Pony Up (October 20, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. I want to start with a story oft told by Ronald Reagan, one of the better raconteurs to ever occupy the Oval Office. It’s a story about twins and a pony. The twins could not be more different: one was a total optimist, the other just the opposite. Their parents became sufficiently concerned by this that they took them to see a psychiatrist.
The psychiatrist treated the pessimist first. He took the boy into a room piled high with toys. The little boy burst into tears. “What’s the matter?” asked the psychiatrist. “Don’t you want to play with these toys?” “Of course I do,” sobbed the pessimistic boy, “but I’m afraid that I’ll break them.”
Next the psychiatrist treated the optimist. He took the boy into a room piled high with horse manure. The little boy shouted with delight. Then he jumped on top of the pile and began digging with his bare hands. “What are you doing?” asked the puzzled psychiatrist. “With all this manure,” said the boy, “there must be a pony in here somewhere!”
Reagan loved this story, as it captured his innate optimism. What does this have to do with “Home & Away” you might well ask? It has been a dark week, but I see something good, something positive, to say.
Speaker-less
Let’s begin at home. The bad news – the manure if you will – is that the House of Representatives (or, more specifically, the Republican conference) finds itself somewhere between chaos and anarchy (disarray is not nearly a strong enough adjective). As a result, the Congress cannot perform its principal function, legislating. We are less than a month away from the next shutdown deadline and the Congress is in no position to deal with it (or in the meantime with urgent aid required for both Ukraine and Israel, as the President is requesting) as there is no Speaker of the House to manage the process.
The good news is that Jim Jordan, someone who is manifestly unfit to be Speaker of the House of Representatives (or any other house for that matter) is having trouble garnering the votes he needs. He has no legislative record to speak of, having spent sixteen years in Congress but failing to sponsor a single bill that became law, and from all reports was central to the events of January 6, including a ten-minute phone call with President Trump that he has refused to explain. Unclear are the alternatives to Jordan and how to get to them; the image that comes to mind in describing House Republicans is a circular firing squad. Those committed to American democracy have to hope Jordan continues to come up short and that Republican pragmatists and Democrats will find their way to making common cause.
The Latest in Gaza
Away, the big story is obviously Gaza. The pony here, the good news amidst all the suffering and the concern things could get even worse, which is often the case in the Middle East, is American diplomacy. President Biden deserves praise and more for his courageous tightrope act. It was risky to go to Israel, doubly so after the deadly explosion in the Gaza hospital compound. But Biden properly assessed that without an active U.S. role the conflict would almost surely widen. He has blended support and empathy for Israel with thoughtful advice calling for restraint and reminders of what is expected from a democracy. Not known for his oratory, Biden delivered yet another remarkable speech on October 18. Hopefully his words will not just be heard but also heeded in Israel.
I want to say something about the explosion at the hospital. My guess is that the evidence presented by Israel and backed up by the United States, that the ordinance was fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and not Israel, will never gain traction in much of the Middle East and beyond, including among Hamas’s sympathizers in this country. It is hard not to be reminded of the old line, that a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has got its boots on. It is too bad but somewhat typical that Arab leaders, including the King of Jordan, the president of Egypt, and the head of the Palestinian Authority, assumed Israel was to blame and were unwilling to be seen meeting with the American president afterwards. It only made Biden’s already difficult undertaking that much more difficult even though they would benefit if his diplomacy were to succeed. Their decision not to meet with Biden was also shortsighted because they missed an opportunity to convey their concerns and priorities directly to the president.
For now, we are not even close to being out of the woods. There are all sorts of actors and little if any overlap in agendas. I continue to write and speak about what is going on in the hope that smart policy can prevail over emotions (links for those interested are below). Last Friday’s newsletter included several items, and Saturday’s special edition included my recent Foreign Affairs article, “What Friends Owe Friends.” I also have a piece coming out in this weekend’s Wall Street Journal that summarizes events of the last few days and suggests what the United States ought to do immediately and down the road. It is impossible to be an optimist, but some impressive diplomacy has at least kept open the chance that the worst can be avoided and something good should not be ruled out once the dust settles.
Oval Overtures
President Biden delivered a rare Oval Office address to the nation last night. The speech was designed to provide a backdrop for asking Congress to approve military aid for both Ukraine and Israel. It was less eloquent than his previous two speeches devoted to Israel, but the president did articulate the case for American internationalism, implicitly rejecting isolationism. I wish he had explained that we have the ability to both meet our international responsibilities and our domestic challenges, if only because many oppose much of what we are doing in the world in the mistaken belief we cannot do both. (For the record, the share of GDP now being devoted to national security is slightly above half what we averaged during the Cold War, a period of sustained economic and social improvement.)
My guess is the speech will not move many in this country to change their stances. I also expect it will not reassure America’s friends abroad given what is going on in the House and the bigger uncertainty as to who will be sitting in the Oval Office just over a year from now. What should not be overlooked is that President Biden put down three markers in the address. First, he cautioned Israel against an emotional response to October 7, i.e., a large-scale ground and air invasion and occupation of Gaza, reminding it of how the United States overreached after 9/11. Second, he reminded Israelis of their obligation to observe the laws of war, meaning they need to make every effort to minimize civilian casualties and to permit aid shipments to reach Gaza. And third, he emphasized the long-term importance of a two-state solution, the only way to break the dynamic of Israeli-Palestinian violence and suffering.
The World Doesn’t Wait
Elsewhere abroad this week saw Ukraine employ longer-range ATACMS missiles to good effect against Russian forces inside Ukraine. As for China, the week was a mixed bag. Economic growth figures (close to five percent) were higher than expected for the third quarter, but the Commerce Department announced new export controls on AI-related chips; for its part, Beijing seems to have retaliated by curbing the export of graphite, a critical component of electric vehicles that it dominates. The week also saw Xi Jinping convene his third Belt and Road forum, the first since 2019. Vladimir Putin was treated as the guest of honor, which suggests that China remains very much in Russia’s camp despite its long-held foreign policy principle that sovereignty is sacrosanct. My guess is that China’s leadership is not just being opportunist here but also sees a parallel between Russia’s claim to Ukraine and theirs to Taiwan.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Friday, October 13: Bloomberg Wall Street Week on how Israel should respond to the Hamas attacks
Saturday, October 14: NPR Weekend Edition Saturday on the war in Israel and U.S. foreign policy
Sunday, October 15: CNN Fareed Zakaria GPS on Israel’s Gaza strategy
Monday, October 16: MSNBC Way Too Early on Israel, Iran, and elections in Poland (audio-only; begins at 29:45). Instagram Live with Katie Couric on Israel.
Tuesday, October 17: The Michael Medved Show & Channel 4 News (UK) on the war in Israel
Wednesday, October 18: CNN Amanpour and MSNBC Andrea Mitchell Reports on the war in Israel
Thursday, October 19: BBC World Service News hour (begins at 15:04). MSNBC José Diaz-Balart Reports on Israel.
Articles
What Friends Owe Friends (Foreign Affairs)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.