fought them to a standstill when they clashed.
I do see the US using raids -- attacks with limited objectives of seizing or destroying a specific land objective -- Kharq Island stands out.
Those raiders in the America schema are the best of the best and they would slaughter the Iranians.
On a raid, the raiders choose the where, when, and who. The Iranians can only react and the US would have complete air dominance and local air support.
I would put even money we take Kharq Island within the next 3 weeks after an extensive campaign against the electric grid, electric generating capacity (particularly in the vicinity of nuclear facilities), and bridges.
BTW, tactical nukes are very much a defensive weapon.
"This is all baffling. Why relieve pressure and not get something for it? It echoes allowing Iran to sell $14 billion of oil condition-free last month… Not to mention easing Russian sanctions without getting Moscow to back off helping Iran or attacking Ukraine. Where is the art of the deal when we need it?"
So true.
Trump is insane like Caligula and Hitler, and our prisons are packed with criminals like them. People have known for decades about the foul deeds committed by Trump. The elephant in the room is the Americans who voted for him. This is becoming more and more like a Greek tragedy.
Your Grace Richard HAASS has many point in the right direction as usual, however, I disagree with the strait of Hormuz. The state of the deal is to help friends or Gulf states & punish Iran for not abiding nuclear regulations and enriching uranium above 20%!. The only way to have this deal of nuclear restriction is to Sanction all BRICS (who support Iran in their endeavor) by closing the Hormuz for Iranian oil & expanding and oil and gas infrastructure from Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait even Iraq to either Oman or Saudi Arabia, where energy can flow effortlessly to the rest of the World.
This is the best & strongest leverage the Collective WEST can have on Iran in terms of Sanctions & Control of thier oil exports to BRICS! Needless to say this punishes not only Iran but all of BRICS ECONOMICALLY; thus, it is also a leversge used for Human rights & Socio-economic infrastructure building in this country. Basically, in the long term, this means regime concessions to other political alternatives in Iran or democratisation of Iran. - Viktor HADJIEV, title: Magnus NUCLEUS for Purity of Thought :)
The readership swoons over the polemical critiques Richard publishes. Nothing confirms more than this last offering that the silk-stocking, erstwhile Republican cadre is so taken by TDS that they are unable to reason. Four Presidents declared that a theocratic Iran was a menace to the planet, none acted to curb it. This guy has taken up the gauntlet and the effete liberal element condemns actions taken clearly in the national interest!
I agree more with you than you do with yourself.
Since Reagan, every President has called for "something to be done" about Iran.
Ronald Reagan (1981–1989)
George H. W. Bush (1989–1993)
Bill Clinton (1993–2001)
George W. Bush (2001–2009)
Barack Obama (2009–2017)
Donald Trump (2017–2021)
Joe Biden (2021–2025)
Republicans, Democrats -- and finally this Trump 2.0 guy who doesn't talk us to death does something.
Does it well.
Boom.
I much prefer putting together the pieces of a bombed and broken Iran than a bombed and broken Middle East/Europe/world that was nuked because nobody had the cojones to deny Iran its nuclear bomb ambitions.
The English language is devoid of any word, any positive word, that could be used to favorably describe that evil crowd in charge in Tehran.
I differ with Trump 2.0 on Ukraine, but he is absolutely right on the border, immigration, deporting illegals, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba.
The man is a doer. Politics today is 99% bullshitters and 1% doers. The US promised to relocate the US Embassy in Israel for 40 years and Trump 1.0 did it and nothing happened.
This is going to turn out fine.
Though crazy, even you aren’t as psychopathic as Trump.
Another terrific analysis of this appalling Iran situation Trump has put us in. The more I think about it and with time passing and gas prices skyrocketing your idea of "Open for All or Closed to All" makes good sense. Too bad Trump's advisors don't bring to the table your experience and smarts. I am not confident this will end well or quickly.
Every action is tied to November, holding on to Congress meaning hold on to MAGA voters, he can’t appear to be weak and he needs rising stock prices, decreasing oil prices and the appearance of strength, all unlikely. T needs a horrific event to line up all Americans behind him. Perhaps a Mars alien attack 😫
I listened to Trump drone his way through his pre-pre-prepared remarks with as much enthusiasm as I expect he shows when forced to eat the vegetables served with his double cheeseburgers. I was especially distressed to hear his "... back to the Stone Ages" (Wait, there was more than one!?) remark. I remember his remark's point of reference, and Trump is clearly rewatching the wrong war movies (and those around him are not helping him or the rest of us.)
Re blocking the Gulf of Oman, does Mr. Haass really mean to suggest that the US should block or board a Chinese ship?
Completely disagree. I now believe Iran must have a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against foreign attack. And only 2 countries are interested in attacking Iran and have been in the last 40 years, the USA and Israel. For all practical purposes, this is not even an axis of evil; it's a singular point of evil where US and Israeli interests are fused and cannot be divided. They will go down together because Iran has been preparing for this since 1979, when the ISUS (Israel-USA) was forming. Iran has a strategy and has tactics, Israel has tactics but no strategy, and the USA has a pedophile as a president, which says everything anybody needs to know.