Welcome to Home & Away. We are now less than fifty days away from Election Day, and early voting is already underway in some states. Vice President Harris’ prospects will be bolstered by the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.5% (or 50 basis points in finance lingo) and even more so by falling gasoline prices, but the objective state of the economy will matter less than what resonates with tens of thousands of voters in the few swing states likely to prove decisive. All of which is to say that anyone predicting the outcome of the election with confidence should be ignored.
Out of Sorts
Here at Home, there appears to have been another attempt to assassinate Donald Trump, in this instance while the former president was playing golf. Thankfully, the Secret Service was able to thwart the effort before the would-be assassin fired a single shot. Had the plot succeeded, I fear that it would have further poisoned our politics as well as triggered revenge attacks against other political figures.
Political violence is in the air, and there is no reason to believe we are through the worst of it. Why is this the case? To be sure, our gun laws—or lack of them—make it all too easy for individuals with dangerous intentions and/or mental and emotional challenges to come into possession of these instruments of violence, but this only accounts for the means, not the motive.
My own view (which admittedly I cannot prove) is that the growing violence stems in no small part from the reality that we are a country but less and less a community. Americans are separated by their politics, news sources, and much else, and increasingly choose to live and spend time with others who are like-minded. (This is often referred to “sorting.”) There are also those spending more time alone with only electronic devices for company, a phenomenon that the pandemic exacerbated and persists today. It is easier to contemplate or carry out violence against those with whom you have no connection nor sense of empathy.
There is no single or simple fix for what ails us, but one thing that would help is increased opportunities to perform public service, something that can reduce isolation as well as social and political divisions. Historically, the military did this by bringing together Americans who in the normal course of their lives would have never come to know, much less trust, one another. There are as well any number of civilian counterparts. I am heartened that a number of states (most recently New York) have followed California’s lead in launching such programs, but much more is needed given the prevalence and severity of the challenge.
It is ironic that President Trump should be a potential victim of political violence given all that he has done to foster an atmosphere more likely to produce such actions. The latest attacks on legal Haitian immigrants in Ohio are but the most recent example. There was of course January 6 and any number of statements by him encouraging violence against his political opponents or others. It would be welcome if religious leaders used their pulpit to denounce and delegitimize political violence, something I called for in The Bill of Obligations where I made the rejection of violence the fifth obligation of a good citizen. Business leaders also should add their voice to this conversation, as should teachers. It is yet another reason that we need mandatory civics courses in our schools, as one staple of such an education would be to explain why political violence is unacceptable in and inconsistent with a democracy.
The Dis-United Nations
Here in New York City, we are about to experience the annual invasion (along with the associated gridlock) that inevitably accompanies the opening of the United Nations General Assembly’s fall session. This comes at a time when the UN is going through a particularly debilitating phase in which its principal venue, the Security Council, has been reduced to near total ineffectiveness due to deep divisions among the great powers, which can wield their veto to block any measure they choose to.
The Security Council is held back by its composition (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), which favors those countries that were most influential when it was founded some eighty years ago, and as a result hardly represents the distribution of power and influence in today’s world. Changing it, though, is near impossible as any conceivable reform would be blocked by those who judge the change would come at their expense.
But the UN as a whole is marginalized even more by the re-emergence of geopolitics and deep divisions among the major powers. Russia and China are quick to threaten or cast vetoes to prevent the UN from taking on a role in disputes involving what they view as their vital interests.
This translates into the UN being irrelevant when it comes to doing anything about Russian aggression against Ukraine, China’s increasingly bellicose behavior in the South China Sea, or North Korea’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The organization would not play any role if a Taiwan crisis breaks out. The UN has also been mostly sidelined when it comes to the Middle East given deep divisions between how the major powers (including the United States) view Israel and Iran.
But the body’s limited impact won’t get in the way of the Middle East being the dominant topic at this year’s meetings and events. Israel and the United States will find themselves largely isolated as we approach the one-year anniversary of October 7. Double standards and selective outrage are not unknown at these gatherings.
I expect much of what will be said will focus on Israel’s conduct in Gaza, where one could argue a good deal of criticism is warranted. But this reflects the past year more than what is likely to come during the next, for the conflict in Gaza is winding down, albeit with far too much civilian suffering persisting and no hostage deal in sight. Another casualty of October 7 and Israel’s response appears to have been Saudi willingness to normalize ties with Israel, something the Crown Prince announced this week will not occur absent the establishment of a Palestinian state, something not about to happen any time soon, if ever. It seems even those who rule with few checks on their power must take into account popular opinion, which in this case has swung sharply against Israel.
Meanwhile, the prospect for major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the north is increasing. Israel’s covert operation of manufacturing pagers and walkie-talkies that contained explosives, selling them to Hezbollah, and then remotely detonating them maimed a good many Hezbollah operatives, along with a number of unaffiliated Lebanese civilians, but it risks adding to the momentum toward increased military exchanges—all of which will make it less likely the 60,000 or so displaced Israelis will be able to return safely to their homes in the border region any time soon, even though Israel’s security cabinet announced just this week that their return is officially a war objective. Sometimes an undertaking can be a tactical success yet strategically questionable. This may well have been one of those times.
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Richard Haass in the news
Thursday, September 12: Medhead Podcast
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens