Shalom, King Charles (May 12, 2023)
Welcome to Home & Away. Normally I focus on just a few items, be they domestic or international, but today I will offer up many. Some deal with the past week, some go back a little longer. Think of it as a political mezze, a collection of small plates that together make for a meal.
Here at home, there was another mass shooting. We have reached the point where I could all too easily (and tragically) include one or more references to guns in every issue – and indeed I’ve written about them in previous editions of this newsletter. Nothing will change until access to guns is made more difficult for those too young or unstable…and no one regardless of age or emotional stability should have access to those guns that belong only in warzones unless it is our intention to turn our streets, malls, schools, workplaces, churches, and concert venues into battlefields.
Yes, mental illness is a problem that demands our attention, but there is no reason to believe that mental illness is more prevalent in this country than in others. What explains why between three and four thousand people are gunned down in this country each and every month is not individual mental illness but collective political insanity. This does not happen in any other country. And this will only change in this country when there is more political reward for those politicians who support reasonable limits on guns than for those who reject them.
We have also reached the point where I could provide a weekly Donald Trump legal update. This, too, is depressing. This week saw a jury in a civil case in New York decide that Mr. Trump needed to pay E. Jean Carroll $5 million for sexual assault and defamation. What remains interesting, though, is that this and other legal problems do not seem to be translating into political setbacks for the former president.
Indeed, and despite this judgment against him, it was a pretty good week for Trump, in no small part because CNN provided him with a national platform in primetime. Wednesday night’s town hall was a gift to him, as in front of a largely friendly audience he was able to peddle falsehood after falsehood. It was a stark reminder that 2024 is shaping up not as simply another election, between candidates advocating for different priorities and policies, but between one candidate accepting the fundamental precepts of American democracy and another who does not. Add in the many questionable or at times reckless policy pronouncements on issues ranging from the debt to Ukraine, and it is near impossible to exaggerate what could be at stake in November 2024.
Elsewhere at home, debt ceiling talks have picked up in frequency if not in results. The basics are the same: there will either be a deal or disaster, and a deal will require compromise on both sides. As I said a week ago, I would not be surprised if there were a crisis, a market swoon, and then a deal. But one way or another, and no matter how it is packaged, there will ultimately be a deal. Uncertain are the specifics on spending and taxes, the extent to which any agreement reduces the accumulation of additional debt, and the costs of any dramatic failures before an accord is reached.
I also want to say something about the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John Roberts. I am normally an admirer, but not today. Dick Durbin, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, requested on April 20 that Roberts testify before his committee on judicial ethics; five days later, Roberts declined.
This refusal seems to me to be wrong. As my former friend and colleague Dick Neustadt famously wrote, “The constitutional convention of 1787 is supposed to have created a government of ‘separated powers.’ It did nothing of the sort. Rather, it created a government of separated institutions sharing powers.”
That is what checks and balances are all about. There must be oversight and accountability, and a Supreme Court that refuses to hold itself accountable (as is the case when Clarence Thomas and other justices or their family members receive gifts or compensation from those with potential business before the court) must accept the oversight of another branch of government. Power without accountability is a recipe for abuse.
On the Away side of the house, I want to focus on a few issues. The first is India. Ashley Tellis wrote a thoughtful essay for Foreign Affairs, arguing that widespread hopes in the United States that India will become a true strategic partner or even ally vis-à-vis China are misplaced. Instead, it will hedge and disappoint. We can call it the Indo-Pacific theater, but doing so does not make it such.
Also of interest on India is a piece by Fareed Zakaria, who hails from India and knows it well. It is the most bullish piece on India I have seen in some time. He emphasizes many bright economic developments while acknowledging a large portion of the population remains trapped in rural poverty. There is as well the reality that India’s democracy is becoming increasingly illiberal, de-emphasizing its secular traditions for an often strident Hindu nationalism. But even if Fareed’s optimistic vison for India comes to pass, it in no way means that Ashley Tellis is wrong. It is quite possible that India can be economically successful and strategically frustrating at one and the same time.
These two pieces provide good context ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming State Visit, which was just announced and is scheduled for June 22. It will be interesting to see whether the Biden administration can convince India to moderate its energy purchases from Russia and do more to support Ukraine. Equally interesting will be what the United States and India announce relating to China.
Then there are two speeches by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan worth highlighting. The first, given at Brookings, signaled an important re-direction of American economic and foreign policy alike. It is a course correction I would describe as unfortunate. I will admit to having a visceral reaction to the phrase “foreign policy for the middle class.” Call me madcap, but I always thought our foreign policy was meant to promote the interests of all Americans regardless of class. And speaking of class, I never thought that was the way we saw our society, which was and is meant to provide mobility to all. We obviously don’t always meet our own goals or live up to our own principles, but we should keep them.
What’s more, the speech reinforces the anti-trade bias of this administration, something unfortunately shared by most Republicans nowadays. U.S. absence from the CPTPP is a strategic and economic error of the first order. Trade has been and could again be a major engine of economic growth and development. There is also a newfound enthusiasm for government intervention in the domestic economy that history suggests will be inefficient and trigger reciprocal protectionism by others.
The second speech by Jake Sullivan was delivered at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and offers up an overview of the administration’s Middle East policy. There is much I could address here as well, but my reason for noting the speech is simply to underscore one important line that got little attention, namely, that “Iran can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. As President Biden has repeatedly reaffirmed, he will take the actions that are necessary to stand by this statement, including by recognizing Israel’s freedom of action.” I may have missed it, but I cannot recall any president giving so clear a green light to Israel to undertake a preventive strike against Iran if it so chooses.
Also worth noting (and again involving Mr. Sullivan) is news that he and Wang Yi, China’s senior foreign policy official, met in Vienna over two days. The U.S. readout was refreshingly businesslike. “The two sides had candid, substantive, and constructive discussions on key issues in the U.S.-China bilateral relationship, global and regional security issues, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and cross-Strait issues, among other topics. This meeting was part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage competition.” Until and unless we learn something else, it seems the two most important governments are again talking, some six months after Presidents Biden and Xi met in Bali and before Chinese balloons and an American decision to postpone Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s trip to Beijing (where he was scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping) derailed much-needed diplomacy.
Last but not least are two bonus items. I will admit the first thought I had when reading this piece about Afghanistan was that it was a spoof, something in The Onion. It is not. Turns out rank and file Taliban are having some regrets. Working in an office 9-to-5 is not nearly as exciting as blowing stuff up 24/7. Struggling with work-life balance is clearly a global phenomenon.
Then there was the coronation of King Charles III, which took place this past Saturday. I tend to find the pageantry and music irresistible, but then again I lived in the UK for close to six years. Azi Schwartz, the gifted cantor at my synagogue, offered up his own tribute the night before, with a rendition of Shalom Aleichem, the prayer for peace that ends the Friday night service that welcomes the sabbath, sung on this occasion to the tune of God Save the King. You can find the video here at the 1:06:19 minute mark. Listen.
As always, some links to click on. Feel free to share Home & Away. And a happy Mother’s Day to all the moms reading this.
Richard Haass in the news
Monday, May 1: Conversations with Jim Zirin about The Bill of Obligations.
Tuesday, May 9: MSNBC Morning Joe on the war in Ukraine.
Friday, May 12: Yomiuri Shimbun on the upcoming G7 summit in Hiroshima.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.