Special Edition: Reset (July 21, 2024)
Welcome to yet another special edition of Home & Away. So much has happened these last few weeks that special editions risk becoming the norm. Something to reflect on in a spare moment perhaps.
In the meantime, there is President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside as the Democratic Party’s candidate for president this fall. It is the right choice, one that yours truly and many others have been urging for some time. His age was making it impossible for him to make the case that he deserved another four years—and was making it impossible for him to make the case that Donald Trump did not. Better yet from a Democratic Party standpoint, the path is now open for making Trump’s age and capacity a real issue.
It is too soon to write about Biden’s legacy, if for no other reason than his presidency still has some six months left. But by stepping aside he has gone a long way toward eliminating the potential critique that by staying too long he paved the way for someone to succeed him who shared little of his commitment to American democracy and the country’s role in the world. Indeed, had Trump defeated Biden in November, as most polls were forecasting, this would have overshadowed much that Biden accomplished during his term. I expect it was an extremely difficult decision for him to make, and he deserves our thanks and respect for making it and for observing the tenth obligation of any citizen, to put the country first.
The odds are strong that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the nominee. President Biden’s endorsement will help her here. But I still think it better for her that she be seen to earn the nomination by defeating one or more challengers. Some will argue otherwise, that a contest would hurt her. Yes, it might expose some weaknesses. But the process would also hone her political skills, help her be seen as a winner, and allow her to get out from under the shadow of an unpopular president. The process would also shine a spotlight on the Democratic Party at a time it needs to reintroduce itself to the electorate. This is essential, as Donald Trump and J.D. Vance promise to be a formidable ticket. And even were Harris to run and lose to them, my hunch is that she would do far better than Biden would have, improving chances Democrats would gain the House, thereby preventing Republicans from controlling the entire federal government.
As the nominee, Harris would bring to the role developed prosecutorial skills that should serve her well in a campaign. She is well-positioned to take on the extreme anti-abortion stance of this Supreme Court as well as J.D. Vance. She would benefit from the absence of a woman or a minority on the Republican ticket.
One unavoidable challenge she would face is what might be described as the Hubert Humphrey dilemma. Humphrey, as those of my generation will recall, gained the Democratic nomination (also in a convention in Chicago by the way) months after the incumbent president, Lyndon Johnson, stepped aside. Biden’s words today echoed many used by LBJ 56 years ago, the principal difference being that Biden tweeted his statement out and Johnson did it on national television.
The dilemma is this: how to appear to be loyal and take credit for what was popular about a presidency without being weighed down by those policies that proved unpopular. In 1968, it was the Vietnam War that complicated Vice President Humphrey’s run, as he found it hard to distance himself from a policy he had been associated with and from a boss who had little tolerance for disloyalty. Today there is not a single dominant issue, but there is still a need to place daylight between the Democratic nominee and Biden, as incumbency has become a burden at a time many seek change. Anyone doubting this need only look at recent election results in South Africa, India, the UK, and France.
What might this mean for Harris or any Democratic candidate? It would argue for embracing the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, efforts to combat climate change, defending democracy, standing up for access to abortion and birth control, and for providing military assistance to Ukraine. But it would argue that the Democratic nominee distance themselves from a Middle East policy seen by many as too pro-Israel and from policies on the border and crime seen by many as too lax.
What else to say at this moment? If Harris is the choice, her selection of a running mate will be critical. The swing states are still the swing states, and there is a large pool of independent voters to be won over. Governors Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Andy Beshear all come to mind. There are others as well, the point being that there is a strong bench to choose from. The Democrats might be smart to make a play for mid-field now that the Republicans have opted for an end zone.
The only thing for sure is the Democratic Convention is a month away. What was a marathon has become something of a sprint, and what seemed predictable has become anything but. The long hot summer just got cooler.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens