Solstice Not Solace (December 20, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. We are closing in on the winter solstice, but now that I’ve said that, I am not sure what, if anything, to make of that fact other than I tend to feel better when the days start getting longer.
It continues to be a tough time for Western democracies. France, with its slew of short-lived prime ministers, is threatening to be ungovernable. The German government fell, likely triggering February elections, and Britain’s new Labour government is off to a bad start. I am hard-pressed to think of another time when our principal European allies were in such a weakened state. One consequence is that this weakness will reinforce Putin’s belief that time is on his side when it comes to Ukraine. Putin must be disabused of this notion if there is hope for a ceasefire on acceptable terms, something that will require an open-ended U.S. commitment to provide Ukraine with the arms necessary for its defense in exchange for Ukraine’s embrace of a reasonable ceasefire accord.
Closer to home, Canada’s government is unraveling, with the now former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland out and polls showing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau badly trailing the conservative opposition leader. There will be an election sometime in 2025. I don’t know who will be leading the Liberal Party, but my sense is they will only have a chance if they follow the lead of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and push back against Trump’s promise of tariffs by signaling that they are prepared to deploy economic pressure of their own. Indeed, Freeland’s resignation letter alluded to her disagreement with Trudeau’s less combative approach to Trump’s tariff threat.
Across the world, South Korea is in disarray as the prime minister has taken over from the president while the impeachment process plays out in the courts, but the whole saga is actually more a sign of democratic resilience than anything problematic. While the Korean situation is sui generis, the result of presidential overreach, the other predicaments are largely the result of prolonged sub-par economic performance. Democracies tend not to fare well when they don’t deliver the goods.
As for our own democracy, there are signs that are troubling, curious, or both. The incoming administration operates at extremes. There are serious candidates for major jobs and then those who have no business being nominated for them much less doing them. There is also the impression that Trump is already calling the shots whereas Biden is the former president, something that reflects both Trump’s personality but also Biden’s fading energy. (That anyone thought the current president could serve another four years is beyond comprehension.) And then there is the mounting evidence that Elon Musk is a de facto prime minister, with exhibit A being his decision to almost single-handedly kill the bipartisan spending bill drafted by House Speaker Mike Johnson. I wonder what the over/under is on when Trump tires of hearing about Musk’s outsized role and cuts back on his presence and influence. Bringing the country into default—a real possibility now that most Democrats and several dozen Republicans have joined forces to defy the alternative approach backed by Trump and Musk—may hasten the falling out as the two learn what could be the costly political lesson that it is easier to disrupt than govern.
In addition, it appears the President-elect is already succumbing to overreach, suggesting this week alone that Liz Cheney could be in significant legal trouble for her role in the January 6 investigation and suing Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register for “brazen election interference” on account of a pre-election poll that proved to be wildly inaccurate but favorable to Harris. This latter move came just days after ABC agreed to pay $15 million to Trump’s presidential foundation and museum (presumably to be built in Florida) along with an additional $1 million in legal fees for airing a report in which George Stephanopoulos said Trump had been found liable by a federal jury for rape rather than sexual abuse. ABC also issued a public statement expressing regret over the anchor’s statements.
Unless ABC was indeed guilty of the defamation Trump charged and feared it would all come out in discovery, it is not obvious why it didn’t apologize for its error, correct the record, and leave it at that. Had this gone to court, it is far from clear ABC would have lost the case, as the law requires not just the publication of false information but also knowledge that it was, or could well have been, false at the time of publication. It may be that ABC decided it was better to settle than pick a fight with the incoming president. But ABC’s decision, coupled with the Iowa suit, suggests the administration will not hesitate to go after news organizations when it serves its purposes to do so. The danger of course is that the organizations will start to tread carefully and self-censor when they ought to be holding the president and those around him fully accountable over the next four years.
Let me make a larger related point. We all, myself included, get things wrong from time to time. I was wrong along with many others in thinking Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the run up to the 2003 Iraq War. I saw his refusal to cooperate with weapons inspectors as evidence he had WMD when, in reality, he was hiding the fact he did not. But being wrong is not the same as intentionally misrepresenting what you know to be true. And for the record, I still opposed the decision to go to war, but that is a conversation for another day…or, if you are interested, you can consult the book I wrote about it, War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars.
