Of Course (August 25, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. Here at Home I could write about the migration crisis, mugshots, Hunter Biden, tropical storms, urban crime and homelessness, and out-of-control fires, but I will spare you all that. Instead, I will focus on Wednesday night’s Republican debate.
Debate Takeaways
My overall assessment is that the 45th president made the right choice in not showing up. Donald Trump was the strong frontrunner going into the debate, and there is no reason to believe that will change as a result.
He would have been the principal target of Chris Christie and possibly others had he been there. Instead, that role fell to Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump-like wannabe who described climate change as a hoax, embraced isolationism, and called for dismantling much of the government. I would argue that he was the beneficiary of way too much attention from both Christie and Mike Pence.
The most impressive person on the stage by far was former South Carolina Governor and Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. She was the most presidential in her answers on climate change, abortion, and Ukraine. Less clear is whether this will translate into significantly more support for her.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis refused to answer several questions and looked weak in not raising his hand until five of the others did when asked if he’d support Trump even if the former president is convicted of felonies. DeSantis also raised his hand after saying he rejected hand-raising when asked about climate change. He begrudgingly gave Pence credit for upholding the Constitution and quickly tried to change the topic. Tim Scott was something of a no-show. The others mostly didn’t register.
On China, multiple candidates called the country the gravest threat to the United States, but when the moderators tried to steer the debate toward China policy, they quickly pivoted to talking about the southern border. Perhaps that is a reflection of what Republican primary voters care most about, but it would have been revealing to hear their views on an issue sure to occupy a good deal of the time of the next occupant of the Oval Office.
Overall, the shouting, talking over one another, the impossibility of answering big questions in sixty or thirty seconds, the few chances to talk, the boos from the largely pro-Trump crowd, the annoying but almost always ignored bell: all diminished more than they raised up. Too often Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum lost control of the proceedings.
I also thought many of the Republicans came off as being out of step with the country on climate change and abortion. I was pleasantly surprised when some in the crowd booed when Ramaswamy called climate change a hoax. Too many are unwilling to take on Trump and his fitness or lack of it to be president. Several put forward a false choice between acting responsibly in the world and tackling domestic challenges.
They are right to be critical of the Biden administration’s failed border policy, but the answer is not to put the U.S. military on the southern border with orders to shoot unarmed men, women, and children. What we can and should do is build better physical barriers, employ modern surveillance technology, increase the number of border patrol agents and asylum judges, and expand cooperation with neighboring countries.
Last, I expect the 46th president had a pretty good night’s sleep after watching the debate. But there were some warning signs for him. The age issue. The strong debate performance of Nikki Haley. References to Hunter Biden and the unequal application of the law. The all-but-open southern border and the resulting migrant influx. Concerns about crime. Frustration with teachers unions and the lack of school choice. Widespread discontent over the economy, driven by inflation and the high cost of borrowing. Indeed, come next year, the economy could prove more politically significant than the debate suggested if Republicans focus on it more.
From Russia (but not with love)
As for Away, there are several items to comment on. The most dramatic was the news out of Russia that Yevgeny Prigozhin met the fate many predicted for him when his political challenge to Vladimir Putin unraveled two months ago. Putin, like Saddam Hussein before him, lives by the adage that revenge is a dish best served cold. The predictions of many experts, that Putin was much weakened by the June coup attempt, do not appear to have been borne out. He looks to be very much in control, although what the remnants of the Wagner Group will choose to do remains unclear. Prigozhin for his part ignored the adage, sometimes attributed to Emerson, that “When you strike at a king, you must kill him.” Just why he backed off on the road to Moscow remains a mystery. His death appears to be less of one.
The Course of the War
Ukraine is also much in the news. There are a good many stories that the counter-offensive is not going as hoped for. Some attribute it to Russian defensive positions. Others to Ukrainian strategy and tactics. Still others to a lack of advanced weaponry. But whatever the reason or reasons, the reality appears to be that come the end of this second fighting season the map will look much as it currently looks – and as it did when this fighting season began months ago. Which is to say we – the United States, the West, Ukraine – are edging closer to a big (and overdue) debate on what to do if what we are doing is not succeeding if success is measured by expelling Russian troops and liberating Ukrainian territory. I fully expect to weigh in on this in the coming weeks and months.
Off Course
The big international story of the week is China, and more specifically, its economic woes. China’s economy is overly reliant on unproductive investment (especially infrastructure) and exports, bloated and uncompetitive state-owned enterprises, and ballooning debt. These problems stem from Chinese leaders’ decision to expand the role of the state in the economy, to ignore or suppress market forces, and to stymie the emergence of a private sector and middle class. The consensus among observers is that the difficulties are many and real and that what China is doing – minor rate cuts — will not come close to turning things around.
So what then? I wrote a piece for Project Syndicate suggesting that Xi Jinping has three options. He can stay the course. He can change course. Or he can change the conversation. He will want to stay the course but the risk is that it will continue to fail, triggering political unrest. He could change course (as he did last December on Covid) but this could come at the expense of political control.
The third option, changing the conversation, is shorthand for creating a Taiwan crisis and turning to nationalism to shore up popular support of and legitimacy for the leadership and the Party. It must be the goal of the United States and the West to impress upon Xi that such a course would be dangerous and costly folly.
On the Course
As for sports, I will focus on golf, but first let me just say I am at a loss when it comes to explaining the demise of the Yankees. Their own general manager has described their season as a disaster. I agree, and many would suggest he is one reason why. Only the Mets challenge them for being the worst baseball team that money can buy. I have turned my attention to football (the Giants) and basketball (the Knicks) and am feeling upbeat about the prospects of both. Hope springs eternal.
In the world of golf, it is impossible not to marvel at the round played last Sunday by Viktor Hovland. He won last week’s BMW championship with a score of 17-under par. What was truly remarkable though was his final round 61. Even more remarkable was his 28 on the final 9. That translates into eight 3’s and one 4. The only person to have come close to performing at this level was Kim Jong-il, the former leader of North Korea, who according to their always-reliable state media, carded a 34 over 18 holes (38 under par), including 11 holes-in-one. I have not played that course (just outside of Pyongyang), but it is officially on my bucket list.
I should probably end on that high note, but honesty compels me to comment on my golf game. To cut to the chase, I am still hovering around the 13 mark. I remain convinced there is a ten or better golfer inside me, but that person keeps getting undermined by a few bad drives and a few too many putts that seem to enter into every round.
I do, however, want to thank those readers who weighed in on my golfing frustrations. One called my goal worthy; another tried to make me feel better by noting that a 13 handicap is good for someone who has worked all his life. There were even suggestions for what I might do to improve. All appreciated. In return, I promise to stay the course on the course.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Friday, August 18: CNN The Situation Room on Camp David trilateral with Japan and South Korea.
Monday, August 21: CNBC Closing Bell: Overtime on China’s economic slowdown.
Articles:
China’s Homegrown Crisis (Project Syndicate)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.