Welcome to this special edition of Home & Away, one stimulated by a recent piece in The New York Times by David Sanger, “Bombing and a Tentative Accord Didn’t Work.
The lack of an experienced negotiating team with deep expertise on Iran and nuclear issues is clearly one of the many problems in dealing with the mess that Trump and his minions have now created by their precipitous and ill considered war on Iran. While I agree that Plan D as you’ve outlined would be a major, long term step to resolving this now extremely difficult problem, I despair that this Administration has the personnel, intelligence, or the competence to even begin to implement such a plan. Trump is simply hopeless when it comes to the intricacies of foreign policy and with that lack of understanding it is likely that the Iran situation will get much worse before a new Administration will have to tackle the resolution of this debacle which Trump has single-handedly created.
How about we reinvigorate US commment to domestic and and global fossil fuel alternative advancement, as well as our collective economic and environmental future, once and for all?
As a long term strategic plan, your suggestions make a lot of sense. In the short term those defensive measures should be prioritized and for God’s sake put some qualified negotiators at the table that don’t include worthless real estate and fund managers, his chosen two are a joke.
Sadly, I must agree with with your assessment of the likelihood of this plan coming to fruition. The plan makes sense unfortunately this administration lacks the personnel to implement any long term strategy.
Moving away from oil in the current political environment, while eminently feasible and smart, is unlikely. And this essay assumes that the Trump Administration is intelligent, coordinated and able to make long range decisions and none of that has been proven to be the case. Heavens, our fearless leader brags about taking intelligence tests meant to highlight the potential for Alzheimer’s. And everyone in town is afraid of him.
The situation will not be resolved until he’s gone.
Do you think it is realistic to expect this even more hardliner Iranian government will agree to the short term state and not try to use the strait to push for further gains?
They don't want to control the strait for nothing. They want to further use it to get sanction relief and restore their proxies and force the hostile forces out of the Gulf countries and force Israel out of Lebanon and restore Hezbollah and ... Their demands are maximalist.
So what are we supposed to do in the meantime?
It is time to stop repeating that this was a war of choice. That does not matter at this point. It has turned into a war of necessity as of now. It threatens vital national interests of the US, including our alliance in the Gulf, the intentional norms about ship traffic with consequences way beyond the strait, ...
The only time they back down is when they face defeat. That is what happened in their war with Iraq. The Iran-Iraq war and how it ended has a lot of lessons, that so called Iran experts don't talk about. They present a false sense of an unrelenting regime that is unwilling to back down no matter what. The hardliners were not happy with the end of Iran-Iraq war, but lack of resources forced them to accept the peace deal.
The only realistic path here is similar: make the Iranian government understand that if they do not back down from their maximalist demands, they will face a massive sustained military force that can lead to their regime to fall.
A war of choice is one that's avoidable, not just in its inception but in its continuance. One that a nation can, if it so chooses, walk away from.
We can walk away from this war--if we do, our interests will be affected, but our interests have already been affected (and for the worse) by starting it. It's harmed our relationship with Israel, it's set back any democratizing movements inside Iran, it's strengthened Iran's reputation in the region, it's demonstrated our inability to wage war effectively, it's shown weaknesses in our defenses of our bases and allies in the region, it's costing us *a lot* of money, and then there's the global economic fallout that's hitting us too, at the gas pump and elsewhere. And we can assume there will be continued loss of US lives.
It's not at all clear any of that can be fixed by more bombing, and the level of warfare that would be needed to make fixing it more likely (but still far from certain) is not something the American people will support.
Iran can't step away this war as long as we're fighting them. They have nowhere to go. For them it's a war of necessity. We can walk away. We've done it before. That's why this is still a war of choice for us.
What may be possible--but which is highly unlikely--is that the president would actually try to make a convincing case to the American people for *why* they should support the war. It's not clear a) he's interested in doing that, b) that even if he was, he could, or c) that anyone could make it, in fact.
as well recognized by most commenters, you recommend a measured, multifaceted approach that will need to be sustained with steady, hard nosed diplomacy over many years. I do not see the current administration being able to get to the first sentence of the first paragraph and sustaining anything for more than a week or two. Long term, strategic planning on any issue is not in the skill set.
Separate, but a related question. When the MOU was announced the price of oil plummeted. The failure of the MOU, as you pointed out, was nearly guaranteed from the start, and intelligent people knew that. Who bid down the price of oil so significantly? Uninformed and wishful retail investors is one answer. How does the administration manipulate (if they do) the oil market. A known doomed plan should not have had such an effect. Are oil traders all Trump supporters who are either wishful thinkers or blind supporters? I appreciate your great analysis, and would appreciate yours or other's thoughts.
Trump has a strategy; ad-hoc, impulsive action with a naivete about the fanatical ideology. They will not be swayed by diplomacy but use it as a ruse to buy time and to fatten their coffers for ongoing jihadi terror.