One last thing about American democracy. There is real cause for concern about the lack of checks and balances given Republican control of the White House and the Congress along with a sympathetic Supreme Court. The New York Times ran an interesting piece last week about the role of the stock market and television coverage in providing guardrails given Donald Trump’s sensitivity to both. This may not have been what Madison had in mind when he wrote Federalist 51, but it may be the best we have.
Coal in your Stocking
Relatedly, the reference to coal here does not refer to the Fed’s signals Wednesday (that spooked the markets) about the likelihood of fewer rate cuts next year given persistent inflationary pressures, although it could. Rather, I want to highlight something on energy policy that I recently wrote for Project Syndicate with Carolyn Kissane, an associate dean and professor at New York University, where I have come to hold the title of “Distinguished University Scholar.”
It concerns the “energy transition.” The phrase has gained a hold over the public debate and many policymakers. It suggests the necessity of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable forms of energy such as solar, wind, and nuclear. Support for a transition away from fossil fuels reflects valid concerns about the existing and predicted costs of climate change as well as the evidence linking the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted by burning coal, oil, and natural gas with the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. The goal of the transition is to achieve “net zero” emissions, ideally by 2050, by phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with cleaner alternatives.
The problem is that such a transition is not happening and, given certain political and economic considerations, likely won’t happen. A new paradigm is needed: energy coexistence. This alternative framing would accept that energy consumption will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, with fossil fuels and renewables both playing a larger role. It is a question not of either/or, but rather both/and—all of the above and more of all—in order to achieve increased security, resilience, and affordability.
Despite what some will claim, the paradigm of energy coexistence can be consistent with a responsible climate policy. Modernizing energy grids to accommodate diverse energy sources and increase efficiency is critical, as is scaling carbon-capture and storage technologies to mitigate emissions. Encouraging the development of renewables through fostering public-private partnerships and easing site restrictions would help. Hastening the switch from coal, which is the most carbon-intensive relative to other fossil fuels, to lower-emission gas and renewables should be a high priority as well.
If you’re interested in reading more, here is a link to the piece.
Holiday Pleasure
I want to suggest a few other things to read and listen to over the holidays. There was an encouraging New York Times piece about the efforts on a number of American campuses to promote civility.
And speaking of civility (which happens to be the fourth obligation in a certain book you might recognize from the bottom of this newsletter), I commend a sermon by Elliot Cosgrove, my friend and rabbi. In “Don’t Plant a Flag,” he argues that it is not enough to simply not be a sore loser; it is also important to be a good winner. He even takes on his beloved Michigan Wolverines for violating this norm in the aftermath of their impressive win over Ohio State University.
A few other suggestions. First, a fascinating interview of Rahm Emanuel by Ezra Klein. It is well worth listening to as Rahm is razor sharp and is in the running to be the next head of the DNC, a choice that could help Democrats win back the House, Senate, and White House over the next four years.
Second, I want to highlight an article from the Lancet, “Ten Americas: A Systemic Analysis of Life Expectancy Disparities in the USA.” It divides the United States into ten sub-societies (according to a mix of race/ethnicity and geography). The core conclusion of this stunning study is a confirmation of “the continued existence of different Americas within the USA. One’s life expectancy varies dramatically depending on where one lives, the economic conditions in that location, and one’s racial and ethnic identity. This gulf was large at the beginning of the century, only grew larger over the first two decades, and was dramatically exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Third is Tina Brown’s new Substack, Fresh Hell. Here’s a link to the most recent edition, “Optical Delusions.” It costs the equivalent of several lattes at Starbucks, but it is well worth it as the writing is just brilliant.
Finally, and speaking of well-worth-it newsletters that handily justify their modest cost, I still think News Items, produced daily by my friend John Ellis, is the best way to start your morning. This links to a typical edition from earlier this week.
Have a wonderful holiday. I think we all deserve it.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Richard Haass in the news
Friday, December 13: The Road from Damascus - with Richard Haass and Alexis Bloom, Unholy: Two Jews on the News
Sunday, December 15: Fareed Zakaria GPS
Tuesday, December 17: The Energy Transition That Couldn’t, Project Syndicate
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens