Welcome to Home & Away. I have spent much of the week in the UK, in Oxford and London to be precise, where, among other things, I delivered a lecture, gave a talk, and co-taught a class as the inaugural Margaret MacMillan North American Distinguished Visiting Lecturer at St. Antony’s College, Oxford. St. Antony’s is where I did my master’s and doctorate, and where Margaret, one of the leading historians of our—or any—time, served as warden for a decade. It was a treat to spend time with her and the impressive students. The only thing that did not echo my memories was the brilliant sunny weather.
trump goes with the money-he'll abandon bebe,and try to distinguish between israel's actions and being anti-semitic-what we've been saying for years-and the deal with iran-similar to obama's-i laugh and i cry
My thanks for another stimulating piece from Dr. Haass....
Dr. Haass writes:
"[President Trump] is the first modern occupant of the Oval Office to place economic interests (as opposed to strategic or diplomatic considerations) at the heart of U.S. foreign policy."
Might Dr. Haass be giving President Trump too much credit? Taking along corporate CEOs on an international trip and negotiating a handful of business deals seems a far cry from making America's economic interests paramount.
I am unaware of any genuine overriding governing principle of this Administration, which so easily turns and trims. Am I missing something?
Let's not even touch on this Administration's damage to aviation safety, public health, accurate government statistics, our intelligence services, trust among our longtime overseas friends and allies, etc. etc....
Instead, let's focus on economics. President Trump is hurting America's long-term economic competitiveness and economic viability.
Let me take but one example....
In every affluent economy -- and in some developing economies -- birth rates are falling well below the 2.1-child-per-woman replacement level. This will cause dire long-term prospects for our labor markets and for the solvency of our social insurance systems (Medicare and Social Security). This problem faces not only the United States, but advanced economies the world over.
Nicholas Eberstadt of AEI wrote in "Foreign Affairs" that "[in 2023,] the Census Bureau projected that the U.S. population would peak around 2080 and head into a continuous decline thereafter."
"The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Gray"
Understandably, the Administration calls for higher U.S. birth rates. That's nice. Yet the Trump Administration still opposes maternity leave for new mothers.
We need lawful, controlled immigration to sustain our long-term economy. Immigrants are disproportionately entrepreneurial. They pay taxes. Generally, their children assimilate, pursue education, and become productive members of society. (One of President Trump's favorite Presidents, Andrew Jackson, was the son of immigrants.)
At a time when the ratio between social-insurance beneficiaries to social-insurance payroll-tax contributors is escalating, we urgently need immigration.
And not just educated and skilled immigrants.
We even need unskilled immigrants, to pick fruit and vegetables in California, and to serve as health aides and orderlies throughout the United States. (When my nonagenarian father suffered health problems, many of his health aides were immigrants from the Caribbean.)
Lawful immigrants -- and even illegal immigrants -- have lower crime rates than native-born Americans. That is a fact. I do not defend unlawful immigration. But let's not forget that the current President, while out of office, opposed immigration reform co-sponsored by conservative Republican Oklahoma U.S. Senator James Lankford. Thus, if President Trump seeks someone to blame for a border crisis, he can look in the mirror.
When I was a small child, in 1968, Stanford Professor Paul Ehrlich and his wife Anne Ehrlich published an alarmist book, "The Population Bomb," which predicted hundreds of millions of deaths from starvation. The Ehrlichs were wrong.
In his "Foreign Affairs" piece, Nicholas Eberstadt predicts world population will starting *shrinking* in this century:
"The consensus among demographic authorities today is that the global population will peak later this century and then start to decline. Some estimates suggest that this might happen as soon as 2053, others as late as the 2070s or 2080s."
The 2070's and the 2080's will be within the lifetimes of younger Substack readers.
Years ago, I was a Scout. Our watchword was "Be Prepared."
Let America -- and all the world's advanced economies -- be prepared. Prepared over the long term for the solvency of our social-insurance systems and the productive growth of our labor markets.
The only economic interests Trump promoted in the Middle East were his own, and those of his family’s organization. They were NOT American economic interests.
You don't have to look back to Andrew Jackson for an example of an immigrant who made good. How about Trump's first wife Ivana and his current wife Melania? Both of them were credits to the economic ledgers and strong proponents of volunteerism. They both had significant impacts.
trump goes with the money-he'll abandon bebe,and try to distinguish between israel's actions and being anti-semitic-what we've been saying for years-and the deal with iran-similar to obama's-i laugh and i cry
My thanks for another stimulating piece from Dr. Haass....
Dr. Haass writes:
"[President Trump] is the first modern occupant of the Oval Office to place economic interests (as opposed to strategic or diplomatic considerations) at the heart of U.S. foreign policy."
Might Dr. Haass be giving President Trump too much credit? Taking along corporate CEOs on an international trip and negotiating a handful of business deals seems a far cry from making America's economic interests paramount.
I am unaware of any genuine overriding governing principle of this Administration, which so easily turns and trims. Am I missing something?
Let's not even touch on this Administration's damage to aviation safety, public health, accurate government statistics, our intelligence services, trust among our longtime overseas friends and allies, etc. etc....
Instead, let's focus on economics. President Trump is hurting America's long-term economic competitiveness and economic viability.
Let me take but one example....
In every affluent economy -- and in some developing economies -- birth rates are falling well below the 2.1-child-per-woman replacement level. This will cause dire long-term prospects for our labor markets and for the solvency of our social insurance systems (Medicare and Social Security). This problem faces not only the United States, but advanced economies the world over.
Nicholas Eberstadt of AEI wrote in "Foreign Affairs" that "[in 2023,] the Census Bureau projected that the U.S. population would peak around 2080 and head into a continuous decline thereafter."
"The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Gray"
by Nicholas Eberstadt
Foreign Affairs
November/December 2024
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-gone-gray-nicholas-eberstadt
Understandably, the Administration calls for higher U.S. birth rates. That's nice. Yet the Trump Administration still opposes maternity leave for new mothers.
We need lawful, controlled immigration to sustain our long-term economy. Immigrants are disproportionately entrepreneurial. They pay taxes. Generally, their children assimilate, pursue education, and become productive members of society. (One of President Trump's favorite Presidents, Andrew Jackson, was the son of immigrants.)
At a time when the ratio between social-insurance beneficiaries to social-insurance payroll-tax contributors is escalating, we urgently need immigration.
And not just educated and skilled immigrants.
We even need unskilled immigrants, to pick fruit and vegetables in California, and to serve as health aides and orderlies throughout the United States. (When my nonagenarian father suffered health problems, many of his health aides were immigrants from the Caribbean.)
Lawful immigrants -- and even illegal immigrants -- have lower crime rates than native-born Americans. That is a fact. I do not defend unlawful immigration. But let's not forget that the current President, while out of office, opposed immigration reform co-sponsored by conservative Republican Oklahoma U.S. Senator James Lankford. Thus, if President Trump seeks someone to blame for a border crisis, he can look in the mirror.
When I was a small child, in 1968, Stanford Professor Paul Ehrlich and his wife Anne Ehrlich published an alarmist book, "The Population Bomb," which predicted hundreds of millions of deaths from starvation. The Ehrlichs were wrong.
In his "Foreign Affairs" piece, Nicholas Eberstadt predicts world population will starting *shrinking* in this century:
"The consensus among demographic authorities today is that the global population will peak later this century and then start to decline. Some estimates suggest that this might happen as soon as 2053, others as late as the 2070s or 2080s."
The 2070's and the 2080's will be within the lifetimes of younger Substack readers.
Years ago, I was a Scout. Our watchword was "Be Prepared."
Let America -- and all the world's advanced economies -- be prepared. Prepared over the long term for the solvency of our social-insurance systems and the productive growth of our labor markets.
Mark Bernkopf
Arlington, Virginia
The only economic interests Trump promoted in the Middle East were his own, and those of his family’s organization. They were NOT American economic interests.
Excellent summary of problems we face
You don't have to look back to Andrew Jackson for an example of an immigrant who made good. How about Trump's first wife Ivana and his current wife Melania? Both of them were credits to the economic ledgers and strong proponents of volunteerism. They both had significant impacts.
I always learn from you. Wish you were back in government negotiations.
I do question G.W. Bush's idealism when it came to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.