Unless one follows through to eliminate the regime, the rest is just playing games and a waste of time and money.
So how are you going to get positive regime change? America is upset at 14 deaths as too many. Maybe Israel should be forced to take Kharg Island or we abandon them? How are you going to target the new leaders when idiots told the media how it had been done? Oh , if tRUmP hadn't set up the surrender of Afghanistan; we at least could have built up a credible possibility of a land invasion.
Well unless you're prepared to see things through, don't start a war. Making repeated pronouncements with bluster and not following through only shows weakness to the enemy. Even the protesters in Iran see how Trump failed them. Silence and action is more powerful than idle chatter.
Nuclear Negotiations are at the Top priority list of the U.S.-Israeli coalition. This has to be settled sooner rather than later. The best mechanism to accomplish such a task is Sanctions & crippling the Digital & Banking infrastructure of Iran. Without a reliable Financial stream of income Iran will have no other choice but to capitulate its nuclear weapons Program.
With respect to arms & Missiles this issue is pointless in this negotiations as Iran can establish military factories in neighbouring countries to produce & import all missiles & weapons or arms when they need them. The same pretty much applies to export of terror! This suggests that all groups who support terror in the region must be held accountable by the Governments where they carry out there activity (like Iraqi forces are suppressing & prospecting such military wings of terror)!
Best way to deal with the Negotiations with Iran remain siege along the line of Hormuz & military operations to protect trade ships by clearing mines & the most effective military operations would require cutting Iran's cables for digital banking and internet that lie under the Starit sea bed; thus, killing their defence optical cables around the Starit & cutting off banking with India & China.
If U.S. maintain there siege they will be able to prevent underwater operations by Iran to sabotage trade & to change these underwater digital cables, which will bankrupt the poor country & bring their consent to non-nuclear weapons development & proliferation to the Negotiations' table.
- Viktor HADJIEV I, the Magnificent, title: Magnus NUCLEUS for Purity of THOUGHT, a Global Intellectual STANDARD
Failing at all 3 strategies doth not a Worthy Foe make (maketh?)
I blame ALL OF THE SHEER FAILURES on Trump getting easily bored. If it doesn't make him Look good or Sound good...
Strategy 1: it takes time to go through the Islamic Republic's "bench". Trump stopped at tier 2. Everyone (who can read Farsi) knows contrary to the disinformation campaigns impossibly suggesting it's unlimited, there's barely 4 tiers.
The Shah's government fell after Amouzegar handed off to Sharif-Emami who handed off to Azhari who left Bakhtiar to end it.
So there's 4 tiers. Once the 4th tier Bakhtiari rookies are left, things go south pretty quickly.
Strategy 2: For Bombing to work, you have to actually take out that which you're seeking to bomb. It's that simple. No further analysis is needed. Other than the US didn't (couldn't ) do that right either.
Strategy 3: An MOU? The only thing missing for all the sheer concessions Trump offered was a personal apology from Trump to the Islamic Republic "...for any inconveniences we may have caused..."
None if these strategic failures, gives Iran ANY POINTS.
The ONLY thing the Islamic Republic knkws how to do is take something/anything mildly valuable hostage and then hold it for ransom.
The Hormuz Straits are 2 miles wide up, 2 miles wide down, with a 2mioe wide median in the middle. It's barely 30 miles wide.
If the US with the mightiest most expensively advanced military in the history of the world cnjot secure barely 180 square miles of oodn shallow lukewarm water, we have a far more serious problem I'm oit hands than the USS Abraham Lincoln toilets clogging, it's laundry catching fire, and its sailors literally trying to jump ship.
The Islamic Republic is a collection of overweight middle manager pissants. Not exactly geniuses with a fetish for martyrdom.
Unfortunately the American people have no interest in rational approaches to Iran after what happened in Vietnam Nam, Afghanistan a Iraq. To effectively achieve regime change we would need an all out invasion with up to 500,000 troops and sustained occupation over several years to root out insurgents, capture and remove nuclear material and bomb making equipment. The cost would be several trillion $. We would need support of the American people and our allies. We would need to enforce a blockade of all Chinese, Russian and North Korean support by land and sea. The current path we are taking has already resulted in an eventual nuclear armed Iran that will threaten its neighbors for the next 100+ years. Time to move on to other priorities.
The lack of an experienced negotiating team with deep expertise on Iran and nuclear issues is clearly one of the many problems in dealing with the mess that Trump and his minions have now created by their precipitous and ill considered war on Iran. While I agree that Plan D as you’ve outlined would be a major, long term step to resolving this now extremely difficult problem, I despair that this Administration has the personnel, intelligence, or the competence to even begin to implement such a plan. Trump is simply hopeless when it comes to the intricacies of foreign policy and with that lack of understanding it is likely that the Iran situation will get much worse before a new Administration will have to tackle the resolution of this debacle which Trump has single-handedly created.
