Special Edition: Rupture (February 28, 2025)

It could not have gone worse if Vladimir Putin had scripted it himself. A meeting meant to produce a rapprochement between Ukraine’s leadership and the new administration in Washington instead produced a rupture. The question now is whether that rupture is irrevocable and, more fundamentally, what U.S.-Ukraine relations look like going forward, and in turn what this means for the war between Russia and Ukraine.

It is difficult to discern what was intended as opposed to what happened spontaneously, and to what extent the president and vice president were spoiling for a fight. Whatever their intent, they got one. President Trump began with the odd formulation that the United States was aligned with the world rather than with Ukraine. While he may think such neutrality is a precondition of being a successful diplomat, history suggests otherwise. In the Middle East, for example, it was the United States’ continued and public alignment with Israel that facilitated the historic agreements between Israel and the Arab states as well as the more recent ceasefire in Gaza. Indeed, it was U.S. closeness to Israel that gave it the confidence it needed to compromise while signaling to other regional actors that compromise brokered by the United States was their least bad option.

Things in the Oval Office deteriorated from there. Both Vance and Trump called Zelenskyy disrespectful. Vance went on about how Zelenskyy was ungrateful. Trump then escalated, saying Ukraine was not in a very good position. “You don’t have the cards…Without us you don’t have any cards…You’re either gonna make a deal or we’re out…You’re gambling with World War III.” Trump exaggerated the level of U.S. assistance by a factor of three while simultaneously telling Zelenskyy he needed to be more thankful.

Zelenskyy made a bad situation worse by giving a history lesson on Russia’s repeated violations of ceasefires and diplomatic agreements, interrupting at times, and struggling to hide his frustration. His remark that the United States has the luxury of being bordered by two oceans but that it would eventually feel the threat of Putin seemed especially to set off Trump. On the other hand, it is hard to blame Zelenskyy. His position—favoring a ceasefire but one with security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression—is the right one, but it is not what Trump, who seems to favor a ceasefire built on trusting Putin rather than providing any more assistance to Ukraine, wants to hear.

The question is what comes now. I hope cooler heads prevail, and that the United States and Ukraine find a way to walk back from the brink and work together on a ceasefire that provides Ukraine with the arms and assurances it needs to ensure Russia has an incentive both to agree to a halt in the war and to respect that ceasefire. But this was a long shot before the meeting, and it is even more of one now. Putin has less reason than ever to settle, and Trump seems even more prepared than he was to blame Zelenskyy (whom after the meeting he charged was not “ready for peace”) for the lack of a ceasefire and penalize him and Ukraine for it.

The impact of this exchange will reverberate far beyond Ukraine, which could face the awful choice of agreeing to a flawed ceasefire or holding out as best it can with what support its neighbors can muster. The spectacle of today’s meeting risks further unnerving America’s friends and allies around the world, whose major lesson will be that this mercurial president is someone who might pull the rug out from under them at any moment. Some will choose to appease their more powerful neighbors. Others will look closely at their options for self-sufficiency, including developing nuclear weapons. Adversaries will see opportunity to act with greater abandon, i.e., aggression. Any, much less all, of these developments would hurt U.S. interests.

I have been debating for some time when to date the end of the post-World War II era. There were any number of candidates, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, to 9/11, to the Covid-19 pandemic. But what happened this afternoon merits consideration, as much of the world saw a United States bullying its erstwhile friends rather than standing with them against their enemies. What we witnessed was as sad as it was dangerous.

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