1. What evidence do you offer to suggest that diplomacy -- which hasn't worked since Obama -- had a chance of working? The Iranians thought they were dealing with Obama/Biden/Kerry and turns out they are not.
Sure economic pressure had a "chance" to effect regime change, but not quickly enough to forestall another 35,000 dead Iranians.
Timing in life is everything.
2. If one concedes there was no "immediate" threat then you have to be able to marshal proof as to how much time does the Middle East have before there is a nuclear Iran? A year, two years?
Everything starts as not urgent, not important and becomes either urgent or important and then both urgent and important. Why wait?
Iran is currently in a critically weak condition politically and economically. The people are ready.
Time waits on no man. Obviously, Trump is not willing to risk another Obama/Biden weakening of resolve.
3. Total gibberish on the issue of regime change as to whether it is political or military. It is clearly both.
In this instance, the military has affected regime change by killing Ayatollah Ali Khamanei -- decapitating the government being a legitimate military tactic.
I recognize you did not know this when you wrote your article.
Once the military has done its job, the population of Iran has an infinitely better chance to change its government without having another 35,000 slaughtered in the streets.
4. Regime ouster is the first step in regime change. It damn sure makes it easier and more likely to succeed.
Iran is run and has been since 1989 by those 4000 persons loyal to Khamanei -- known as the Bayt or Bayt-e Rahbari (translated as the Office of the Supreme Leader) -- starting with his son.
They have looted the country and will flee. They have already been caught by the Mossad's excellent hacking corps moving their money out of the country.
After almost half a century of oppression, violent brutal oppression, the Iranians are eager to take the wheel and guide their country back toward civilization.
5. Again, the Bayt are not going to hang around. If they do, the Mossad knows who they are, where they live, and they will be easy to send to join their Supreme Leader. It is a very small faction to control.
The military -- not the IRGC or the Quds -- will quickly join the people as they are the people.
Hopefully, we do not repeat the mistake of disbanding the army as was done in Iraq.
Everyone is acting like this WAR is a fait accompli. This is an unConstitutional War and one paid for by taxpayers while trump/GOP pocket Billions of bribes to Kushner, trump family, trump from Qatar, Saudis, UAE. Trump sold our US Military as mercenaries to make Mid-East takeover of spheres of influence easier for Saudis, Qatar, UAE. If Congress cannot stop an unConstitutional War quickly, then just say so. Don't expect tax payments to IRS to fund this hot mess of grifters, impotent elected people, criminals, illegal, incompetent appointees. Social contract, faith and trust in a Federal Republic working for We the People is over by breaches by Feds OVER and OVER.
It is beyond pathetic there is no one close to the level of a Richard Haass anywhere near the White House or State dept. No plan, no clue, no strategy, no congress, no good - thank you MAGA.
Well-reasoned, all of it, but you don't mention Israel, which has more to do with this than you acknowledge. This war of choice is designed to help the political fortunes of two unpopular leaders facing elections: Trump and Netanyahu.
Maybe just an attempt to push Epstein off the front page .. Cuba next, and when he meets with Xi who knows? Maybe a Green Light to China to grab Taiwan…
6. The reason there is no loyal opposition awaiting coronation upon the fall of the Khamanei regime is because the regime actively kills its opposition. This is called reality and sometimes reality is messy.
Without a regime conducting wholesale massacres, a government in waiting will take root. It will be messy.
Choose your messy -- Iranians being slaughtered in the streets or forming a governmend from scratch.
The functions of government exist, but they are controlled by the Bayt.
7. You are way off base on both the history and the rationale. The US and the Allies occupied Germany after the war to stabilize the country, to prevent the Russians from obtaining control through fake elections, and to keep it from falling onto the wrong side of the Iron Curtain.
We then executed the Marshal Plan and saved Europe economically.
It is worth noting we won that war.
As to Japan, MacArthur became the Emperor and was an extraordinarily effective and beneficient ruler making gigantic advances in women's right and unions to name a few. This was possible because the Japanese people denounced the influence of the military.
As to Panama, we deposed Noriega, put the legitimate winner of the last election in power, installed a democratic representative republic, and the country has done very well -- arbuably the most stable gov't in south and central America. Huge success story.
Iraq, we completely screwed this up by disbanding the army and allowing all those idle hands to become available to the militias. I would mark Iraq as a failure.
Afghanistan, we didn't win the bloody war. The winners get to write the history and create the future. In 20 bloody years our generals -- all educated men with good degrees, C&GSC, the War College, and graduate degrees -- could not figure out how to defeat a rag tag third world light infantry whilst enjoying personnel superiority, massive firepower, unlimited ammunition, and a smothering intelligence advantage. I blame A'stan on the generals.
8. Trump -- a feature, not a bug -- is a closer. He finishes the job. One of his superpowers is the willingness to wade into problems that have eluded solutions for decades and through countless American presidencies and get to the heart of the matter.
Why allow Iran to become a situation that requires periodic maintenance when it can be finished and corrected for all time?
(continued)
I have to go watch the Tarheels v Va Tech Hokies basketball game. I may or may not be back. Cheers.
Your take is completely obvious given your political leanings and your enmity toward Trump. Perfectly legitimate and I appreciate your thoughtfulness, but your bias is showing.
The room resounds with chants about how this is a war of choice or preference. So what?
War is the outgrowth of unsuccessful diplomacy. Trump ran the sums, saw no progress, and made the next logical step -- he controlled the action.
The US has experience with not controlling the onset of hostilities at Pearl Harbor and the 38th Parallel in Korea. So, color me completely unimpressed with the utterance this is a war of choice.
Given the possibility that Iran's nuclear materials could fall into dangerous hands as Iran falls into chaos, isn't it inevitable that the US will have to put boots on the ground to secure those materials? And given that the US may not know where all those materials are stored, isn't it inevitable that US special forces will be needed on the ground to find those materials?
"Boots on the ground" is one of those shibboleths that is supposed to strike terror into our hearts.
What's the big deal?
So, what, some guys move that shit overseeing a contractor and transfer it somewhere. That was exactly what was contemplated in the failed negotiations -- move the enhanced material to the US.
You seem to have blinders on and are ignoring what I consider are the facts.
1. Iran has been an enemy of the US since the 1979 hostage crisis. This has not changed. How many times have they sworn to destroy the US?
2. They are the principal financial supporters of Hamas and Hezbolla and the Hutis which are all terrorist organizations and want to see the destruction of the US.
3. They are Islamic fundamentalists and want to see the destruction of all western societies. Islam says you can lie to your enemies. So any nuclear treaty we would make with them would alwasys be suspect.
Conclusion1. Now is the time to take them out because after the June 2025 attack they are at their weakest. This regime is an existential threat to not only Israel but to the West.
Conclusion 2. I am disappointed in your narrow minded conclusions. I really am.
Conclusion 3. The world and the Iranian people are better off without this regime and you have neglected that in your analysis.
This was not about nuclear weapons or "war of choice" the people of Iran cried out for help for years. It was getting of a Brutal regime and it's not over. They need to be totally annihilated.
Iran is entrenched into a Socio-economic BLOC & any attack on Iran will be considered an attack on China's & Russia's economic interests as well as against the rest of BRICS countries; thus, any imposition of Foreign Will on Iran other than Diplomatic agreements will face a wider Regional confrontation. It is also understatement to think that Iran will succumb to non-Islamic demands as they would rather die than abandon their strong religious Identity. This conflict will have a devastating result as it will most probably end with nuclear weapon use against Iran due to inability to induce a regime change as a result of air assaults against this country. Obviously, Iran is part of a Socio-economic system that works and produces growth for themselves and their economic partners; thus Global Interferences in Iran's sovereignty will meet with a sever fight!
These are the hardest pressing issues that this Conflict is yet to face and have to properly address. A nuclear weapon use will have a devastating impact on the Whole Region and people living in this part of the World 🌎! - Viktor, title: Magnus NUCLEUS the Highest intellectual TOP in Socio-economic Management & Functioning for Purity of Thought!
Great summary of the current situation unfolding in Iran
1. What evidence do you offer to suggest that diplomacy -- which hasn't worked since Obama -- had a chance of working? The Iranians thought they were dealing with Obama/Biden/Kerry and turns out they are not.
Sure economic pressure had a "chance" to effect regime change, but not quickly enough to forestall another 35,000 dead Iranians.
Timing in life is everything.
2. If one concedes there was no "immediate" threat then you have to be able to marshal proof as to how much time does the Middle East have before there is a nuclear Iran? A year, two years?
Everything starts as not urgent, not important and becomes either urgent or important and then both urgent and important. Why wait?
Iran is currently in a critically weak condition politically and economically. The people are ready.
Time waits on no man. Obviously, Trump is not willing to risk another Obama/Biden weakening of resolve.
3. Total gibberish on the issue of regime change as to whether it is political or military. It is clearly both.
In this instance, the military has affected regime change by killing Ayatollah Ali Khamanei -- decapitating the government being a legitimate military tactic.
I recognize you did not know this when you wrote your article.
Once the military has done its job, the population of Iran has an infinitely better chance to change its government without having another 35,000 slaughtered in the streets.
4. Regime ouster is the first step in regime change. It damn sure makes it easier and more likely to succeed.
Iran is run and has been since 1989 by those 4000 persons loyal to Khamanei -- known as the Bayt or Bayt-e Rahbari (translated as the Office of the Supreme Leader) -- starting with his son.
They have looted the country and will flee. They have already been caught by the Mossad's excellent hacking corps moving their money out of the country.
After almost half a century of oppression, violent brutal oppression, the Iranians are eager to take the wheel and guide their country back toward civilization.
5. Again, the Bayt are not going to hang around. If they do, the Mossad knows who they are, where they live, and they will be easy to send to join their Supreme Leader. It is a very small faction to control.
The military -- not the IRGC or the Quds -- will quickly join the people as they are the people.
Hopefully, we do not repeat the mistake of disbanding the army as was done in Iraq.
(continued)
Everyone is acting like this WAR is a fait accompli. This is an unConstitutional War and one paid for by taxpayers while trump/GOP pocket Billions of bribes to Kushner, trump family, trump from Qatar, Saudis, UAE. Trump sold our US Military as mercenaries to make Mid-East takeover of spheres of influence easier for Saudis, Qatar, UAE. If Congress cannot stop an unConstitutional War quickly, then just say so. Don't expect tax payments to IRS to fund this hot mess of grifters, impotent elected people, criminals, illegal, incompetent appointees. Social contract, faith and trust in a Federal Republic working for We the People is over by breaches by Feds OVER and OVER.
It is beyond pathetic there is no one close to the level of a Richard Haass anywhere near the White House or State dept. No plan, no clue, no strategy, no congress, no good - thank you MAGA.
Or a blessing given the Obama admin outcomes?
Best piece on the military action in Iran today. Clear and descriptive of the US dilemma.
Well-reasoned, all of it, but you don't mention Israel, which has more to do with this than you acknowledge. This war of choice is designed to help the political fortunes of two unpopular leaders facing elections: Trump and Netanyahu.
Maybe just an attempt to push Epstein off the front page .. Cuba next, and when he meets with Xi who knows? Maybe a Green Light to China to grab Taiwan…
Why did the Administration have to strike now? Seems like helping to develop an organized opposition to the current regime would have made more sense?
Isn’t that called nation building? You arm chair would be analysts are so drab
(continued)
6. The reason there is no loyal opposition awaiting coronation upon the fall of the Khamanei regime is because the regime actively kills its opposition. This is called reality and sometimes reality is messy.
Without a regime conducting wholesale massacres, a government in waiting will take root. It will be messy.
Choose your messy -- Iranians being slaughtered in the streets or forming a governmend from scratch.
The functions of government exist, but they are controlled by the Bayt.
7. You are way off base on both the history and the rationale. The US and the Allies occupied Germany after the war to stabilize the country, to prevent the Russians from obtaining control through fake elections, and to keep it from falling onto the wrong side of the Iron Curtain.
We then executed the Marshal Plan and saved Europe economically.
It is worth noting we won that war.
As to Japan, MacArthur became the Emperor and was an extraordinarily effective and beneficient ruler making gigantic advances in women's right and unions to name a few. This was possible because the Japanese people denounced the influence of the military.
As to Panama, we deposed Noriega, put the legitimate winner of the last election in power, installed a democratic representative republic, and the country has done very well -- arbuably the most stable gov't in south and central America. Huge success story.
Iraq, we completely screwed this up by disbanding the army and allowing all those idle hands to become available to the militias. I would mark Iraq as a failure.
Afghanistan, we didn't win the bloody war. The winners get to write the history and create the future. In 20 bloody years our generals -- all educated men with good degrees, C&GSC, the War College, and graduate degrees -- could not figure out how to defeat a rag tag third world light infantry whilst enjoying personnel superiority, massive firepower, unlimited ammunition, and a smothering intelligence advantage. I blame A'stan on the generals.
8. Trump -- a feature, not a bug -- is a closer. He finishes the job. One of his superpowers is the willingness to wade into problems that have eluded solutions for decades and through countless American presidencies and get to the heart of the matter.
Why allow Iran to become a situation that requires periodic maintenance when it can be finished and corrected for all time?
(continued)
I have to go watch the Tarheels v Va Tech Hokies basketball game. I may or may not be back. Cheers.
Your take is completely obvious given your political leanings and your enmity toward Trump. Perfectly legitimate and I appreciate your thoughtfulness, but your bias is showing.
The room resounds with chants about how this is a war of choice or preference. So what?
War is the outgrowth of unsuccessful diplomacy. Trump ran the sums, saw no progress, and made the next logical step -- he controlled the action.
The US has experience with not controlling the onset of hostilities at Pearl Harbor and the 38th Parallel in Korea. So, color me completely unimpressed with the utterance this is a war of choice.
Given the possibility that Iran's nuclear materials could fall into dangerous hands as Iran falls into chaos, isn't it inevitable that the US will have to put boots on the ground to secure those materials? And given that the US may not know where all those materials are stored, isn't it inevitable that US special forces will be needed on the ground to find those materials?
Those materials are not quite far enough along to be dangerous, truly dangerous, make a bomb dangerous.
And no US President could allow those nuclear materials to be sold to the highest bidder. Trump will have to act to secure them.
To get from UF6 -- uranium hexaflouride -- at 60% to weapons grade is not hard work if you got to 60% already. Just time.
It is also not very much material.
Without boring you with the tedious calculations, UF6 is dense and only 60% of the material is actually UF6.
That means the pile of enhanced uranium is larger than just the UF6.
The whole mass of it is reported to be about 441 kg/972 lbs and would occupy about 0.128 cubic meters which is very small. UF6 is heavy as Hell.
Not a huge job to move. We're talking 1000 lbs and 3.5 cubic feet (cubic feet, not cubic meters).
I am ignoring the UF6 at 20% enrichment.
What about a dirty bomb? Set off in NYC? It's a high enough risk for the military can't ignore it. Boots will be put on the ground.
"Boots on the ground" is one of those shibboleths that is supposed to strike terror into our hearts.
What's the big deal?
So, what, some guys move that shit overseeing a contractor and transfer it somewhere. That was exactly what was contemplated in the failed negotiations -- move the enhanced material to the US.
Not a big deal.
You seem to have blinders on and are ignoring what I consider are the facts.
1. Iran has been an enemy of the US since the 1979 hostage crisis. This has not changed. How many times have they sworn to destroy the US?
2. They are the principal financial supporters of Hamas and Hezbolla and the Hutis which are all terrorist organizations and want to see the destruction of the US.
3. They are Islamic fundamentalists and want to see the destruction of all western societies. Islam says you can lie to your enemies. So any nuclear treaty we would make with them would alwasys be suspect.
Conclusion1. Now is the time to take them out because after the June 2025 attack they are at their weakest. This regime is an existential threat to not only Israel but to the West.
Conclusion 2. I am disappointed in your narrow minded conclusions. I really am.
Conclusion 3. The world and the Iranian people are better off without this regime and you have neglected that in your analysis.
This was not about nuclear weapons or "war of choice" the people of Iran cried out for help for years. It was getting of a Brutal regime and it's not over. They need to be totally annihilated.
Iran is entrenched into a Socio-economic BLOC & any attack on Iran will be considered an attack on China's & Russia's economic interests as well as against the rest of BRICS countries; thus, any imposition of Foreign Will on Iran other than Diplomatic agreements will face a wider Regional confrontation. It is also understatement to think that Iran will succumb to non-Islamic demands as they would rather die than abandon their strong religious Identity. This conflict will have a devastating result as it will most probably end with nuclear weapon use against Iran due to inability to induce a regime change as a result of air assaults against this country. Obviously, Iran is part of a Socio-economic system that works and produces growth for themselves and their economic partners; thus Global Interferences in Iran's sovereignty will meet with a sever fight!
These are the hardest pressing issues that this Conflict is yet to face and have to properly address. A nuclear weapon use will have a devastating impact on the Whole Region and people living in this part of the World 🌎! - Viktor, title: Magnus NUCLEUS the Highest intellectual TOP in Socio-economic Management & Functioning for Purity of Thought!
Oh my God! Mr. Haass when you're wrong, you are so wrong...
Wrong about what?
Thank you for writing this much-needed piece.