I began a response that sounded much like this one, so instead I'll second what you've articulated.
How about we reinvigorate US commment to domestic and and global fossil fuel alternative advancement, as well as our collective economic and environmental future, once and for all?
Ironically Trump has done more to promote the non-fossil fuel industry than I ever expected. Unfortunately this will take some time to have an impact.
As a long term strategic plan, your suggestions make a lot of sense. In the short term those defensive measures should be prioritized and for God’s sake put some qualified negotiators at the table that don’t include worthless real estate and fund managers, his chosen two are a joke.
Dr. Haass, you might as well be whistling into the wind.
Sadly, I must agree with with your assessment of the likelihood of this plan coming to fruition. The plan makes sense unfortunately this administration lacks the personnel to implement any long term strategy.
Moving away from oil in the current political environment, while eminently feasible and smart, is unlikely. And this essay assumes that the Trump Administration is intelligent, coordinated and able to make long range decisions and none of that has been proven to be the case. Heavens, our fearless leader brags about taking intelligence tests meant to highlight the potential for Alzheimer’s. And everyone in town is afraid of him.
The situation will not be resolved until he’s gone.
Good three-year plan. Unfortunately it won’t help Trump or the Republicans for the Midterms or foreseeable future.
No quick or easy solution for this fiasco, which is turning out to be Trump’s ‘forever’ war.
Do you think it is realistic to expect this even more hardliner Iranian government will agree to the short term state and not try to use the strait to push for further gains?
They don't want to control the strait for nothing. They want to further use it to get sanction relief and restore their proxies and force the hostile forces out of the Gulf countries and force Israel out of Lebanon and restore Hezbollah and ... Their demands are maximalist.
So what are we supposed to do in the meantime?
It is time to stop repeating that this was a war of choice. That does not matter at this point. It has turned into a war of necessity as of now. It threatens vital national interests of the US, including our alliance in the Gulf, the intentional norms about ship traffic with consequences way beyond the strait, ...
The only time they back down is when they face defeat. That is what happened in their war with Iraq. The Iran-Iraq war and how it ended has a lot of lessons, that so called Iran experts don't talk about. They present a false sense of an unrelenting regime that is unwilling to back down no matter what. The hardliners were not happy with the end of Iran-Iraq war, but lack of resources forced them to accept the peace deal.
The only realistic path here is similar: make the Iranian government understand that if they do not back down from their maximalist demands, they will face a massive sustained military force that can lead to their regime to fall.
A war of choice is one that's avoidable, not just in its inception but in its continuance. One that a nation can, if it so chooses, walk away from.
We can walk away from this war--if we do, our interests will be affected, but our interests have already been affected (and for the worse) by starting it. It's harmed our relationship with Israel, it's set back any democratizing movements inside Iran, it's strengthened Iran's reputation in the region, it's demonstrated our inability to wage war effectively, it's shown weaknesses in our defenses of our bases and allies in the region, it's costing us *a lot* of money, and then there's the global economic fallout that's hitting us too, at the gas pump and elsewhere. And we can assume there will be continued loss of US lives.
It's not at all clear any of that can be fixed by more bombing, and the level of warfare that would be needed to make fixing it more likely (but still far from certain) is not something the American people will support.
Iran can't step away this war as long as we're fighting them. They have nowhere to go. For them it's a war of necessity. We can walk away. We've done it before. That's why this is still a war of choice for us.
What may be possible--but which is highly unlikely--is that the president would actually try to make a convincing case to the American people for *why* they should support the war. It's not clear a) he's interested in doing that, b) that even if he was, he could, or c) that anyone could make it, in fact.
Agree, the plan is absurd. The FDD took over Richard’s account.
as well recognized by most commenters, you recommend a measured, multifaceted approach that will need to be sustained with steady, hard nosed diplomacy over many years. I do not see the current administration being able to get to the first sentence of the first paragraph and sustaining anything for more than a week or two. Long term, strategic planning on any issue is not in the skill set.
Does anyone think America has the political will and skills to pull off any of these ideas
Separate, but a related question. When the MOU was announced the price of oil plummeted. The failure of the MOU, as you pointed out, was nearly guaranteed from the start, and intelligent people knew that. Who bid down the price of oil so significantly? Uninformed and wishful retail investors is one answer. How does the administration manipulate (if they do) the oil market. A known doomed plan should not have had such an effect. Are oil traders all Trump supporters who are either wishful thinkers or blind supporters? I appreciate your great analysis, and would appreciate yours or other's thoughts.
Trump has a strategy; ad-hoc, impulsive action with a naivete about the fanatical ideology. They will not be swayed by diplomacy but use it as a ruse to buy time and to fatten their coffers for ongoing jihadi terror.
Unless one follows through to eliminate the regime, the rest is just playing games and a waste of time and money.
So how are you going to get positive regime change? America is upset at 14 deaths as too many. Maybe Israel should be forced to take Kharg Island or we abandon them? How are you going to target the new leaders when idiots told the media how it had been done? Oh , if tRUmP hadn't set up the surrender of Afghanistan; we at least could have built up a credible possibility of a land invasion.
Well unless you're prepared to see things through, don't start a war. Making repeated pronouncements with bluster and not following through only shows weakness to the enemy. Even the protesters in Iran see how Trump failed them. Silence and action is more powerful than idle chatter.
Duh; but you are the one saying we have to keep going till there is regime change. Which did happen. It is just a worse regime.
What action that the US public will support will get positive regime change???
Silent wishful thinking doesn't work. Do you even know what the two main pillars of their National Security strategy are?
Nuclear Negotiations are at the Top priority list of the U.S.-Israeli coalition. This has to be settled sooner rather than later. The best mechanism to accomplish such a task is Sanctions & crippling the Digital & Banking infrastructure of Iran. Without a reliable Financial stream of income Iran will have no other choice but to capitulate its nuclear weapons Program.
With respect to arms & Missiles this issue is pointless in this negotiations as Iran can establish military factories in neighbouring countries to produce & import all missiles & weapons or arms when they need them. The same pretty much applies to export of terror! This suggests that all groups who support terror in the region must be held accountable by the Governments where they carry out there activity (like Iraqi forces are suppressing & prospecting such military wings of terror)!
Best way to deal with the Negotiations with Iran remain siege along the line of Hormuz & military operations to protect trade ships by clearing mines & the most effective military operations would require cutting Iran's cables for digital banking and internet that lie under the Starit sea bed; thus, killing their defence optical cables around the Starit & cutting off banking with India & China.
If U.S. maintain there siege they will be able to prevent underwater operations by Iran to sabotage trade & to change these underwater digital cables, which will bankrupt the poor country & bring their consent to non-nuclear weapons development & proliferation to the Negotiations' table.
- Viktor HADJIEV I, the Magnificent, title: Magnus NUCLEUS for Purity of THOUGHT, a Global Intellectual STANDARD
Failing at all 3 strategies doth not a Worthy Foe make (maketh?)
I blame ALL OF THE SHEER FAILURES on Trump getting easily bored. If it doesn't make him Look good or Sound good...
Strategy 1: it takes time to go through the Islamic Republic's "bench". Trump stopped at tier 2. Everyone (who can read Farsi) knows contrary to the disinformation campaigns impossibly suggesting it's unlimited, there's barely 4 tiers.
The Shah's government fell after Amouzegar handed off to Sharif-Emami who handed off to Azhari who left Bakhtiar to end it.
So there's 4 tiers. Once the 4th tier Bakhtiari rookies are left, things go south pretty quickly.
Strategy 2: For Bombing to work, you have to actually take out that which you're seeking to bomb. It's that simple. No further analysis is needed. Other than the US didn't (couldn't ) do that right either.
Strategy 3: An MOU? The only thing missing for all the sheer concessions Trump offered was a personal apology from Trump to the Islamic Republic "...for any inconveniences we may have caused..."
None if these strategic failures, gives Iran ANY POINTS.
The ONLY thing the Islamic Republic knkws how to do is take something/anything mildly valuable hostage and then hold it for ransom.
The Hormuz Straits are 2 miles wide up, 2 miles wide down, with a 2mioe wide median in the middle. It's barely 30 miles wide.
If the US with the mightiest most expensively advanced military in the history of the world cnjot secure barely 180 square miles of oodn shallow lukewarm water, we have a far more serious problem I'm oit hands than the USS Abraham Lincoln toilets clogging, it's laundry catching fire, and its sailors literally trying to jump ship.
The Islamic Republic is a collection of overweight middle manager pissants. Not exactly geniuses with a fetish for martyrdom.
Decapitate until you reach the 4th tier.
Should take 3 weeks tops. Just like last time.
HOW DO YOU SPELL WE ARE BIBI’S CHUMPS??
It’s stunning that Israel is now bragging about sitting the war out!!
Unfortunately the American people have no interest in rational approaches to Iran after what happened in Vietnam Nam, Afghanistan a Iraq. To effectively achieve regime change we would need an all out invasion with up to 500,000 troops and sustained occupation over several years to root out insurgents, capture and remove nuclear material and bomb making equipment. The cost would be several trillion $. We would need support of the American people and our allies. We would need to enforce a blockade of all Chinese, Russian and North Korean support by land and sea. The current path we are taking has already resulted in an eventual nuclear armed Iran that will threaten its neighbors for the next 100+ years. Time to move on to other priorities.