Takeover (July 19, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. Lenin is said to have quipped that there are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen. I have no idea if he actually said it, but either way this was one of those weeks.
It began Saturday with the attempted assassination of Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Then there was the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. And in the background was the growing movement—not yet a flood, but much more than a trickle—to persuade Joe Biden (who came down with Covid mid-week) not to stand for reelection.
Let’s take them in turn. There is still nothing that explains what motivated the young shooter to try to kill the 45th president. The good news is he was unsuccessful, and as I wrote a few days ago, not just Trump but this country dodged a bullet.
Also unclear is why the Secret Service performed as poorly as it appeared to. There was a lack of coordination between it and local law enforcement in ways that remind me of 9/11. And then there was no good explanation as to why no agent was on top of the building that the shooter climbed (the fact the roof was sloped did not deter him) and why the building was not closed off when obviously it was close enough for someone with a gun to reach the stage. Here the parallel that comes to mind is Boeing; something seems to have gone badly amiss with the culture and leadership of the Secret Service.
The Republican National Convention was for the most part impressive. What struck me more than anything else is that the Republican Party has been acquired by Donald Trump and his family. It is best understood as a takeover. Anyone looking for the party of Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan or either Bush would have been confused. Gone is a commitment to strong national security, trade, immigration, fiscal discipline, or small government when it comes to either the economy or the bedroom. Today’s Republican Party is much more in the image of Pat Buchanan: isolationist, protectionist, populist, and nationalist. It is fueled by grievance and resentment more than opportunity, optimism, and freedom.
I will have a good deal to say about foreign policy and an emerging Trump Doctrine in a piece I am writing for Project Syndicate. What I will say now is that it is impossible not to be struck by the pinched sense of America’s national interest beyond its borders. J.D. Vance, the vice-presidential pick, is on the record saying he doesn’t really care what happens in Ukraine one way or the other, while Donald Trump, in a long interview with Bloomberg Businessweek that makes for more interesting reading than Trump’s long, rambling acceptance speech, accuses Taiwan of having taken 100 percent of America’s chip business, saying that it should pay the United States (which he compares to an insurance company) for its defense—before he all but dismisses the ability to defend Taiwan given its distance from the United States and its proximity to China. Trump’s worldview, driven by narrow economic concerns and a transactional approach that often refuses to distinguish between geopolitical friends and foes, fails to appreciate the benefits that the United States enjoys due to its unprecedented network of allies and partners and from 75 years of designing, building, and maintaining institutions and arrangements central to international order.
As for the Democrats, they are belatedly coming to the conclusion that Joe Biden cannot be their standard bearer because he is not only likely to lose but also in the process make it impossible for the party to hold the Senate or win back the House. The polls have a margin of error, but they also have a degree of accuracy. The Trump-Vance ticket is formidable. The prospect of a Republican takeover of the federal government—the White House, Congress, and Supreme Court—has concentrated minds.
As of this writing nothing is certain, and I don’t rule out that the president and his narrowing inner circle might choose to hang on. But it feels like Biden will step aside lest his legacy be stained by a one-sided loss that brought to power people set on undermining much of the good he did over the course of his career and presidency. This is the Ruth Bader Ginsburg precedent and would be the direct result of the decision to stay too long.
Biden’s hesitation has strengthened the odds Vice President Kamala Harris will be at the top of the ticket. But I actually think she would be better served by not having the nomination handed to her. Winning it would give her added political strength (as well as some useful preparation for taking on Trump and Vance) at the same time it would make it easier for her to selectively distance herself from Biden, something I would argue is essential given the anti-incumbent mood and the unpopularity of some of Biden’s policies. But again, such speculation is premised on Biden standing aside, which I would hope he does in the next few days. We will know soon enough.
Richard Haass in the news
Friday, July 12: MSNBC Morning Joe
Tuesday, July 15: Bloomberg Deals: “Centerview Adviser Names Top Geopolitical Risk:” (Subscription required)
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens