Welcome to Home & Away. As this week’s title suggests, matters of war and peace are garnering a good deal of attention despite the arrest of a man in the United Kingdom formerly known as Prince.
Parking hardware in Iran’s neighborhood without a clear political end state is how “limited” actions become open-ended commitments. If there’s no new imminent threat, then “Why now?” isn’t rhetorical. It’s the whole case.
On Ukraine, the contradiction is harder to ignore. You can’t scale back support, float peace plans that freeze aggression in place, and still claim to defend the post-1945 order. A deal that rewards conquest doesn’t end a war. It schedules the next one.
The through-line here is credibility. Article 5. Congressional oversight. Public debate before force. Strip those away and strategy starts to look improvisational.
Wars of choice aren’t just about capability. They’re about clarity. If the ends are fuzzy, the costs rarely are. - Bill, (Rottendog.Substack.Com)
Compare Rubio’s embrace of Orban today with his position while he was in the Senate, during Trump 1. See the letter he signed onto as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee where he warned of Hungary’s serious backsliding from democracy. Meanwhile, Hungary slips further away…
Thanks, Richard. I am beginning to depend on your analyses of the happenings here and abroad for sound, focused information. Plus, I like the way you write.
All international events point to how unprepared the US A and EU, effective NATO is to launch another war against Iran. The rift in the Alliance is so deep that US President has to go above & Beyond his capacities and the capacities of the USA to inflict yet another damage in a region that has been preparing for a wide war.
The security environment has significantly changed and evolved since 2003 or earlier wars in the region against Iraq & Afghanistan. There is Turkiye and Saudi as well as Qatar who oppose military strikes in Iran. We have BRICS in place - an economic alliance that pushes war efforts which will now multiply economic loses and exacerbate both regional & global decline.
The best way to describe TRUMP'S war efforts in Iran is by using the word UNPREPARED! The US is not prepared to win this WAR against Iran nor fight a long-term war with Russia & open a possible new confrontation with China in defence of TAIWAN. USA is getting the whole world in a Global War, where non of the actors are ready & willing to live the experience.
The best way to neutralise nuclear Iran is to let them know that if nuclear weapons program continues; then, NATO will nuclear strike Iran before their weapon is developed. By becoming a nuclear target, Iran will think twice about their nuclear weapon ambition and terror threats in the region. This is reality and best news from the TOP of Global POLITICS! - Viktor
Richard, two observations from someone who spent nearly two decades managing sovereign capital in the Gulf.
First, on Iran: the question you raise — "why now?" — is the one that keeps sovereign risk analysts awake. From where I sit, the absence of a new threat is precisely the point. The timing suggests the military buildup is less about Iran's nuclear program and more about domestic political sequencing ahead of the midterms. But the Gulf doesn't have the luxury of treating this as theater. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. The moment those carrier groups move, every energy ministry from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi starts activating contingency plans that took years to build. The 10% oil price increase you note is the appetizer. A credible Hormuz disruption scenario takes you to $120+ in weeks.
Second, on the Board of Peace: housing it in the gutted USIP is more symbolic than people realize. For sovereign wealth funds that have spent decades building relationships with American institutions, the systematic dismantling of the institutional architecture isn't just concerning — it's repricing. Institutional credibility is an asset class. It doesn't appear on a balance sheet, but it determines where long-term capital flows. When you hollow out the institution and rename it, you're not just making a political statement. You're eroding the very thing that makes US Treasuries the world's risk-free asset.
Your instinct to "short" the Board of Peace is correct. The absence of principal allies and the presence of Russia tells you everything about whether this is a governance mechanism or a photo opportunity.
In a filthy sea of gossip news, the rising fear of a Republican dictatorship, and the threat of wars over Venezuela, Iran, Gaza, etc., it’s such a relief to hear the voice of reason, sensibility, and insight from Haas.
With Midterms approaching, so as to ensure his party's dominance: start a war, rally the people, inspire "USA" chants, and win in November as few deny a "wartime" President.
Parking hardware in Iran’s neighborhood without a clear political end state is how “limited” actions become open-ended commitments. If there’s no new imminent threat, then “Why now?” isn’t rhetorical. It’s the whole case.
On Ukraine, the contradiction is harder to ignore. You can’t scale back support, float peace plans that freeze aggression in place, and still claim to defend the post-1945 order. A deal that rewards conquest doesn’t end a war. It schedules the next one.
The through-line here is credibility. Article 5. Congressional oversight. Public debate before force. Strip those away and strategy starts to look improvisational.
Wars of choice aren’t just about capability. They’re about clarity. If the ends are fuzzy, the costs rarely are. - Bill, (Rottendog.Substack.Com)
Compare Rubio’s embrace of Orban today with his position while he was in the Senate, during Trump 1. See the letter he signed onto as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee where he warned of Hungary’s serious backsliding from democracy. Meanwhile, Hungary slips further away…
https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/05-10-19%20Letter-Orban.pdf
Thanks, Richard. I am beginning to depend on your analyses of the happenings here and abroad for sound, focused information. Plus, I like the way you write.
All international events point to how unprepared the US A and EU, effective NATO is to launch another war against Iran. The rift in the Alliance is so deep that US President has to go above & Beyond his capacities and the capacities of the USA to inflict yet another damage in a region that has been preparing for a wide war.
The security environment has significantly changed and evolved since 2003 or earlier wars in the region against Iraq & Afghanistan. There is Turkiye and Saudi as well as Qatar who oppose military strikes in Iran. We have BRICS in place - an economic alliance that pushes war efforts which will now multiply economic loses and exacerbate both regional & global decline.
The best way to describe TRUMP'S war efforts in Iran is by using the word UNPREPARED! The US is not prepared to win this WAR against Iran nor fight a long-term war with Russia & open a possible new confrontation with China in defence of TAIWAN. USA is getting the whole world in a Global War, where non of the actors are ready & willing to live the experience.
The best way to neutralise nuclear Iran is to let them know that if nuclear weapons program continues; then, NATO will nuclear strike Iran before their weapon is developed. By becoming a nuclear target, Iran will think twice about their nuclear weapon ambition and terror threats in the region. This is reality and best news from the TOP of Global POLITICS! - Viktor
Robio has to be held to account (2028?) for his part in the US deconstruction. To support Viktor Orban, even if under Trump orders, is unforgivable.
The vocal delivery of Dr. Richard Nathan Haass on Home & Away as well as on Katie Couric's podcast has impressed me.
It is calming, soothing, therefore easy to listen to. I can hear it/take it in, in ease, not with a number of others, for me, though.
I lose more of my focus, concentration, from time to time, with others.
Did Dr. Richard N. Haass voice his [Home&Away] writing himself?
Only in a Trump world would Sec. Rubio’s speech in Munich get a good review. It was only slightly less awful than the one Vance gave about a year ago.
Richard, two observations from someone who spent nearly two decades managing sovereign capital in the Gulf.
First, on Iran: the question you raise — "why now?" — is the one that keeps sovereign risk analysts awake. From where I sit, the absence of a new threat is precisely the point. The timing suggests the military buildup is less about Iran's nuclear program and more about domestic political sequencing ahead of the midterms. But the Gulf doesn't have the luxury of treating this as theater. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. The moment those carrier groups move, every energy ministry from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi starts activating contingency plans that took years to build. The 10% oil price increase you note is the appetizer. A credible Hormuz disruption scenario takes you to $120+ in weeks.
Second, on the Board of Peace: housing it in the gutted USIP is more symbolic than people realize. For sovereign wealth funds that have spent decades building relationships with American institutions, the systematic dismantling of the institutional architecture isn't just concerning — it's repricing. Institutional credibility is an asset class. It doesn't appear on a balance sheet, but it determines where long-term capital flows. When you hollow out the institution and rename it, you're not just making a political statement. You're eroding the very thing that makes US Treasuries the world's risk-free asset.
Your instinct to "short" the Board of Peace is correct. The absence of principal allies and the presence of Russia tells you everything about whether this is a governance mechanism or a photo opportunity.
The most useful part is the escalation logic: when coercion fails, the ‘what then’ becomes inevitable unless off-ramps are designed, not wished for.
with all the depressing news in this, I got a big laugh over the pickleball fighting. Gotta love such absurdity.
In a filthy sea of gossip news, the rising fear of a Republican dictatorship, and the threat of wars over Venezuela, Iran, Gaza, etc., it’s such a relief to hear the voice of reason, sensibility, and insight from Haas.
I see the carrier Gerald Ford was formerly in the caribbean-no more drug trafficking?
With Midterms approaching, so as to ensure his party's dominance: start a war, rally the people, inspire "USA" chants, and win in November as few deny a "wartime" President.
The Board of Peace is ____ (fill in your desired phrase; mine is Fools).