Pardon Me (December 6, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. Hope you all had an enjoyable, politics-free or at least politics-lite holiday. Also hope you didn’t gain too much weight or, if you did, the calories were superior.
Lots to catch up on. Let’s start with Away.
Giving Peace a Chance
First, the ceasefire in Lebanon, which is not quite a ceasefire. I wrote about it in a piece for Project Syndicate, A New Chance for the Middle East. Among other things, I suggested the Hezbollah ceasefire would strengthen Bibi Netanyahu politically and put him in a position to accept a ceasefire in Gaza. But that potential will only come to fruition if he modifies Israeli policy in a direction opposed by the zealots who constitute part of his ruling coalition.
One big question, then, is whether Netanyahu would agree to a political process that holds out the possibility (however distant, conditional, and vague in terms of territorial reach) of creating a Palestinian state. In the near term, such a process would pave the way for the entry into Gaza of a regional stabilization force and the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
If he remains unwilling, the second big question is whether Donald Trump, whom the Israeli right sees as a friend, would lean on Netanyahu and his government in a way that President Joe Biden never could. It would be more difficult for Netanyahu to resist Trump’s pressure, and much easier for Trump to apply and sustain such pressure, given his support among American evangelicals and certain American Jewish communities.
What comes to mind is Richard Nixon whom, it was said, was able to reach out to Mao’s China because he didn’t have to worry about Nixon. Much the same now applies to Trump and Israel. So far though the only leaning Trump has done is on Hamas, by threatening there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he became president on January 20. It is not clear what more hell could be unleashed on Hamas; more intriguing is whether Trump is signaling he would hold Iran responsible.
Shifting to Ukraine, I want to highlight two developments. First, President Zelensky is now talking publicly about agreeing to a ceasefire that would allow Russian forces to remain in place. This is good as it reflects the real world, not just the battlefield but also political realities, namely that a majority of Ukrainians are ready to contemplate ending the war. Zelensky wants a security commitment from NATO, which isn’t in the cards any time soon. What could be possible though is a long-term commitment from the United States and others to provide arms.
Then there is the appointment of Keith Kellogg as the Trump administration’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg was Vice President Mike Pence’s national security advisor. His writing on the subject of Ukraine is reassuring. Kellogg is at times critical of Putin (he applies adjectives ranging from “nonsensical” to “ridiculous” in describing Putin’s statements on Ukraine). He also calls out the Obama administration for not providing lethal aid to Ukraine and the Biden administration for not doing more sooner to assist Ukraine. He also is critical of the Biden team for not articulating an achievable set of war aims.
Full disclosure: Kellogg has nice things to say about yours truly on the subject, aligning himself with an article I wrote with Charlie Kupchan in 2023 and with some of my more recent statements. All of which leads me to think a Trump administration is unlikely to throw Ukraine under the bus to achieve a ceasefire, something Putin might be more inclined to accept now given the military costs of the war, his deteriorating economy, and the fact that an interim ceasefire in place is now an option. What is certain is that the question of negotiations has risen to the top of the inbox.
Getting Serious about Syria
Suddenly Syria, amidst a decade-long civil war, is back in the news. I cannot tell you with confidence just why this rebel grouping decided to attack now and has gained the momentum against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. But one motivating factor could be that Assad’s principal backers – Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia – are weakened and preoccupied. The regime appears to have been caught by surprise and is somewhat on its heels. Normally this would be a good thing, except for the uncomfortable fact that a big part of the rebel force are Islamists who if victorious could bring into power a Taliban-like government that associates with terrorists and treats its own people with serious intolerance. Turkey’s expanding role is as well less than reassuring. Here as elsewhere, the enemy of your enemy can still be your enemy.
A side note. When the Syria news broke, I tweeted (X’d?) out an item about the enemy of your enemy and all that, and as of now there have been some 96,000 views. Which is to suggest that X still has value despite all that Elon Musk is trying to do to make it less attractive. It provides a big megaphone, and to the extent it is becoming more ideological, it provides an opportunity to reach those who are more likely to have voted for Trump than Harris. Which leads me to Blue Sky and Threads. I know there are those who are leaving X for these other sites. My instinct is it would be better to operate on multiple sites, including X. The worlds of radio and cable and podcasts are already politically siloed (or, if you prefer, sorted) to an unsettling degree without adding social media to the mix.
Seoul on Ice
The most bizarre international story of recent days is what took place in South Korea, where a stymied, embattled, unpopular, and frustrated president declared martial law, only to have it rejected in a matter of hours by the legislature. Public support for President Yoon’s move was close to non-existent and he quickly backed down. The good news is that South Korean democracy proved resilient. I don’t think this will be the end of it, however, as President Yoon has lost a good deal of his legitimacy and faces a serious impeachment threat that could well succeed.
While we are on the subject of democracies, it is hard not to worry about what is going on in Europe. Both Germany and France are in disarray. The French government just lost a confidence vote for the first time since 1962. The leftists and rightists who brought down the government know what they oppose, but much less clear is what they are prepared to support. Notre Dame may be opening for business, but the same cannot be said for the country.
Trading Places
The Trump transition is talking about introducing tariffs on the country’s three largest trade partners: Mexico, Canada, and China. Tariffs can be of two sorts: they can be put in place to raise prices on imports, in turn making domestically produced goods more competitive and reducing a trade imbalance. Or they can be tools of leverage so that the targeted country does something desired or stops doing something disliked. The tariffs Trump is considering could be driven by multiple objectives: promoting manufacturing at home, reducing bilateral trade imbalances, and/or having a bargaining chip to force a change in selective policies. What the Trump administration sets as conditions for their removal will tell us a lot about its priorities. I am betting that reaching some new understanding on the border (especially with Mexico) will take priority over all else.
Speaking of Mexico, the southern border was a principal reason Donald Trump won the 2024 election. Surprisingly, though, I have yet to see a thorough investigative piece on how Biden’s border policy unfolded. Who argued for it and why? Who argued against it? Why wasn’t it reversed sooner, when it became clear it wasn’t working and had become an enormous political liability? If there is such a piece, I’d appreciate your letting me know. And if you are in a position to write such a piece, go for it. It would make a fascinating case-study.
Some Random Thoughts
The nominations process continues to unfold. So far two have dropped out: Matt Gaetz for Attorney General and Chad Chronister for the Drug Enforcement Administration. A third, Pete Hegseth, seems vulnerable. Hegseth’s problems range from his lack of relevant experience to questions over his management of private veterans organizations and his personal behavior, including multiple reports of drunkenness and other misconduct. If so, this reminds me of nothing so much as the failed nomination by George H.W. Bush of Senator John Tower, who was similarly tapped to run the Pentagon but admitted to problems with the “beverage alcohol” and was replaced by none other than Dick Cheney. The rest as they say is history.
This still leaves three highly questionable picks out there: Tulsi Gabbard for DNI, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for HHS, and Kash Patel for FBI. I keep hearing that Senate Republicans are fast using up their willingness to take on Trump, but I am not so sure, as the four Republican votes required in each case to block a nomination need not be the same. Indeed, those opposing this or that individual might well change given committee membership and interest in an issue. Trump would actually be well-served by these nominations going down as all four of these individuals promise to cause more problems than they would ever solve.
One of the ironies of the 2024 presidential campaign is what the two candidates would not talk about. Trump was reluctant to discuss Operation Warp Speed and all his administration did to accelerate the emergence of effective Covid-19 vaccines because so much of his base opposed them. And Biden and then Harris would not boast about how the United States had become the world’s largest producer of oil lest the climate and anti-fracking crowds get upset even though it allowed Trump to portray himself as the defender of energy security. Go figure.
There’s a lot of talk about what lessons the Democrats ought to learn from having lost. Some are calling for what would amount to a Democratic Leadership Council 2.0. Count me as skeptical. I will take such self-reflection seriously only when I see Democrats speaking openly about the failure of public schools to educate many of their students and the role of the teachers’ unions in that failure, about the need for an emphasis on equal opportunity rather than outcomes, and on zero tolerance for unauthorized entry into this country along with a willingness to close the asylum loophole.
As for the Republicans, they claim to be anti-establishment. I will take them more seriously when they come out against the carried interest loophole that allows it to be taxed at the lower capital gains level rather than as income. They are willing to attack affirmative action and diversity initiatives but what about reducing what can be passed on tax free to the next generation? Or about ending legacy admissions? Such policies make a mockery of the notion that opportunity in this country is equal. And since Republicans now control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, what about doing something serious about the deficit and debt rather than blithely talking about growing our way out of it or cutting discretionary spending rather than raising taxes and restructuring entitlements?
The priorities identified by DOGE – the Department of Government Efficiency, to be run by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – could be revealing here. It will be interesting to see if and how it takes on the Defense bureaucracy, what Eisenhower called the military industrial complex, or more accurately the congressional/military/industrial complex.
What else could DOGE usefully do? It could streamline approval and construction of nuclear power plants and arrangements for dealing with nuclear waste. Maybe it could help this country catch up with much of the world and introduce high speed rail. Or tackle entitlement spending. The list is long.
Unpardonable
The decision of President Biden to pardon his son Hunter is at once understandable and unfortunate. The former is obvious as this troubled young or no longer young man clearly struggled with losing a mother, sister, and brother. Any father would do just about everything possible to protect his child.
But Biden also has long had a blind spot when it comes to his son, one that did neither of them a favor. The consulting Hunter did in Ukraine (for which he was unqualified) was at best legal corruption. He was convicted by a jury of his peers for tax- and gun-related crimes. The pardon was made worse by the fact that Biden and this White House had long maintained it would not happen…and then even worse by an explanation that suggested the Justice Department was singling out his son. It was all, well, Trumpian. And it will simply give Trump further license (not that he needs it) to misuse the pardon power and make it all but impossible for Democrats to attack him if and when he does.
One more thing. The pardon is just the sort of thing that signals that the rich and the powerful in this country enjoy advantages that others do not, that the game is rigged. It fuels populism and Trumpism. Joe Biden’s legacy, already battered by his belated decision to drop out of the 2024 race, a decision that made it all but impossible for Kamala Harris to win, will be further tarnished.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Wednesday, November 20: Everyday Ambassador (podcast), Lessons from Friendship in Rebuilding Trust and Bridging Divides
Tuesday, November 26: Andrea Mitchell Reports
Wednesday, December 4: The Michael Medved Show Podcast
The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History, “The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens” (video).
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens